Snapshot: May 22-25, 1992
By Joel West
March 12, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com

He needs either a surfboard or a commode. I can't decide which.

The box office performance of a film these days is almost as important as the film's quality itself. As unfortunate as that may be, the facts are the facts. So while your movie may be as good as It's a Wonderful Life, Citizen Kane, or even The Shawshank Redemption (all box office disappointments in their own right), if the marketing, release date, and apparent quality don't resonate with audiences, its commercial success could suffer. As with everything in history, time produces clarity. This column will take a look back at a specific time at the movies and try and determine the factors that led to a movie's success or failure.

Pauly Shore...movie star?

Relative to production costs and expectations, that very terrifying string of words was quite the reality 17 years ago. Even more outrageous is his film debut went up against a very popular sci-fi series and a Tom Cruise-Ron Howard collaboration!!!

Not long ago, the summer movie season always kicked off on Memorial Day weekend; whereas the first weekend in May is the norm these days. However in 1992, a crowded holiday weekend prompted Lethal Weapon 3 to open a week earlier to safeguard the millions it was predicted to earn. The payoff was substantial, as the formidable series had its then highest opening at $33 million (the second biggest opening ever at the time). Clearly Lethal Weapon 3 was setting the summer bar quite high for all newcomers and the field would be wide open up until Batman Returns would lay waste to all competition on June 19th (its predecessor had the biggest opening at the time). Memorial Day weekend would see two high-profile contenders and a scrappy underdog vying to steal the top spot from Riggs and Murtaugh.

The most likely candidate to unseat Lethal Weapon 3 was also a third entry into a very popular and highly regarded action series. Alien 3 was at the time billed as the expected conclusion in the Alien series. Series star Sigourney Weaver had already fought an Alien for Ridley Scott (to the tune of $78 million) and Aliens for James Cameron ($85 million); and had to be nothing short of begged to return for a third (the $5 million payday certainly helped). To say the film had a troubled production is an understatement in the highest regard (the documentary that accompanies the film on DVD is more interesting than the film itself). First time director David Fincher took over a project that had been bounced around for years and had to start shooting without a finished script. Post-production was reportedly even worse as the studio took the final product from Fincher and reworked it on their own.

So why exactly was the film likely to do any business at the box office?

Well, for starters, the first two kicked major ass! Scott and Cameron had each provided their own artistic stamp to the sci-fi series and in turn each are widely regarded as classics. Weaver was (and still is) the greatest action heroine of all time. And the series' other star (you know, the one with the name in title) is one of the greatest modern day monster-creations. Troubled production be damned, people wanted to see an Alien film. The addition of Fincher was at the time considered a novelty (the now tired trend of music video director turned film director), so fans and critics alike were curious to see what this guy had up his sleeve. Couple that with an alleged surprise ending and there was a real possibility that all the headaches that went into making the $50 million film had paid off.

The weekend's other potential blockbuster was the Ron Howard directed epic Far and Away. The $60 million film starred then box office behemoth Tom Cruise and "then" wife Nicole Kidman as Irish immigrants seeking the American dream. Anyone who saw an ad for that film knew this had Oscar bait written all over it. Then why it was being released in the summer as opposed to the Oscar season (November to December time frame)? Certainly Howard had box office success exactly a year earlier with Backdraft ($77 million), but that film's content (and special effects) was more in line with the summer blockbusters when compared to Far and Away.

On the other hand, Far and Away did have Tom Cruise's name above the title and that had certainly been enough to make even the crappiest of films profitable. How else do you explain Cocktail ($78 million) and Days of Thunder ($82 million) making some coin? Far and Away certainly had higher aspirations than those two sugar-candy throw-aways and Cruise was looking to cross the once sacred $100 million mark for the first time in almost four years. At that early point in his career, Cruise had already steered an action film (1986's Top Gun) and an Oscar winner (1988's Rain Man) to $170+ million; and Far and Away was hoping to be a little bit of both. The only question was if Cruise and Kidman could generate any heat to make the romance angle (and in turn the backbone) of the film work. While the aforementioned Days of Thunder turned a tidy profit, many felt the Cruise-Kidman part of the story was weak and in turn hindered the film's overall success.



The third (and unlikeliest choice to challenge for the top spot) film opening Memorial Day weekend was Pauly Shore's Encino Man. Well, the plot makes absolutely no sense whatsoever and I really can't remember if Shore was even funny in it. But the film did introduce the world to Brendan Fraser and kept Sean Astin busy between The Goonies and The Lord of the Rings (1993's Rudy helped pass time as well). Shore had been an MTV staple for a couple years and his hippie lifestyle and "hey buuuuddy" catch phrase had developed him a sort of fanbase. No one really expected the fanbase to be strong enough to make Encino Man a hit, especially with all the other high profile choices available. However, Wayne's World had already "captivated" the same demographic to the tune of $121 million, so anything was possible.

When the holiday weekend came to a conclusion, the top four films pushed the overall box office to a new Memorial Day record (top 12 films brought in over $88 million). Leading the pack was Lethal Weapon 3 with a monstrous second weekend take of $27 million. Riggs and Murtaugh would hold on to the top spot for one more weekend and finish with $144 million (just behind the *vastly superior* Lethal Weapon 2 - $147 million). Six years later, the gang would rejoin one more time (hopefully) for the downright pedestrian Lethal Weapon 4 ($130 million). Coming in a close second was Alien 3 with a very respectful $23 million for the four day frame. Far behind in third and fourth place were Far and Away ($12 million) and Encino Man ($9 million).

Bad buzz and reviews could not keep movie-goers away from Alien 3. Likely attributed to the clever, if not misleading trailer ("the bitch is back") and title (why is 3 cubed? will there be three times the Aliens?), fans flocked to see Ripley once again lay waste to Alien scum. Unfortunately, poor word-of-mouth spread like wildfire and Alien 3 suffered a then colossal second week drop of 57% ($8 million). The lack of a credible story coupled with nothing remotely new or original to the franchise equivocally knocked the legs out from under the film ($55 million total gross). Whereas the first two reinvented the horror and sci-fi genre each time out, Alien 3 was nothing more than a lazy retread of the first two. *Tangent Alert - call me crazy, but I certainly would rather see Vincent Ward's rejected vision (again watch the documentary) of Alien 3 fail miserably than just a half-hearted regurgitation.*** At least we would have known the filmmakers were trying. That certainly was a criticism Fincher would never be accused of again, as he has since turned into one of the best filmmakers around. In fact, Fincher's resume is so impressive (Seven, Fight Club, Zodiac, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), many feel that somewhere a better version of Alien 3 exists that will never be seen.

Not surprisingly, the opening gross was likely enough to convince the 20th Century Fox to try and make another Alien film. The result was 1997's Alien Resurrection, a skewed but ultimately unoriginal installment in the franchise (and they even had Michael Wincott!!!). The fourth entry made $25 million over the Thanksgiving holiday and then, like Alien 3, fell off the earth ($48 million total gross). Evidently, the once promising and invincible series had obviously exhausted its premise (the least said about the Alien vs. Predator films the better).

Far and Away's weekend gross was somewhat surprising given the talent involved. However, the box office performance of a movie of its caliber is largely dictated by reviews and mixed ones at best were clearly not enough to get audiences to sit through a two and a half hour movie about Irish immigrants, even with Cruise. Far and Away did have better legs than Alien 3 (finishing up with $58 million against a $60 million budget), but the overall result was considered a disappointment. Don't worry, folks. Howard, Kidman, and Cruise had no problem rebounding from Far and Away's middling performance. Kidman and Cruise even tried a third time to have a successful pairing on the big screen, but alas, 1999's Eyes Wide Shut was not that film.



While a fourth place finish and $9 million don't scream success, Shore and the Encino Man crew had to be happy given the competition they were up against. As previously stated, Wayne's World had been a box office smash throughout early spring and clearly the demographic was left wanting. Encino Man (topping out at a very respectable $40 million) was obviously the perfect vehicle for Shore, and his presence hadn't grated his fans just yet. The only other high school comedy on the horizon was Kid ‘n Play's Class Act opening two weeks later; and judging by its performance ($13 million), their House Party days at the box office were behind them. Shore was able to extend his fleeting fame for at least another year as 1993's Son-in-Law finished with a respectable $36 million (not to mention the lovely Carla Gugino's first starring role!!!). Then the 15 minutes wore off and In the Army Now ($28 million), Jury Duty ($17 million), and Bio-Dome (13 million) collectively finished Shore's big screen career.

The Verdict: Obviously the verdict was easy to see, hence the studios released their big summer films earlier in May as opposed to Memorial Day weekend. After Lethal Weapon 3, the season's blockbusters opened earlier and earlier in the month of May until 1999's The Mummy pulled in a massive $43 million the first weekend of the month. And while the action three-quel opened big, movie-goers enjoyed it enough to either spread the word or go back for seconds. Alien 3 suffered the exact opposite as the sci-fi three-quel was a one weekend wonder.

And as for Shore, never discount an underage-trend at its peak; see Pokemon, Hannah Montana, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Mighty Morphin Power Rangers...