Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
April 6, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Fast & Furious set the April opening weekend record and became Universal's biggest non-holiday opening ever with $72.5 million. On a scale of "I totally expected this" to "I hope I wake up from this nightmare soon", how surprised are you by this result?
David Mumpower: Early reports on Friday had this earning somewhere around $20 million, which is about what I expected. Overnight, those projections kept going up to the point that it was at $30.1 million in the end. I had projected the film to do somewhere in the upper $40 million range, which would have been a fine result for a franchise whose last outing debuted to $24 million. An opening total that surpasses the ENTIRE DOMESTIC RUN of Fast and the Furious: Toykyo Drift by almost $10 million is about as stunned as I can be by a box office result. What is particularly troubling for me is that I can almost always identify the rationale behind such a performance. A $72 million opening for what I had presumed to be a dying franchise - and I absolutely hate having to admit this - is something I cannot explain. It's almost as if there was collective hypnosis used across the globe (it's a blockbuster overseas as well) to make people forget that the second and third films happened, making them instead believe that they have been anxiously awaiting this sequel since 2001. It defies logic that this, the fourth outing of a tired format, would be the one that breaks out to this degree.
Les Winan: Never underestimate the stupidity of the American people.
Tim Briody: To steal something that Reagen said over the weekend: WTF, America?
David Mumpower: Apparently, people want more driving with their bromance.
Brandon Scott: Everybody, everything I read had it pegged in the $40 millions somewhere, so yeah, it's the talk of the town here in LA. I would like to say I am shocked, so here goes, "I...Am...shock..." I just can't bring myself to complete it. This is the same America where this franchise is in its fourth installment. This is the same America that made Paul Walker, aka Keanu Reeves Jr., a star (I guess). This is the same America where Tyler Perry opens well and Paul Blart has defied expectations. So, I am....highly surprised by the figure, but not shocked.
Josh Spiegel: Before I went to the theaters Friday night to see Adventureland (I was one of the few, it seems), I'd have been very surprised to see this figure, but once I saw the lines of people for Fast & Furious, coupled with the people outside running - yes, running - to get to the show on time, I kind of expected an astronomic figure. I'm sure it helps that the original cast is back, but those trailers were so well-edited, I even considered seeing it. I was able to hold myself back, but the simple nature of just showing various scenes, sans music, probably got people more psyched.
Kim Hollis: I just don't understand this opening at all. Not even a little. The franchise seemed tired after the second film, and that belief seemed to be proven out by the performance of the third movie, Tokyo Drift. I always thought the fourth movie felt like a too little, too late cash grab on the parts of Paul Walker and Vin Diesel, and I guess it can still be considered that. They just grabbed a whole lot more cash than I ever imagined was possible - $72 million in opening weekend alone is just slightly less than I would have predicted for the entire theatrical run.
Vin Diesel needed F&F as much as it needed him, perhaps
Kim Hollis: How important a factor in the fourth movie's opening weekend success was Vin Diesel's acrimonious departure from the franchise after the first film? Also, do you think the second film would have seen similar results if Diesel had participated?
David Mumpower: As I move the pieces around in my head, what becomes clear is that we have effectively pushed the fourth film into the second film's slot. Stay with me on this. The first movie in the franchise was a blockbuster and it was also a good movie, something that most people have forgotten by now. The standoff between Paul Walker and Vin Diesel's characters went unresolved when Diesel chose to do other projects, most notably xXx and the Pitch Black sequel, instead. The second film opened so well due to the premise we have been espousing on BOP for a while now, the idea that a film's quality strongly impacts its sequel's opening weekend performance. A level of trust is built with the audience in this regard.
2 Fast 2 Furious, one of the worst films of the 2000s, had the same impact on Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift. Its lack of quality was negative reinforcement for consumers about spending money on the third film in the series. That's a bit unfortunate, because it was a better film and viewers also missed out on a surprise appearance by Diesel at the end. Had he been in the second film, this weekend's results support the notion that we would have seen an X-Men to X2: X-Men United type of opening weekend spike. Instead, there was a sequel with a spectacular opening weekend followed by what was at the time historically terrible legs. It was so disliked that consumers gave the third production no chance. With the return of the most engaging character from the first film, however, we finally got that delayed sequel explosion that had been on hold for two films. I'm having trouble coming up with another such example of this behavior in the box office annals.
Tim Briody: As David said, it's like the second and third films never happened. Because Vin Diesel was in it, Fast & Furious was treated by audiences as the proper sequel to The Fast and the Furious, which thanks to the titles of the films, becomes one of the stupidest things I've ever typed.
Brandon Scott: From an analytical standpoint...I would likely echo David to a large extent. I don't know if it would have opened THIS big, but still, I think the idea is that this is the true sequel. I have only seen the first, so maybe I should see this (critically bashed that it is) as the true sequel. Ultimately, this reinforces the ability of Diesel to be a draw at the box office I mean, the Pacifier did well after all, and those who saw Boiler Room know that he is capable of acting. He just doesn't seem to show it/display it much these days. Walker is a different entity entirely, though. Into the Blue, had him and Jess Alba and it still didn't do anything to my recollection. I don't think Walker is capable of acting whatsoever, with his best effort being the under-seen, and actually pretty entertaining, Running Scared.
Kim Hollis: I don't think I credit it to the "acrimonious" departure of Diesel, but I do think I credit the success to Diesel to a large part. The series is able to put some unfinished storylines to bed as they're able to resolve some of the conflict between Dom and Brian and take them in some new directions. And in the process, it looks like they probably can add a fifth film to the franchise and expect some level of success. I guess people really liked the "getting the gang back together" aspect of the movie.
It looks like both of them have been juicing plenty already
Kim Hollis: Who gets the most juice from this, Paul Walker, Vin Diesel, or the next couple of Fast and the Furious films?
David Mumpower: A rising tide lifts all boats here. A couple of weeks ago, I would have laughed at the notion of Paul Walker as Captain America, but I half-expect that deal to be signed this month because of this. With regards to Vin Diesel, who is still only 41, all is forgiven for the abominations that were Babylon A.D. and Find Me Guilty. What people are going to remember from this period of his career now will be The Pacifier and this whereas it should have been A Man Apart, The Chronicles of Riddick and the two films I just mentioned. He instantly changes from being perceived a guy who makes poor career decisions to the star of three $40+ million openers with Fast & Furious, The Fast and the Furious, and xXx as well as a $30 million one with The Pacifier (I'm not counting Saving Private Ryan since that wasn't because of him). He's back in a big way as worldwide audiences (he's one of the most popular actors abroad) have just clearly established to him the roles they want to see him play. He's expected to be an action hero, not an actor, whether he likes it or not. As for the franchise itself, this is a Westley from The Princess Bride scenario. It went from dead to mostly dead to slightly alive to heroic once more. Universal effectively closed their eyes and swung as hard as they could, thereby almost accidentally hitting the ball out of the ballpark.
Brandon Scott: I don't know how the "franchise" aspect of this plays out. I think it was clear in the first place that Diesel thought he was above it after the first, and now, clearly, he will be the recipient of the most financial rewards based on this film's performance. There is no denying that he is the "marquee" name here and I think he will indeed get plenty of action offers as David suggested. I don't know that he will come back for another sequel, though, and I don't know that the franchise really keeps going forward from here to be honest. I haven't seen the film. I don't know if it is open-ended (not that it really matters) but I think he and Walker will get more work and the women will continue to be tokens of sorts, although Rodriguez has steadily worked (playing the same girl in every movie she has ever done). "Hi, I am mean and I scowl a lot and I am somewhat of a "reluctant" sex symbol, despite my real life leanings." As Bruno said in his new trailer, "I don't know whether you know this or not, but I'm gay." So MRod will still work, and Brewster I don't expect we will still see that much of. Derek Jeter was her biggest moment prior to this, and may still end up being so.
Kim Hollis: I think the sad reality is that Fast & Furious gets Paul Walker more movies because studios will believe that he is a draw. Diesel will benefit as well, but I've always rather liked him in the right roles so I'm less bothered by that. As I mentioned previously, the one thing I think we can be sure of is that there will be at least one more Fast & Furious movie. The box office for opening weekend has proven to the studio that it's a money-maker.