Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
March 23, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: I Love You, Man finished in second place with $17.8 million. What do you think of this result?
Josh Spiegel: I'm not too surprised with this result; it seems to fall in line with previous Judd Apatow or, in this case, Judd Apatow-esque comedies, like Forgetting Sarah Marshall, Role Models, 40 Year-Old Virgin. It would have been nice for Paul Rudd and Jason Segel to get a bigger opening, but for a comedy as funny as this one, with two leads who aren't the biggest stars in the universe, I think it's an impressive enough open.
Jason Lee: While I did think that this movie would at least eclipse $20 million, it's a solid opening. You have a couple of big, but not huge stars, in a bromance storyline, while the male crowd was obviously preferring to see things get blowed up real good. This movie was capped in terms of gross from the very beginning.
Brandon Scott: Josh mentioned the two titles that were indicative of its expected results in Forgetting Sarah Marshall and to a larger extent Role Models. So this figure falls right in line with those and the two "stars" should be pleased. Am I the only one who found the trailers repulsively unfunny? Segel just doesn't engage me as an actor, at some point an every-man schtick is not enough for the big screen. An actor has to have charisma in order to really be a worthy draw over time. I think Rudd has that. I would have liked to see Brad Pitt and Will Smith play in a film like this, only to show what charisma could do for a concept like this. Then the film would have instantly had much more crossover appeal and box office potential. Studio heads take note.
Max Braden: I think the marketing push helped. I saw a lot of ads, but on top of that there was a big "Introducing Paul Rudd" theme going around.
Daron Aldridge: As Tim pointed out in the Friday Analysis, this hit exactly where it was always going to and the studios had to have expected it to mimic the performance Role Models and Sarah Marshall. Nice one, Tim. As long as the studios are smart about it and continue to keep the budget for these films around the $28 million of Role Models, the films will continue to be in the black.
Kim Hollis: I had imagined that I Love You, Man might have had a more cumulative effect from the combination of Paul Rudd and Jason Segel that what it wound up with. It's right in line with Role Models, but I have to think that it ought to have finished in the low $20s. Regardless, I think it should have nice staying power at the box office but I've been confounded by the way things have performed this year, to be sure.
David Mumpower: While I agree with what everyone else has said here, I have to be honest that this movie's opening weekend performance is a disappointment. Given the ascending popularity of the two leads, I had expected a debut north of $20 million, possibly even $25 million. For whatever reason, the trailers for this never managed to sell it as a good enough successor to Role Models to justify the return business. It's either that or McLovin is something of a box office draw, something I say half as a joke and half as a serious thought process about his (fleeting) popularity coming off of Superbad.
Do not insult the Apatow. You will pay.
Kim Hollis: Have these Apatow-crew films gotten as disposable as horror film remakes or is there still a uniqueness in these various comedies?
Jason Lee: I think they've still got some life in them - at least in this film, you have a pretty novel concept with some attractive and likable lead actors. As long as you're not expecting them to do 40 Year-Old Virgin numbers, I think you're safe.
Brandon Scott: The answer here is both. They are disposable and generic, but they can and will still have life. There is no question that some elements appeal to a large segment of the population. Many people feel that when they see a Rogen or Segel on screen, it is a win for them, the "average guy" making it to the big screen. But I personally feel that they are treading on very thin ice at this point. Somehow they need to incorporate a larger troupe of actors and concepts into the mix, rather than here is another comedy with a guy angle. Show me some range. Show me you can bring some outsiders in to the group. Show me that there is more depth to you (meaning the group, concepts, etc.) as whole than just churning out middle of the road comedy. I know that will probably be enough for many people, especially in an industry that often seems it puts out stale product anyway, but I ask for and need more.
Joel Corcoran: I think Judd Apatow and friends are continuing to find enough new twists to keep their movies alive, so they haven't yet descended to the "cookie-cutter remake" level of recent horror films. I Love You, Man is sort of like a remake of My Best Friend's Wedding, but with an understated homoerotic tone to it that director Josh Hamburg handles with a very deft touch. I don't know if we're ever going to see another breakout hit like Anchorman or The 40 Year-Old Virgin, but there's enough fresh takes and new twists out there to keep the genre alive for a while.
Max Braden: I think Apatow still has room to grow and bring in audiences. He hooked them with 40 Year-Old Virgin but can't expect to keep putting out the same product without becoming a producer of pointless, straight-to-video, National Lampoon's sex comedies. He hit on the regular guy appeal, and that can last. Look at how long Seinfeld was on the air, and how much business Ben Stiller and Adam Sandler still do in the movies.
Sean Collier: Too many projects are getting lumped under the Apatow umbrella to really get a good idea. While his involvement is spread far and wide, and the success of the current batch of performers can be attributed to him, it's worth knowing that only The 40 Year-Old Virgin and Knocked Up were truly his projects. This'll be an interesting question to answer after Funny People comes out.
Daron Aldridge: True, Sean, that those were the only two films that he directed but he also wrote Dewey Cox, and was the producer for Talledega Nights, Superbad, Forgetting Sarah Marshall, and Step Brothers, among others. So I think his reach is pretty broad.
There is still quite a lot of mileage in these comedies as opposed to the horror remakes. These comedies don't rely upon the nostalgia pull of horror remakes that need that name-recognition to get it on people's radar, which seem to follow "a one weekend and done" for the most part. Apatow and Apatow-like films smartly use the average Joe appeal and don't shy away from the reality that we all pretty much live in an R-rated world and profanity-laced conversations aren't uncommon. Embracing that makes the characters even more relatable and even endearing, in my opinion. Just look at the flop that was last year's Over Her Dead Body, where Rudd figured prominently in the ads. It was just generic, forgettable romantic comedy fluff, which didn't serve him well. Put the same player in an R rated film and remove the constraints to play blue and audiences show up.
Kim Hollis: The "Apatow Gang" seems to be able to pick the right projects to appeal to a mass audience. With I Love You, Man, we actually have a movie with Apatow alums rather than any actual involvement from Apatow himself. Obviously, though, he's had an impact on their career trajectories. There's certainly a market for this sort of comedy, and I don't see it going away, but perhaps morphing into something else at some point. And the people involved - Seth Rogen, Jason Segel, Paul Rudd, et al - have the talent to keep moving forward. I do suspect that we'll see Rogen move to the director's chair at some point, actually. I think "talent tends to cluster" is the appropriate axiom here.
David Mumpower: The idea of the buddy comedy is far from unique on its own, but I think the problem the Apatow disciples are starting to face is one of novelty. It seems like the term bromance only showed up last year yet a lot of people are already sick of the very thought of it. All of the films from these branches off the Apatow tree involve this premise in some fashion. In fact, the cynic in me notes that I Love You, Man is 25% Forgetting Sarah Marshall, 60% Role Models and 15% The Promotion. It's difficult to distinguish when all of these titles seem to have that same basic tenet of bros before hos, at least to some degree.
Pete Kilmer: I think the Apatow Crew have a long life ahead of them. I introduced my older (55, 52) brothers and their wives to them with The 40 Year-Old Virgin and Knocked Up. They loved the films and then reminisced about the SNL/Second City crew that made the jump to films in the early '80s (Akroyd post-Belushi, Bill Murray, and Harold Ramis). Now my brothers' kids, who are all in their 20s, are all about Jason Segel and Seth Rogen and those guys so they go see the movies with their parents. Plenty of life ahead for the Apatow gang as long as they keep making movies with a bit of 'heart' in them.