Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
November 2, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Michael Jackson's This Is It, the posthumous concert film, earned $23.2 million over three days and $34.4 million over five days domestically and a grand total of $101 million worldwide. Obviously, this was a miss as far as tracking. But how did the film perform compared to your expectations?
Josh Spiegel: Tracking can be notoriously unreliable, and I'd bet that some of the hype about Michael Jackson's This Is It (as I've said elsewhere, I really can't stand this title, but so it goes in Hollywood) was fueled by Sony's wild expectations. Did they pay too much for the footage? Apparently so, as some people prefer to mourn outside a movie theater, or just weren't interested. Still, $100 million worldwide for the first weekend is pretty awesome. Also, This Is It is just about halfway to tying the Hannah Montana concert film as the number-one of the genre. This is maybe disappointing for Sony, but about where I figured things would land (though I did wonder if the film would flop, a la Snakes on a Plane's opening weekend, all hype and no audience).
David Mumpower: We have mentioned the problems with tracking on several occasions. This particular title has highlighted the most glaring issue, one that no one has figured out how to overcome. It is borderline impossible to distinguish between having awareness of a film and having enough motivation to see the film. After the concert tribute mentioned the upcoming movie, a billion people were made aware of it. Some folks mistook that for a direct correlation in sales, assuming awareness would lead to sales conversions. In reality, only the die-hards cared enough to see the concert movie, too.
Pete Kilmer: The marketers of this movie were watching too much of Entertainment Weekly and Access Hollywood and bought into the hype themselves. It made a bit more than I actually expected.
Max Braden: This one was a hard one to gauge, but I think I was expecting less than $20 million.
Jim Van Nest: It exceeded what I expected from it. I'm a huge Mike fan and I'll skip it and get the DVD. I saw no reason to rush out to the theater to see something that I can have in my own home in a couple weeks. And oh by the way, there will be way more stuff on the DVD than in theaters. For the price of a movie ticket these days, I'll be a little more selective. I'm just surprised how many people aren't as selective.
Reagen Sulewski: Obviously this goes to show that if you're looking to cynically cash in on the death of an artist, you need to strike while the iron is hot. I kind of expected the heat from the renewed album sales to carry over into this, but obviously people came to their senses quickly. Or maybe there was a feeling of, when people were asked if they wanted to see this, said yes, but didn't want to be seen actually purchasing a ticket.
Sean Collier: Reagan nailed it. We've all moved on from the renewed MJ love of the summer, and I think the feeling that This Is It couldn't possibly live up to the hype was palpable leading up to the release. I expected a bit more, and Sony expected much more - the spin that's been going on to try to make this into a big win is hilarious.
Michael Lynderey: I was anticipating a Friday the 13th-esque first day of something like $25 million, followed by a hilariously absurd drop. But that massive first day never came. Tracking did give me an early Halloween scare on this film, and it looks like the most surprising part about its performance is how utterly ordinary it is. No runaway blockbuster, no colossal disappointment, no ginormous day-to-day drop. Basically, it's very un-Jackson-like
George Rose: This did far worse than my expectations, but was more than I had hoped for. If he had died and released a concert movie 15 years ago, I would have been all about it. As it stands, in 2009, I have no interest in Michael, living or dead. It takes a lot of effort but I can overlook the "false" child molestation charges. What I cannot ignore is how willing he was to destroy his physical appearance and his inability to parent children. I know it sounds harsh, but I take a strong South Park-stance on the Michael Jackson subject matter. I see him as delusional, not praise worthy. If anything, this lackluster bow actually makes me like Miley Cyrus more. Congrats to her for being everything Michael wished he could be. In the words of South Park's Miss Michael Jackson: "I'm just a little girl (hee hee), a dainty little thing, and I know you all want to be, a little white girl like me (sha-mona, hee hee hee)."
Brett Beach: I have to check the "Very Underwhelming" box in response to this question, based on my impressions from the headlines recently. While this really was an unknown in terms of how well it would perform, all the talk about the thousands of sold-out shows and how well advance tickets were being snatched up had me convinced a five-day opening in the $50-million-$60 million range was to be expected. Then there was the "anonymous" studio executive who early last week was predicting $260 million final domestic and $600 million global. (It may well reach that from its worldwide total but the lion's share will be coming from abroad, not here.) That was my inkling that the hype had gone into Spinal Tap land ("11") and things needed to be dialed back. $30 million-plus in five days is a lot more than I thought possible when I first became aware of the project. For a deceased singer who had become a social recluse in the last decade and still suffered fallout from allegations and trials, it's an impressive pull. We are just getting settled in for the posthumous earning potential of MJ.
It's Miley's world. We're all just living in it (apparently).
Kim Hollis: Given the box office disappointments of The Jonas Brothers concert film and now This Is It, is it fair to say concert movies are getting inflated expectations due to the aftermath of Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus?
David Mumpower: The box office failures of the Jonas Brothers concert and This Is It (relative to expectations) only further demonstrate what a remarkable performance The Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour managed. It's proven inimitable.
Josh Spiegel: I'm not sure the comparison fits for This Is It, considering that the movie wouldn't have been made (or, at the very least, it wouldn't have been released this year, let alone this weekend) if Michael Jackson was still alive. The Jonas Brothers concert film flopped for a few reasons; the concert film is not usually a money-maker, so when Hannah Montana, with its allegedly limited engagement, 3-D prices, and general malaise in terms of other competition, made a big splash, some people figured all concert movies would do likewise. Again, though This Is It is going to be seen as disappointing, I'm still under the belief that if you make a movie that makes $100 million in five days, you shouldn't be drowned in your sorrows for too long. Concert movies aren't ever going to be massively successful, though, as only a few artists would inspire millions to come to the multiplex.
Pete Kilmer: At least until the next Disney child/group is pushed out of the Disney machine factory. The days of the concert film making huge bank are few and far between. I think This is It was certainly worth putting out there and seeing what kind of money it would make. They already had the footage so they would have been foolish NOT to make the movie.
Jim Van Nest: I've never really understood the concert film. If I want to see someone that bad, I'll find my way to the concert.
David Mumpower: We went to see Shine a Light, the Martin Scorsese-directed concert film by the Rolling Stones. I enjoyed it and the IMAX sound gave it a true concert feel in some ways. Even so, I found the entire experience largely artificial. It simply could not replicate the experience of attending a live concert. I think what we've seen in the aftermath of Best of Both Worlds is that most people have formed the same conclusion. It's hard to imagine a concert film that could have more going for it than This Is It, but that meant little to its box office.
Reagen Sulewski: I hinted at this in my last response, but I'll elaborate a bit here. So much to do with these films is about timing. You need to catch lightning in a bottle and if you're even a week too late, your audience has moved on. Basically make them quick and fast so that you at least ensure yourself a baseline profit, and if you stumble on a hit, so much the better.
Sean Collier: Concert films simply aren't for the general public, and they won't be. Hannah Montana was an anomaly; keep in mind that all every little girl in America wanted out of life at the time was to see Miley live, and the film was as close as many could get. That's not a kind of fan devotion that translates to adults - or even slightly older children, as the Jonas film demonstrated. Concert films are permanently a niche for particularly dedicated fans of an artist, and even most of that group didn't come out this weekend.
George Rose: I think concert movies have the potential to reach Hannah/Miley heights, we just haven't been offered one nearly as exciting as it since then. The Jonas Brothers? U2? Michael Jackson? Three disappointing male driven concert events follow a successful young woman and people are asking why they all failed. Apparently what sells 3D concert movie tickets is a celebrity with an image that take advantages of the extra dimension. Young girls aspire to be busty indecent women and young men are attracted to busty indecent women. I'll concede and admit expectations are being inflated when Britney or Madonna's 3D concert movie debuts below $25 million. Until then, I say the expectations aren't inflated, just the male ego. The 3D concert movie is one market where women clearly succeed, or at least have the better track record.
Michael Lynderey: There may be inflated expectations, but the box office seems to generally reflect the popularity of the musician in question, and it's the size of the fan base that sometimes surprises. For better or worse, Cyrus was at her absolute peak last year. The Jonas Brothers are frankly more B-list. And while MJ has a dedicated core of fans, the general public may well be suffering from Jackson fatigue. Besides, his movie will probably end up with a total not much lower than that of the Cyrus picture.