Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
November 30, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Old Dogs, the Wild Hogs knockoff from Disney, earned $24.2 million over the five-day portion of the Thanksgiving holiday. How should the studio feel about this result?
Josh Spiegel: Considering how horrendous the reviews were for this movie, Disney should be thrilled. If, however, they were hoping for Old Dogs to perform as well as Wild Hogs did, they're probably very disappointed. I would bet good money that, had Old Dogs opened back in the spring, as was originally intended, the movie would have made more money, if only because it might have had a less crowded marketplace to deal with. As it is, this movie proves once and for all that Robin Williams should avoid comedy and Seth Green should take this paycheck and be thankful he gets to make Robot Chicken.
Sean Collier: I'm not so sure that broad family comedies with crotch pain a-plenty are affected by reviews, so this might be seen as a bit of a failure. What might've been a big family compromise choice over the long weekend seems to have been railroaded by The Blind Side, so I think Josh is right - money was left on the table by releasing this dud now.
Tom Macy: Disney's gotta be a little disappointed as there was no real perceived family comedy competition at the box office this weekend, and Thanksgiving weekend is usually conducive to big business for family films. Plus, Old Dogs doppelganger Wild Hogs' surprisingly lucrative opening of nearly $40 million beat out the vastly superior Zodiac, which came in around $13 million (I often reference that weekend to demonstrate the infuriating world of box office injustices). This probably had them thinking more in that ballpark when they booked this weekend. Guess they were "Blind Sided" like the rest of us. Can't wait to see how many of you make that pun.
George Rose: This is way more than I expected it to earn. Old Dogs looked like a rip-off of Wild Hogs, which was a success in the vein of lightning in a bottle. That was a one time perfect storm, where even the worst concept ever could become a smash hit, mostly because of the high profile cast. I was flabbergasted when it broke even $100 million, though I knew the novelty title would never catch lightning twice. I doubt a sequel will even be able to carry the momentum, so a poor-quality clone doesn't stand a chance. If anything, I hope this is a warning to halt production on Wild Hogs 2. Making fun of once popular stars for being old just isn't that funny.
Michael Lynderey: On paper, this was obviously intended to play out just like Wild Hogs did - some big stars teaming up for a broad mid-life crisis comedy. Putting a few child actors in there was a particularly brilliant movie - get kids to see it, too. But Old Dogs' downward spiral started before it came out - I would guess it was around the summer of 2007, when the movie started filming, and the studio saw the dailies and realized what they had on their hands here - namely, not a very good movie. But this is still a $50 million earner at the minimum, so the studio should be pleased. They almost certainly got the best result possible out of a bad scenario. And it was nice to see Bernie Mac again, for the last time.
Tim Briody: This is disappointing even for something with terrible reviews. It seemed middle of the road enough that it should have done better over five days, and now it gets to fly completely off a cliff next weekend.
Jim Van Nest: The answer here depends highly on the wording of your question. For the STUDIO, which is what you asked, I'm with Tim. For a family film released over the five-day Thanksgiving weekend. Disney had to be expecting more from it. From MY point of view, I'm surprised it made as much as it did. I have kids and I'm down with all of the stupid family films that studios churn out. The dog hotel thing with Don Cheadle - saw it. Daddy Day Care AND Daddy Day Camp - saw 'em. So, I know my family crap...and even I don't plan to sit through this one.
Jason Lee: Totally agree with Tim. This was never going to be another Wild Hogs (and thank god for that) but still, Disney had to think that this film would be their feel-good, live-action comedy for the Thanksgiving-through-Christmas period. Disney had better hope that The Princess and the Frog does well otherwise it will NOT be a merry Christmas at the mouse house.
Reagen Sulewski: This is the kind of result that leaves no one truly happy. It's not big enough to really consider a hit, but the angry mob that would like to see its cast and crew dragged into the street for public mocking are left unsatisfied as well. While it's clear that the abysmal reviews knocked this down some (and viewers' own eyes - though I often don't give them credit for ferreting out crap like this) I think this ultimately becomes a forgettable and regrettable footnote to both Williams' and Travolta's careers.
Kim Hollis: It's not an out and out disaster, exactly. Considering the horrible reviews and lack of any real high profile marketing, it's pretty clear that Disney didn't have a lot invested in this one. It's going to do fine on DVD, and frankly, that's what they're going to care about in this case. The movie's release serves as an extended commercial for when people see it in the video store and say, ooh, Robin Williams! Let's rent it!
Max Braden: I think they must have been seeing Wild Hogs dollar signs all during production, so this must be a disappointment. Old Dogs did seem like the no brainer (apropos) choice for the whole family in the midst of turkey coma bliss. And despite the quality difference, three weeks ago based on trailers alone I still would have guessed Old Dogs would beat The Blind Side this weekend. Back in the summer of 1997 when Robin Williams did the similarly themed Fathers' Day with Billy Crystal, the movie was second place its opening weekend against The Fifth Element. This opening beats anything Williams has had a significant role in since Patch Adams, so he can thank Travolta for that much, I guess.
He's a ninja named Rain, people! How can you not want to see this?
Kim Hollis: Ninja Assassin, Warner Bros' attempt to remind people that ninjas are so much cooler than vampires, earned $21.2 million over the five-day holiday period. What do you make of this performance?
Josh Spiegel: It seems like the idea of the ninja is much more popular than a ninja movie. I would imagine that Warner Bros. isn't thrilled with this result, considering how much money the overall weekend brought in from other movies; however, considering that the film's star, Rain, is a massive superstar back in Asia, the international gross will probably be all this movie needs to make some serious buck. Just too bad that ninja movies seem to get any mainstream recognition.
Tom Macy: How much can you really expect much from a film with the second unit director of Attack of the Clones and the Matrix Sequels at the helm? This result is pretty decent, I'd say. I never thought this would amount to much. When Jackie Chan and slapstick aren't involved, martial arts films usually don't climb too high. The Mummy 3 nearly doubled Jet Li's previously highest grossing film. This looked more suited for the first weekend of September rather than a holiday. And you gotta think Warner is reasonably pleased with this outcome in the face of so many other heavy hitters.
Sean Collier: I'm just bewildered at the decision to release Ninja Assassin into a crowded marketplace. Released in a dead zone - maybe March or early October - I can see this film winning a weekend. With so many other choices, and in a family-dominated spot on the calendar, it didn't really find its footing. Still, not a dreadful result.
Jim Van Nest: Sean, I think releasing Ninja Assassin here was WB's idea of counter-programming. "Let's see, we've got sissy vampires, blonde Sandy Bullock, Robin Williams and John Travolta...this is the perfect time to release an ultra cool and violent ninja flick." Maybe they were counting on all the boyfriends that got dragged to see New Moon last weekend cashing in on the "owe you one" from their girlfriends. Sorry, Warner Bros...I think they took their "owe you one" elsewhere, if you know what I mean.
Michael Lynderey: Ninjas are cooler than vampires. But Ninja Assassin is just the latest entry in the late-November B-action sweepstakes, and it's playing out almost exactly like its two immediate predecessors - Hitman and Transporter 2. Just like them, Ninja really has no audience outside of the hardcore action base, so I'd say a total of right under $40 million is pretty good - especially considering this is a film with no stars, no source material to draw audiences from, and meh reviews. That coolness we were talking about must count for a lot.
Kim Hollis: I'd agree with this assessment, Michael. I have to think the WB is pretty pleased with where this is going based on its somewhat limited appeal and unknown stars. It's going to do fine overseas and DVD returns for this type of thing are always solid, too.
Shalimar Sahota: This result is kind of expected, really. It was only really going to appeal to those interested in what those from The Matrix stable of cast and crew were doing (Wachowski Brothers as producers, James McTeigue from V For Vendetta directing, Rain from Speed Racer in the lead role). The story is as simple as they come and the trailer relies on lots of flashy visuals and blade-throwy sound effects to entice the viewer.
George Rose: The previews looked out of control, with no story or direction to guide the over-the-top action. I wasn't surprised when the negative reviews started to pour in. It's safe to say ninjas aren't cooler than vampires, or at least they aren't as bankable. The marketing was also significantly less invasive than New Moon's, so that probably contributed to the weak debut. Ninjas can be cool; Ninja Assassin just wasn't the title to showcase that. What we can really all learn from this is how little people care about the Wachowski brothers and James McTeigue.
Jason Lee: The audience for this film was always going to be limited to fanboys and geeks - it's just a little too Asian to appeal to a wider action audience. This made pretty much what I expected it would.
Reagen Sulewski: I disagree that this film was some secret blockbuster in the making if only it had a better release date. What was its competition in its demo this weekend? That it even got as high as it did is thanks to the evidently still potent pull that the Wachowski name has. This might be the first blockbuster movie with more ironic viewers than sincere ones.
Max Braden: Tony Jaa's second movie opened at $5 million, and The Forbidden Kingdom with Jackie Chan and Jet Li opened last year to $21 million. I think that for a martial arts movie without a well-known star, you can say Ninja Assassin did very well. Last year's Thanksgiving action flick Transporter 3 pulled in $18 million over the five-day period.