Friday Box Office Analysis
By Tim Briody
April 25, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com
[tm:4495_]Obsessed[/tm]
The not-screened-for-critics Obsessed is a bit of a shocker this weekend, pulling in $11 million on Friday. For a relative throwaway weekend, this is a pretty remarkable figure. For Beyonce, it will be her second highest opening weekend ever after Austin Powers in Goldmember and perhaps finally establishes her as a bit of a draw. Even if it comes in with a below average weekend multiplier, Obsessed will still have a great weekend. I'm going with a 2.8 multiplier and a $30.8 million weekend.
[tm:4758_]Fighting[/tm]
A slight surprise is in second place as well, as Fighting, which oddly enough features...fighting, earned $4.4 million. The title was brief and to the point so that likely drew some of the testosterone-laden crowd, as well as females who think Channing Tatum is pretty. That strategy might not hold up over the long term, but it's good for one weekend at least. Give Fighting $11.9 million for the weekend.
[tm:4204_]The Soloist[/tm]
The long-delayed and terribly titled The Soloist earned $3.2 million on Friday. No wonder something called "Fighting" beat out The Soloist. Which one would you rather see? A weekend of $9.2 million is likely the best the [bp:2633_]Jamie Foxx[/bp] and Robert Downey Jr. film could hope for.
Earth
The documentary Earth earned $2.9 million on Friday, which is actually quite decent considering all the factors involved. It's a documentary, was only on 1,800 screens, opened on Wednesday (an Earth Day tie in) and is a re-edit of a television series from two years ago that is already available on DVD. All things considered, $2.9 million is pretty good. It could earn about $9 million for the weekend proper, with a very good chance ts happens to beat The Soloist.
Notable HoldoversNotable Holdovers
Zac Efron's [tm:4486_]17 Again[/tm] drops 59% from last Friday to $3.8 million in the face of a few openers. This is a bit higher than what could be expected, but the drop was probably made worse by the breakout of Obsessed. A second weekend of $11.2 million should be in store.
The political drama State of Play lost 55% from last Friday to $2.1 million. Despite solid reviews and word-of-mouth from audiences, which can typically lead to legs, it's hard to drum up interest in this particular genre. Look for $6.7 million in the second frame.
Continuing the most disturbing trend of the year (but it happened to a film that was always a likely candidate for it), [tm:4066_]Crank: High Voltage[/tm] is off 70% from last Friday. Give it $2.3 million