Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
March 23, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com

Dude, I'm glad we won, too, but this is growing uncomfortable.

Nic Cage is Knowing what comes Next. (Bear suit!)

Kim Hollis: Knowing, the Alex Proyas-directed film starring BOP's favorite whipping boy Nicolas Cage, opened to $24.6 million. What do you think of this result?

Josh Spiegel: I think Nicolas Cage's deal with the devil will continue for many years to come, apparently. What do mainstream audiences like about Cage so much? Every time one of his movies hits number one these days, I just shake my head; it's completely baffling to me that so many people flock to his work, for the most part (how did The Wicker Man not get the top spot, I wonder?). I'm disappointed, mostly, as it means that Cage gets to continue working in some of the biggest garbage Hollywood has to offer.

Tim Briody: I could have sworn this movie was already released but there was something about it that audiences didn't see in Next, as Knowing has already outgrossed it.

Jason Lee: I applaud the folks at Summit Entertainment - after the spectacular performance of Twilight and the solid performance of Push, I think this up-and-coming studio is proving that they can deliver the goods. That said, the opening of this movie totally blew past my expectations for its opening weekend...but does anyone else think that this movie will not have any legs?

Brandon Scott: As for the total figure, it seems a solid number to me. I'm a little surprised that it nearly doubled up on Duplicity, though. Cage continues to remain one of the biggest anomalies in Tinseltown. He has acting chops, but so frequently fails to need them/utiltize them by turning out seemingly run-of-the mill thrillers. This one had a slightly different angle to it, but not enough to fail to make many of us cringe. How do we as BOP writers compare as a cross-section of America, though? That is the key, as obviously, America still loves the guy enough to win a weekend during a somewhat crowded weekend.

Daron Aldridge: I think Brandon is on to something with the mass appeal of Cage. If you look at the Rotten Tomatoes Community rating for Cage, they give him 62% freshness and Knowing a 63%. So not accounting for taste and talent, it seems that his box office pull will be debated for many more years. Personally, there is little to no differentiation between this one and 2007's Next. Maybe audiences were more willing to buy into Nicolas Cage as a poor man's Nostrodamus/heroic father over a time-jumping Nicolas Cage with a hot girlfriend. Or it could be all the doomsday talk by the GOP made people think this was a documentary of things to come.

Max Braden: It beating Next is no surprise - Knowing had big set piece visual appeal while Next was just about the chase. This is the kind of material that can bring in $50 million plus around Memorial Day weekend (I'm thinking of The Day After Tomorrow). And even though Cage brought a sense of legitimacy to what could have been just a straight to SciFi Channel or network MOW, you probably could have swapped in Mario Lopez and seen a $20 million-plus opening. On the other hand I expected Julia Roberts to win the weekend, so given the season and winning the weekend, I think Summit can be satisfied. They should see plenty of business on the DVD end.

Sean Collier: I don't think Cage really affected things one way or another; any mid-tier star would've pulled in the same result, I'd say. Disaster movies - especially movies that promise a multitude of disasters - sell themselves. I'm a bit surprised that it pulled down number one, and it might've done better over a holiday weekend, as Max mentioned; but I think this is a very solid result for the project, and, as Jason mentioned, another strong showing from Summit.

Kim Hollis: I just have no idea what distinguishes this movie from every other crappy-looking Nic Cage movie that we've gotten over the past few years. I mentioned to someone a few weeks ago that since Cage seems to have a success like every third movie, that should mean that Knowing (I actually had to look through the thread to remember the title) would be a hit. This should mean that Kick-Ass - or whatever his next movie on the schedule is - will fail miserably, even with its comic book roots.

David Mumpower: I think Tim's point about Next is well considered as I have no idea what the differentiation from Knowing is intuited to be. But I strongly disagree with Max's assertion that Mario Lopez would have meant just as much to the movie's bottom line. As we have discussed a lot (Cage has a new movie out every three months, it seems), North American audiences seem to have a natural recognition of Cage's works. They can readily distinguish the wheat from the chaff, and this seemed like a more exciting Cage property than normal. Because of this, it drew a decent percentage of the National Treasure opening weekend crowd.

Confound it!

Kim Hollis: How impressive a feat is it that a director as confounding as Proyas has had three hits on the scale of The Crow, I Robot and Knowing?

Jason: I find it interesting that it's taken 20 years for Proyas to churn out five movies. With that said, I respect him for what he's done. He's got a good eye for creating stories in which layers of reality get peeled back, one by one. I'm glad that a thoughtful director like him can find box-office success, even if it's not always at the level of his masterpiece, Dark City.

Brandon Scott: I don't know that I find this feat particularly impressive. Taking the three titles individually: we have The Crow which didn't do huge business, but had the added "bonus" of a hot actor dying during the shoot (akin to Ledger with The Dark Knight on a smaller scale), I, Robot had the biggest movie star on the planet, and Knowing has the divisive Cage in the lead, where he either hits big or misses badly, it seems. So, as a body of work, there is nothing truly telling in terms of Proyas' ability in particular through these titles and results. I enjoyed The Crow to some extent and Dark City, but I don't see these results indicative of his abilities/sensibilities any more than the same would apply to anyone else with the same actors and circumstances involved. A convoluted answer, but accurate to me nevertheless.

Joel Corcoran: The only confounding thing about Alex Proyas is why he doesn't take on more projects. He's obviously talented, has a good eye for directing, and has proven himself in movies and music videos (so he's demonstrated some range). His major films have been well-reviewed, with I, Robot being a huge commercial success as well. But then he spends time on very small pictures that you'd expect from a newly-graduated film student. I just don't get it.

Max Braden: I don't want to say his talent is on par with Daniel Day-Lewis, but if he's as picky and that results in quality movies, it's hard to argue with his pace.

Daron Aldridge: I don't think that you can really credit Alex Proyas for the success of any of the films. The Crow had an intriguing look but its profile was raised because of tragedy which helped get it to that $50 million total. If I remember correctly, the summer of 1994 was a crowded one with the next four weeks seeing the opening of Maverick, Flintstones and Speed. All of which quickly pushed The Crow out of the top ten. It is also highly doubtful that people went to see I, Robot or Knowing because they were Proyas films. Dark City is probably the only one that cashed in on his name/fanbase and we know that it didn't revolutionize the box office. Again this is not a judgment on his talent, anymore than Cage's appeal is a validation of his talent.

Kim Hollis: I don't know what to do with Proyas. He seems like he's fairly visionary in his ideas and creative approach to things, but then he's been sort of in the mainstream rather than doing more edgy fare like Dark City. I can't imagine that makes him very happy. He seems like the type to want more cult success but I suppose money talks.

David Mumpower: I'm exactly the sort of movie viewer Proyas would hate. I liked his Hollywood blockbuster, I, Robot, and I loved his comic book adaptation, The Crow. Meanwhile, I found Dark City to be overwrought, pretentious nonsense and thought Garage Days was total dreck. Clearly, I only like his mainstream work and it's people like me he resents because we're the reason he's forced to work within the studio system. I strongly suspect this is the reason why he is so methodical in picking his projects. It's for this reason that I have a world of respect for him. He's found a way to compromise on his projects without compromising on his point of view. In the process, he's figured out a way to make movies that make money without dumbing them down for mainstream consumption. He's the moneymaking version of Terrence Malick.