Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
October 26, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Paranormal Activity expanded into wider release and shocked the world by winning the weekend with $21.1 million. Where does this rank in the annals of box office upsets?
Josh Spiegel: I think if you'd said two months ago that this would have happened, that Paranormal Activity, a movie starring two complete unknowns and shot on the cheap, would top Saw VI, I would have laughed my head off. However, during the last month or so, Paranormal Activity has become the biggest box office story since The Hangover. I'm still a bit surprised that Saw VI, being the known property, wasn't able to win (though I am glad it didn't) the top spot, but Paramount Pictures has been doing a stellar marketing job with this movie, rolling it out wider and wider at the right time. Congratulations are in order for everyone involved.
Michael Lynderey: It's a good result, but the credit for the upset here should really go to Saw. Paranormal Activity just did the expected and held on to that $20 million sum it took in last weekend - expected because the screen count more than doubled this time around, so that negated the 50% drop that would have come Paranormal's way had it already been a wide release (now that drop will hit next weekend). If Saw VI hadn't gone to such great lengths to disappoint, it would have easily beaten Paranormal's take.
Tim Briody: As I mentioned in the Friday Box Office Analysis column, you can now place this alongside The Blair Witch Project (which many had already done) and My Big Fat Greek Wedding in the pantheon of Little Films That Could. For it to actually be helped instead of hurt by the era of insta-feedback via Twitter and Facebook is a solid accomplishment. I think it's still got one more solid weekend of earnings too since Halloween is Saturday.
Sean Collier: Biggest story since The Hangover, Josh? I'd say biggest story of the year and more. If for no other reason, this is more or less a guide to successfully marketing a small film in the constant-feedback era, and makes the (all too rare) case for actually making films, you know, good. While Paranormal Activity's march to the top was fairly steady, I think we all subtly doubted that it would make it to #1, especially against Halloween's official franchise. This is a huge upset, and the feel-good box office story of the year.
George Rose: Frankly, I'm upset it didn't make more. People keep comparing this to Blair Witch Project but it's not. Blair Witch made more in both its first and second weekends of wide release, and that was with lower ticket prices from ten years ago. While I still expect a gross less than $100 million, nowhere near Blair Witch's $140 million, its $21 million second weekend is a success for the cheap production and made me realize two things about the current state of horror - 1) the Saw series should no longer be considered a threat to other horror wanting to open against it during Halloween, and 2) Michael Bay should be paid a lot less. Let's see him remake Nightmare on Elm Street for $11,000.
Brett Beach: I think it stands as an upset in at least one regard. It may be the first #1 in modern memory where you could survey 100 people who have seen it and at least 95 could not tell you who directed, wrote or stars in it (although based on the lack of credits - a great idea by the way - maybe some are still under the impression it isn't really a fiction film?). Not sure where to rank it among "OMG, I can't believe film x beat out film y to be #1, but in terms of surprise, it takes me back to 1994 when some film called Ace Ventura: Pet Detective opened at #1 and I knew without a doubt that, at age 18, I no longer had a clue as to what was commercial gold and what wasn't.
Jim Van Nest: How big of an upset this is depends on how far you go back. If you go back one week, I don't think it's an upset at all. After last week's showing the writing was on the wall...all Paranormal Activity needed was some more screens. Go back three weeks ago and this is a huge upset that no one would have seen coming. Go back six months and this could be one of the larger box office upsets of all time. Blair Witch caught lightning in a bottle. That's supposed to be a once in a lifetime deal. Turns out, PA may out-Blair Witch the Blair Witch.
Reagen Sulewski: It's interesting to look back at what exactly Blair Witch was going up against in the weeks it went wide: The first big roll out had it up against Runaway Bride - which is almost beat, and the next week had it against The Sixth Sense, which was on the verge of becoming its own phenomena but didn't look so at the time (and think about how weird that is - to have two "once a decade" horror film performances come out within the span of two weeks). I'd say that compares rather favorably to the films that Paranormal's gone up against, and considering that it actually effectively took down a horror champ says something very strong in its favor.
Max Braden: You can also go way back to 1978 for Halloween, which was made on the cheap but earned $47 million on far fewer screens. I keep making "one the other hand" comparisons with Blair Witch. Blair Witch's internet marketing phenomenon benefited from that kind of marketing still in its youth, but the Internet hadn't spread as much as it has for Paranormal, which has Twitter to work with but could have been met with a seen-it-before response. I want to say I don't know anyone in person who's seen Paranormal, and I've seen a lot of disappointing reviews of it (meaning the press about the movie is more about its box office than the movie itself), but on the other hand Blair Witch faced a lot of criticism from audiences at the time as well.
Pete Kilmer: Just goes to show that there will still be some surprises at the box office. And just think, they almost made a big budget remake of this with name actors. Paramount played the marketing on this movie just right and someone over there deserves a huge bonus.
Tom Macy: This demographic just ain't big enough for the both of us" said the [insert underdog metaphor] Paranormal Activity as it squared off against the [insert formidable opponent metaphor] Saw VI. It's hard to put the outcome in perspective. I can't say I'm shocked. The buzz has been deafening even to my no horror at all costs ears. In terms of ranking it against other upsets I honestly can't find a comparison. I can recall big surprises, such as 300 opening much bigger than anticipated. But upsets? King Kong losing out to Chronicles of Narnia? But those films were much more evenly matched going in. The Blair Witch Project wasn't even #1 when it went wide. That twig piling menace wasn't bad enough to stop Julia Roberts and Richard Gere in Runaway Bride. More and more I'm thinking this may be unprecedented. An $11,000 film not just beating but clobbering an entry of a major franchise, of the same genre no less, in its opening weekend? Can anyone else think of something comparable?
David Mumpower: I can think of an $11,000 film that earned this much, but it wasn't a studio release. It co-starred Pamela Anderson and Tommy Lee.
This could only be better if real porn had beaten the torture porn
Kim Hollis: Saw VI suffered through a franchise low $14.1 million opening. Did Lionsgate do anything wrong here or is this just a case of the new big thing making an older product look stale?
Josh Spiegel: Seeing as Lionsgate marketed Saw VI in the same way that they've been marketing in the other films in the franchise, it's all about the latter option. The people who have been going to see the films in the Saw franchise have been doing so over the last couple of years because, come Halloween, that's the only scary movie at the multiplex. Then comes along Paranormal Activity, not only another scary movie, but one that's completely different in style and tone from the Saw movies. I hope people are finally getting tired of the franchise, but if it wasn't for Paranormal Activity, we probably would be looking at another number-one win for Saw.
Tim Briody: Yes, the concept is a little tired, but a month ago we all still had this penciled in for a $30 million opening, as every film from Saw II to Saw V has done. Yes, the final grosses have seen diminishing returns but the openings stayed the same. Saw VI was unfortunately kneecapped by a once or twice a decade phenomenon.
Sean Collier: Nothing new, nothing different, Saw just got blindsided by Paranormal Activity. Considering no one could have possibly seen this coming, they can't be blamed. Future unopposed Saw films will probably come closer to the $30 million range the franchise is accustomed to, but the floodgates may open up now that studios see that Saw can be beaten at Halloween. Nevertheless, even this one made its budget back in one weekend, so there's no reason for them to be discouraged.
Jim Van Nest: I agree with the group on this one: wrong place, wrong time for Saw VI. I'd like to take this time to point out that there's probably a lot of franchises that would kill for a $14 million weekend from the sixth installment.
Reagen Sulewski: The Saw producers didn't do anything "wrong" in that they didn't do anything differently from the last time - but a lot of industries make totally defensible decisions that end up in disaster because the marketplace changes on them. This franchise has been vulnerable for awhile - it's just taken the right challenger to make it happen.
Max Braden: Not to take anything away from Paranormal Activity, but at this point in a re-hash franchise you also have to face the fact that the audience is going to be more easily distracted by something shiny and new.
Tom Macy: There's no way Lionsgate could have seen Paranormal Activity coming. I'm tempted to say - oh, wait, I'm saying it - that they had to realize that at some point the clock would strike midnight and the well overflowing with profits that was the Saw movie formula would dry up (one sentence, two metaphors. Bam!). If they really wanted to keep the franchise going at this pace, and I'm sure they did, eventually some sort of reboot would have to take place to keep people interested. But honestly, if ain't broke... Saw VI will still give them a big return on their investment. And I think were it not for Paranormal Activity, which no one saw coming, they'd be right around where they usually are with an opening upwards of $25 million. Paranormal Activity is a once in a blue moon thing. It was a knock down for Saw, but it'll be back and more powerful than you could possible imagine. Okay, I don't know if that's true, just needed to get a Star Wars reference in there.
Michael Lynderey: I may sound unduly harsh here, but this is an utter disaster. Yes, every entry since part II has depreciated from its predecessor's total gross, but never to this degree - Saw VI's weekend take was only about $500,000 higher than the opening day of Saw V, and there's a good chance it won't finish with more than $30 million. Paranormal Activity should no doubt take some credit for these developments, but I think there's something else to it; we may be in another re-aligning period for the horror genre, with the surprise successes of Zombieland and Paranormal Activity, but the partial or complete failures of Sorority Row, Jennifer's Body, Pandorum, The Stepfather, and now the ringleader of horror in the 2000s, the Saw series - all in a span of two months. There's clearly some housecleaning going on here.
Brett Beach: Although it looks like a case of Paranormal Activity sapping almost exactly half of Saw VI's potential audience, I find it hard to believe it is as simple as that. They may both be "horror films" but apart from that, they have nothing in common in terms of gore quotient, scare quotient or style. I gather that the last installment of Saw really disappointed a lot of people who went to see it, even non-discriminating fans of horror films. The attempts to tie together every plot point in this series are somewhat admirable in a genre that often thrives on discontinuity and ignoring previous installments but at some point, it approaches ludicrosity. Although I haven't seen any but the first film, I did continue my annual tradition of going on to Wikipedia opening day and reading the first plot summary of the film posted. I think I should have a scorecard to keep track of it all!
George Rose: I don't think Paranormal Activity made Saw VI look stale. Lionsgate did. I loved the first three Saw films. By the fourth it had become too distant from the original for me to continue investing hope. I didn't even bother to see the fifth one but by that point it had scared all competitors away, allowing the franchise to still open as high as the others. However, Saw V went on to earn less than Saw IV, which itself earned less than Saw III. This $14 million says exactly what the declining profits have been saying: the films just get worse and worse. The Saw VI trailer shows nothing regarding plot. With Jigsaw dead, it looks just like Hostel, a movie about people in a room dying in twisted ways. And let's be honest, Hostel VI wouldn't stand a chance against even Paranormal Activity 2. All Paranormal Activity did was call Saw's bluff and open wide up against it. Still, as long as the Saw movies make more than they cost on opening weekend alone we're going to see them for many Halloweens to come.
Jason Lee: I personally think that the films have become too insular in recent years. When you're making references to Saw III, your audience is going to have a hard time following the twists and turns. Beyond that, I found it strange that the Saw producers would take this opportunity to push such a strong health care message in the film. Talk about strange...
Eric Hughes: No, what's strange is the Saw people actually believing that audiences go out to see these movies for its twisted, ongoing storyline. Nearly every interview with the writers included the unnecessary detail that they have everything planned out through like Saw VIII - and that the ending to the current release would hint at what's to come, and yada yada. Saying audiences have an avid interest in Saw's storyline is like saying people who tuned in for Halloween II did so strictly to see where Michael Myers really ended up. What happened this time around was Saw faced some actual competition - and in my eyes, better competition - and got burned for it.
Pete Kilmer: I think the Saw producers went one movie too far in the franchise. They killed off the main character a couple of movies ago and he's still causing problems? Fans of the horror genre forgive a lot when it comes to plot-logic....but they will notice when a franchise has run out of steam and is just being milked.