Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
October 20, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Paranormal Activity platformed into national release in 760 locations. It earned $19.6 million, with a per location average of $25,711. Is this more, less or about what you were expecting? Do you think this $15,000 production will earn $100 million domestically?
Brett Beach: I have been only aware of this film for five weeks and already I feel burned out on it. I took the liberty of checking out the plot on Wikipedia (not something I normally do, by the by) and can't say that I feel inspired to see it. Comparisons to The Blair Witch Project aside, the fact that (brilliant) guerilla marketing tactics such as these two films have employed seem to pay off only once every ten years says more for the creators of said buzz (and maybe an end of decade collective anxiety?) than the films themselves. Critical consensus seems near-unanimous positive while I get the impression that audiences are becoming polarized among love it/hate it. $20 million-ish is about what I thought it would this weekend and I think it has a few more weekends left in it for the still curious to get on board. I do believe it will stop about $10 million or so shy of the triple digit mark
Josh Spiegel: Last question first. I think that, depending on how the continued rollout goes from Paramount, this could very easily earn $100 million in the States. As of right now, Paramount hasn't made a wrong step here, and if they keep up the cool demeanor, Paranormal Activity will meet the Blair Witch comparison. I'm a little surprised at how much it made this weekend, not because of the Internet word-of-mouth, but because of the competition from other movies that made a solid bit of change. Still, this movie stands next to Taken and The Hangover as one of the big sleeper successes of 2009.
Tim Briody: A lot depends on how much Saw VI affects it next weekend. If its thunder is stolen by the known quantity (sorry, The Stepfather), then it's got no chance. If it continues to build on this weekend, which for the record, is still outstanding, look out.
Jim Van Nest: If they can add more screens this week, I see no reason for the momentum to stop here. Word about this film is starting to spread crazy wide and if they can find the screens to double its total this week, it will beat Saw VI straight up.
Reagen Sulewski: Hell, I'm starting to wonder if it can earn $100 million in a weekend in the US (it will, of course, still lose money by studio accounting's terms). I think the more remarkable thing is how well this has built without any particular fire to the hype. When Blair Witch hit, it was everywhere and suffered a backlash. This one's avoided mass-media almost entirely, and for that reason it should probably be able to avoid the "it wasn't that good" complainers for a little bit longer.
Tom Macy: I am extremely impressed at how well this release has been executed and, in turn, performed. I don't think it will reach the $100 million plateau, though. This weekend was the high point. I expect further expansion but I'd be shocked if it had another weekend over $20 million. The horror genre is one of the most reliable out there, but to a point. Eventually the word-of-mouth will run up against those confines. For example, I'm more curious to see this film than I've been about any horror movie in awhile, and I still probably won't see it. Okay, tell you what, if it crosses $100 million I'll make it $100,000,012 and I'll keep my foot in my mouth the whole time.
Jason Lee: For what it's worth, I'm already hearing the "it wasn't THAT scary" buzz. That said, I agree with Reagan regarding the studio's decision to engage the mass media in a limited way in marketing this film. I feel like a lot of people are heading to theaters to see Paranormal Activity because it still sort of feels like an "teen insider" film - people are going to see it BECAUSE their friends are talking about it but it's not all over TV. That type of status has a lot of cachet to it, I think.
George Rose: Two weeks ago this would have been $19 million more than I expected. Since then, I've heard many people discussing this movie. Most of those that saw it have been raving about it. Those that haven't seen it want to. However, I fear with the onset of over-hyping and the short amount of time left before Halloween, it will struggle to go beyond $100 million. Regardless, anything more than $15,000 makes it a smash hit so it's already en route to becoming a pop-culture phenomenon.
Max Braden: Despite its record limited opening, and this huge weekend, I'm still wary of thinking Paranormal Activity is going to have staying power at the box office. My guess is that if they tried to put the movie in 2,000+ theaters the site average would drop dramatically after the most enthusiastic audiences have seen it. I'm just thinking of Open Water here, which was touted as a super-scary super-low-budget kin to Blair Witch, and just didn't capture the same fire. I'd predict somewhere around $80-90 million.
Sean Collier: I think that $100 million is unreachable, only because the word-of-mouth is pretty much the sole driving force here, along with the film's quality. There's only so many people who are going to hear about Paranormal Activity and go to see it - and there are some who are going to be unwilling to see something that has scared the hell out of several of their friends. It's gotta be peaking - I hope it isn't, but I fear it is.
Lonely Boy thanks all his fans
Kim Hollis: The Stepfather, the Sony release featuring one of the stars of Gossip Girl, opened to $11.6 million. Should the studio be pleased with this result?
Josh Spiegel: I think Sony miscalculated when to release The Stepfather. With competition from Paranormal Activity (granted, a movie that a rival studio may not have assumed would do well) and Law Abiding Citizen, there was just a bit of overcrowding at the theaters this weekend. Moreover, Where The Wild Things Are attracted the teenage and college crowd, so that film's performance also drew away people from this one. Also, all those crossover fans from Lost hoping to see some random cameo from the original Stepfather, Terry O'Quinn, didn't show up in droves...or not.
Jim Van Nest: Considering I'm pretty up to date on my movie releases and trailers and all of that stuff and considering that if I didn't have a gig at BOP I would never have heard of this remake...they should take their $12 million and have a party. Other than what I've seen on this site, I know nothing of this movie and saw nothing about this movie on TV. With the hype surrounding Paranormal Activity, I had actually forgotten that The Stepfather opened this week until I read the forecast.
Reagen Sulewski: Seriously, they must have been sending word out about this one by smoke signal or something as there was just no heat for it. Spillover from Paranormal Activity makes the most sense to me. Horror fans seem most likely to go for their second choice rather than just turn around.
Tom Macy: I'd be surprised if the studio even bothered to check the numbers. Like I said, the horror genre is as reliable as there is. And The Stepfather this appears to be - after watching the trailer for the first time 30 seconds ago - as cookie cutter as they come. Was there ever any doubt about how this would do? $11.6 million opening against a budget of around $20 million? They'll make the budget back easily in the domestic run and reap the rewards of Best Buy bargain bins for years to come. This whole production was probably set up just to pay Tobey Maguire and Kirsten Dunst's Spider-Man 4 salaries anyway. Whether or not Sony is pleased will depend on how that film opens.
Brett Beach: Yes. The studio should be very happy, even if it was from teens buying tickets to this and then venturing off to Law Abiding Citizen or Paranormal Activity. Three films opened wide, a fourth went wide and all of them could be aptly described as performing at or above expectations. With a Rotten Tomatoes reading (12%) only marginally better than director Nelson McCormick's previous PG-13 rendering of a 1980s slasher film, Prom Night (9%), Screen Gems demonstrated that you just can't tell what the teen market for horror (re: girls making their dates take them to) will accept or go "meh" to. Or perhaps they all thought that Penn Badgley's threesome scene was on the big screen? Alas, my love for Sela Ward requires that at some point I will have to see this.
Jason Lee: This always seemed a film destined for a Sorority Row type of performance to me: tepid remake of a horror film that was only passably good to begin with.
George Rose: It went up against Paranormal Activity on the weekend before Saw VI and still broke $10 million. Considering the cast is made up of C-list TV stars, much like the abysmal Sorority Row, I'd say this is a giant win for everyone working at the CW network. I'm sure Stepfather 2 has already been greenlit with the cast of 90210.
Max Braden: I saw plenty of ads for it, but nothing about the trailer really stood out. I recognized Dylan Walsh more immediately than Amber Heard, and even I don't watch Nip/Tuck anymore. And I don't think putting the movie against any other competition was going to help it any more. So it wasn't going to earn the kind of money that thrillers like Disturbia and Obsessed made, but to show in the double digits is pretty fortunate.
Sean Collier: Anything this generic looking should be glad to make a dime.