Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
November 23, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: The Twilight Saga: New Moon set box office records for midnight sneaks and single day revenue on its way to earning $142.8 million this weekend, the third biggest three-day opening weekend ever. Explain this result, please.
Reagen Sulewski: You know how in every Lovecraft story, there's a character that looks too far into the abyss and goes irretrievably mad as a result? Yeah, I kind of feel like that at this point.
Tom Macy: I really can't explain it, because I honestly don't understand it. It baffles me that a film so universally embraced by the public - or enough of the public - to the point where it's the third highest opening weekend off all time is one I have literally no interest in seeing. I'm a huge sucker for event films. Looking at the list of all time opening weekends I've seen 20 out of the top 30 within the first three days of release. I chalked the popularity of this Twilight business up to the Jonas Brothers crowd going crazy but man, was I wrong. Is it just that people have been wanting movie about romantic vampires in their teens all along? Because if that's the case I'm sure Dracula: The Football Years would have been made a long time ago.
Josh Spiegel: Sigh. I guess my hopes last week were very out there. Based on the crowd that surrounded me on Saturday morning at 8:45 (also known as my entry as Best Husband of the Year), I'm not surprised, but I am disappointed. One day, not far from now, a lot of the people who went crazy for all of these characters are going to wonder what the hell they were thinking. This movie is just...it's obviously a phenomenon of massive proportions, but the fervor is, in my opinion, wildly misplaced. Summit Entertainment should be thrilled, and spend some of the dough on pushing The Hurt Locker as a Best Picture nominee.
Sean Collier: The best explanation that I can come up with is that Stephanie Meyer has created a legion of comic-book style obsessed fans in a previously underserved(ish) demographic. The legions of 10-to-18-year-old girls obsessed with this material is much larger than we estimated, and the horde seems to behave more like Star Wars or Batman fans than, say, Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants devotees. It is, of course, a true shame that so many impressionable girls are obsessed with such socially reprehensible material, but so it goes.
Reagen Sulewski: It's never just been the teen audience for this, though - you don't even get Twilight numbers with just teen girls. I think a lot of the credit has to go to timing - the book series peaked in between the first movie and this one and fans of the first film were able to say that they were going to get what they wanted out of the translation to the screen. Which is odd... since absolutely nothing happens in that first film.
Tim Briody: I guess in addition to the teen audience then, the series is drawing out the cougar demographic that hasn't had much besides Sex and the City in recent years.
Jim Van Nest: Like it or not, the Twilight series has now reached the level where every film will be an "event". And Reagen's right...this is not just 10-18 year old girls. This is pretty much all women at this point and apparently their need is so strong they're dragging their guys to it as well. It really is astonishing.
Kim Hollis: Reagen and Tim, I've thought about the demographic question a lot over the last couple of days. I'm not kidding when I say that every woman I know was talking about going to see this film, whether it was with a teenage daughter or just with a group of friends. It was the review in Slate that made me realize what the appeal is for such a wide-range of females (and given that demographic data from ERC tells us the audience was 80% female, with a 50/50 split of teens and adults, I think this is where the discussion lies). The reviewer commented that she knows New Moon is not a good movie, but she loves it anyway, because it so perfectly captures the angst she remembers feeling as a teenager herself. I think this is the key. Even if we know better now, with 20 years of hindsight on our side, we know that as teenagers we were every bit as silly and dramatic as Ms. Bella. It's relatable.
Jason Lee: I'll admit that the Twilight franchise has become a dominating part of the zeitgeist over the past 12 months, but still, the mind boggles at the number of moviegoers (I'll go out on a limb here and say "women) that plunked down their cold, hard cash on this movie. To reach $140 mil is astounding and normally, I'd argue that you have to be somewhat of a four-quadrant movie to achieve that crazy total...but the marketing and trailers and pre-release movie stills were all clearly aimed at women. It's almost like a "Passion of the Christ" scenario -- who knew so many women could come out for a single movie in one weekend?
Max Braden: I predicted an opening less than $90 million, so take whatever I say with a grain of salt... As far as quality goes, that's always in the eye of the beholder, of course. I never understood what was so great about Titanic, but both movies clearly tap into that doomed/forbidden/angst-y romance that has made Tristan & Isolde and Romeo & Juliet essential reading for hundreds of years. As far as numbers go, in hindsight New Moon and Twilight aren't so different from The Dark Knight and Batman Begins. On the surface both series appear to be highly biased to polar opposite demographics that would suggest that huge box office would be unattainable. But then both sequels doubled the opening weekends of their predecessors and set records in the process. (I still have trouble believing as many men saw New Moon as the number of women who saw The Dark Knight.)
Brett Beach: I undersold the tally. I undersold the tally (see last week's MMBQ). What I find interesting about this figure is that, unlike a lot of the major releases in the last two years, it comes without the benefit of 3D or IMAX tickets. That's 100% all natural high ticket prices alone, folks! All kidding aside, I am not sure if I can find a reason for this that truly sums it all up for me. I do consider the fever pitch around New Moon's release akin to the hysteria surrounding Sinatra as a teen idol in the 1940s or The Beatles in the 1960s. It's fueled (largely) by the burgeoning sexuality of adolescent girls which it seems has always been a powerful commercial force when channeled narrowly. I knew that New Moon was going to be huge when I began to understand that there was not one but two male leads for the ladies to choose from. It's like two Tiger Beat posters for the price of one. But THIS huge? No, I didn't think it was possible, not driven largely by women. The stats I have heard thrown about are 4/5 female and over half under 21 for the opening weekend audience. On a side note: from the standpoint of art or commerce, I have no idea why these books have struck the chord they have. I read Twilight and thought it was about 20% worthwhile, got about ten pages into New Moon and threw in the towel. Having glanced at the plots for the last two books, my two reactions are a) Really? Really? and B) How the hell are they going to keep these at a PG-13 level?
Shalimar Sahota: Never seen Twilight. New Moon isn't a priority for me. Wouldn't have even predicted this to make over $100 over the weekend. And of all films, I wouldn't have expected this to break the record for midnight screenings (Are parents letting their teens go to midnight screenings by themselves!? Would these be same parents giving them contraceptives for birthdays and Christmas?). People I work with are currently going through the books, and the Twilight DVDs have been big sellers, especially in the sales. With extra people catching up, having missed it last year, it might explain how this doubled the first films weekend total.
Also going by reviews, Chris Weitz has destroyed another adaptation, resulting in a film worse than The Golden Compass (New Moon is currently 29% fresh at Rotten Tomatoes compared to 42% for The Golden Compass). Yet it's New Moon that has already taken in more than The Golden Compass accomplished during its entire run! Proof that you need to lay a rotten egg to strike gold?
Michael Lynderey: This franchise has reached the peak point of its popularity. Unlike, say, 2012, New Moon isn't a movie that goes after a broad cross-section of audiences - rather, it's got one particular (and massive) demographic that it targets and appeals to, with a vengeance; and now, we've seen the power of that demographic to reshape the box office in ways that are inexplicable to me. That opening day number - $72 million - was humbling. Just how much money can a movie make in 24 hours? In fact, I've been suspecting something for a while now - that a film will indeed make $100 million in one day within the next several years - and now I am sure it is going to happen (on December 21, 2012, perhaps? wink, wink). What's the cap off point on these openings, I wonder? Surely, there must be one.
David Mumpower: A point that I think needs to be made here is that only $70 million of this is coming from the under-21 crowd. The splits on New Moon's opening weekend are such that half of the people attending are over 21. Those are the ones that haven't been properly evaluated. The reality is that the difference between New Moon and Twilight is that more adult women went to see it than attended Sex and the City on opening weekend. The Twilight phenomenon has leveled up in terms of pop culture to a point that its target audience is no longer just teen girls. Now, it's a full 51% of the population, and when they sampled Twilight, they liked it. Yes, a Twilight viewing was positive reinforcement for most female consumers. There is your scary thought for the day.
Here's a scary thing to ponder...
Kim Hollis: Do you expect this to be the high point of the Twilight franchise, or do you think that Eclipse and Breaking Dawn will have similar or better performances?
Josh Spiegel: I mentioned this theory to my wife yesterday - I wonder if, at some point between now and June 2010, when Eclipse is slated to come out, there will be the seemingly inevitable Twilight backlash. That may contribute to New Moon being the high point of the series; something else to watch for, obviously, is how well the film does in the next few weeks. By coming out at this time of year, New Moon should make somewhere close to $300 million, if not much more so; however, I'm curious to see if this film has the same weekend-to-overall box office gross as its predecessor did. The word-of-mouth may not be as amazing as the numbers say; my hope is that New Moon is the high point, but you never know.
Sean Collier: It's so over-saturated; it has to fall off soon. I hope? Please? Dear God, please, if there's any mercy left in the world?
Reagen Sulewski: Having read the plot summaries for the next two books, they get a little weird (which to me is saying something). I think this is going to increasingly restrict the audience to the true believers, so we'll probably see a small uptick for Eclipse (situationally dependent, of course) with Breaking Dawn trending down as the norms start realizing they're hanging with the freaks.
Jim Van Nest: I think this one may be the high point, but it has nothing to do with backlash or weird plotlines. Someone said it in part 1 that the height of the books seemed to be between the two films. Unless Meyer churns out a fifth book, or even a related book, I think the interest will start to back off as it is at a feverish pitch that can't possibly be sustained. However, if another book were to come out, it would send this series into the stratosphere...if it isn't there already.
Jason Lee: There's no way in heck the next two movies even comes close to opening as big as New Moon. For one thing, the quality of these movies have never been that high (unlike the Harry Potter franchise, in which I expect the final movie to eclipse the opening weekend, or opening five-day if they start on a Wed, of every other Harry Potter film). Secondly, it will be impossible for Summit Entertainment to maintain the fan base's rabid momentum towards the next film. I agree with Sean here, over-saturation will do them in. Unless Taylor Lautner develops like a 12-pack or something.
Max Braden: After two huge surprises, I'm not going to underestimate the third time potential. The Lord of the Rings trio increased its opening weekend with each movie, and though Harry Potter's opening weekend peaked with its fourth entry, the series doesn't seem to be suffering any saturation fatigue. Once you have two solid entries, audiences are naturally going to want to see the third. You could point to the Pirates of the Caribbean series as evidence of weakened performance after a disappointing second entry, but until I hear Twilight Saga fans complaining that New Moon was too long and boring, I'll expect the third to do just as well. I wouldn't want to speculate on the fourth until we see the third though, so I guess I'm not 100% confident on Eclipse being a blockbuster.
Tom Macy: I think this thing is burning a little too brightly right now to keep growing. How high off the cliff New Moon falls next weekend will say a lot. Is everyone on the planet seeing this? Or has everyone that was planning to seen it already? I too am leaning towards the Dead-Man's-Chest-spike (that's quite a phrase) comparison. But I don't want to undercut Twilight anymore. I think it draws its power from lowball bow office estimates - to which I'm ashamed to say I've contributed. So I predict Eclipse will be the first film to open to $200 million and Breaking Dawn to make a billion domestically in its first week. Try beating expectations now.
Brett Beach: I think that past franchises such as The Matrix and Pirates of the Caribbean are good indicators and that this will stand as the high-water mark in earnings for the four (or potentially five, if what I hear about Breaking Dawn being two movies turns out to be true) films in the series. The fans were satisfied last time and a lot of new fans came with them but eventually the saturation point is reached and the films won't continue to grow - in domestic dollars at least. Worldwide, I think the figures will keep on the uptick through the end. The Harry Potter films have been remarkably consistent in their grosses which in and of itself is noteworthy but just not as exciting and sexy to talk about.
Kim Hollis: I'm thinking (God help me) that it still has room to expand even more. Cinemascores for New Moon (purely based on audience rating) are A-. My friends who have seen the film are all talking about going back again. I find it hard to imagine that their interest is going to decline in six months, though admittedly, fads that are so heavily teen-oriented can be difficult to figure.
Michael Lynderey: New Moon's the high point, I think. It's behaving like a sequel to a well-received, leggy movie (think of the follow-ups to Pirates of the Caribbean and Shrek) - and in fact, it is exactly that. The third entries in such cases usually don't improve on the performance of the second films, and a critical mass point like this one is going to be very hard to maintain until June (when Eclipse opens), or to replicate.
David Mumpower: Michael has touched upon the aspect of this that I feel is most applicable. Dead Man's Chest was the high water mark for the Pirates of the Caribbean series in terms of both opening weekend and final domestic box office take. In fact, it is a full $100 million ahead of the other titles in the franchise. Sometimes, anticipation for a movie spreads like an out of control forest fire. It's a mercurial process that cannot be manipulated through something as artificial as a marketing campaign. It has to happen organically and that is what we have witnessed with New Moon. Moving forward, Summitt Entertainment has made yet another brilliant decision by releasing Eclipse next summer, thereby rushing the product before the backlash several of you expect fully occurs.
Pete Kilmer: I think if they get the third one cranked out in time it has potential to really break things wide open as far as box office goes. If, however it doesn't come out until 2011, then it will still be huge, but not nearly as big as it could have been. They need to get it cranked out as soon as possible.