In Contention
By Josh Spiegel
December 4, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Before we get to the NBR awards, though, it's worth pointing out one other major awards group that announced its nominations for 2009: the Film Independent Spirit Awards, which is essentially the indie version of the Oscars. Their Best Feature nominees are Sin Nombre, Precious, The Last Station, (500) Days of Summer, and Amreeka. Other notable nominees include the Coen Brothers as Best Director nominees for A Serious Man, Paranormal Activity, the low-budget, high-profit ghost story as Best First Feature nominee, Greg Mottola's script for Adventureland getting nommed for Best Screenplay, and Jemain Clement of Flight of the Conchords receiving a Best Supporting Actor nomination for Gentlemen Broncos.
It's worth noting that, even though movies such as Precious and possibly (500) Days of Summer or The Last Station will get some Oscar love, the Independent Spirit Awards are not often a solid predictor of Oscar gold; though they have sometimes predicted Best Picture Oscar nominees, including Juno, Brokeback Mountain, and Sideways, in the past ten years, none of their nominees or winners of the Best Feature award have ever gone on to won the Best Picture Oscar. Granted, the current buzz would tell us that not only is Precious going to be nominated for the big prize, but will likely walk away with it. If anything, the Independent Spirit Awards are interesting to consider, and worthy of recognition, but not a solid arbiter of anything Best Picture-related.
This year, the NBR has chosen Up in the Air, the George Clooney comedy-drama from Juno director Jason Reitman as its best picture of the year. In alphabetical order, the NBR's other top ten films of the year are An Education, (500) Days of Summer, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Invictus, The Messenger, A Serious Man, Star Trek, Up, and Where the Wild Things Are. Other notable winners are Clint Eastwood as Best Director for Invictus, Woody Harrelson as Best Supporting Actor for The Messenger, Morgan Freeman and Clooney tying as Best Actor winners, and It's Complicated winning for Best Ensemble Cast. The most notable exclusions are Precious, Nine, and The Lovely Bones. So what does this all mean?
For me, among the list of the NBR's best films of 2009, the final three films are most notable. Science-fiction films usually don't float the NBR's proverbial boat; though it's certainly one of the most commercial sci-fi films of recent years and extremely accessible, that Star Trek got on the list is a pleasant surprise. Up, still my favorite film of the year, getting on the list is also encouraging for its Best Picture Oscar prospects. This wild adventure about an elderly man flying to Venezuela via house and balloons is considered a relatively sure thing for Oscar, but getting nominations in as many places as possible is nothing but great. The final slot, for Spike Jonze's indie kiddie movie, is a bit of a surprise, as well, as the film divided many critics and moviegoers. What does this mean for the three surprising snubs? The Lovely Bones is meeting some criticism in a few circles, as is Nine. Still, the race has just begun and the NBR isn't always the best arbiter of Oscar gold.
How reliable can we take the National Board of Review? Well, on the one hand, in the past five years, the Best Picture Oscar winner has been on their list of the top ten; they also chose Slumdog Millionaire and No Country for Old Men as their best pictures of the respective years. However, in 2003, they not only didn't choose The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King as their best picture, but didn't even put the Oscar-winning film on their top-ten list. It's worth noting, especially because this group doesn't cotton well to science fiction or animation; only WALL-E, of all the sterling Pixar films since 2003, has shown up on their top-ten lists. Also, in four of the past six years, they have missed one Best Picture Oscar nominee, including, most egregiously, There Will Be Blood in 2007.
Of course, it's pretty damn hard this year to handicap the Oscar race, harder than any year in the recent past. Why? Well, for those of you who've been living under a rock (or those of you who avoid Oscar news and chatter until this time of year), this year's Best Picture Oscar will have ten nominees, not five. Granted, this list of ten will more easily match with, say, the National Board of Review, or the two categories of Best Picture nominees that the Golden Globes offer. Still, for many handicappers, the Oscar race for Best Picture has become a complete free-for-all. How does Star Trek sound as a Best Picture nominee? How about District 9? The Blind Side? The Hangover? Then, there are those folks who assume that having ten nominees for Best Picture will only add to the amount of artsy movies nominated, despite no one outside of New York City or Los Angeles having seen them.
Your esteemed Oscar writer assumes neither of those...and both of those, I guess. Of the popular movies I listed above, the two that have the biggest chance, as of right now, are Star Trek and District 9. Before those of you out there who would rather choke on their own bile before seeing James Tiberius Kirk as a Best Picture Oscar nominee (kind of), let me throw out a few names for you: Jaws. Raiders of the Lost Ark. E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial. Star Wars. All of these popular movies have been nominated for Best Picture; for some non-Spielberg/Lucas examples, I can offer The Fugitive and Babe. Are these high-toned arthouse pictures? No. Were they really among the best films of their years? That question, of course, has absolutely no meaning to Oscar voters, nor should it have any meaning to any of us. But if a movie about a killer shark, or a lonely alien, or a talking pig can get nominated for the big award, why not Star Trek? Why not District 9?
Right now, it's still hard to say what movies are locks for the upcoming Best Picture nomination list and what movies aren't. The conventional wisdom has movies such as Up in the Air, Precious, An Education, and The Hurt Locker as being among the movies that could be considered locks for Best Picture. Other solid possible movies are Nine, The Lovely Bones, A Serious Man, A Single Man, and Inglourious Basterds. Of course, the movie that will likely grab the attention of most normal moviegoers and potential Oscar viewers is, still in some ways, the unlikeliest candidate of all: Up. The latest film from Disney/Pixar, about a grumpy old man who lifts his house up on helium balloons to go to Venezuela, is one of the highest-grossing films of the year, having made nearly $300 million domestically and equally high numbers internationally. Does Up have what it takes to be a Best Picture Oscar nominee?
There are mitigating factors on both sides of this question. On the one hand, Up would be only the second animated film to ever get nominated for Best Picture; the other film was 1991's Disney classic Beauty and the Beast. Also, with the Best Animated Feature category still in existence (though there had been some rumors earlier this year that the Oscar committee was going to nix it), some Oscar voters could assume that Up should only be nominated in that category. On the other hand, Up is exactly the kind of movie that those who decided a change in the number of nominations was necessary want to get nominated. It's an incredibly popular film, well-liked, and loved by some (yours truly included on that list). The movie was made by a company that's won plenty of Oscars before, and is heavily marketing the film to the voters.
Perhaps the strongest argument for Up being nominated is that 2009 just doesn't seem like a great year for movies. Ironic, of course, considering that AMPAS decided to make this the year with twice the Best Picture nominees. Though 2008 was also a weak year, 2009 seems decidedly weaker; though it is far-fetched that The Hangover could be a Best Picture nominee, it's a popular movie and the field is weak enough that even the upcoming romantic comedy It's Complicated could get nominated for the award. This year, more than any other, for more reasons than just the doubled field of nominees, the race for Best Picture is wide open. Up being nominated may seem crazy to you, but think of this: the damn thing might win. Might, not will. Don't forget one thing about the Oscars: no matter what anyone tells you, there is no such thing as a lock.