Friday Box Office Analysis
By Tim Briody
March 7, 2009

Masked and anonymous.

Hey look, a lot of people watched the [tm:1179_]Watchmen[/tm]. Bet you haven't heard that joke yet!


Watchmen, the most anticipated movie of the year so far (sorry, Jonas Brothers fans) earned $25.1 million on Friday. As is customary with event films, there were midnight showings, with a reported take of $4.6 million, making the true Friday night number $20.5 million, which will be the number I use towards figuring out the multiplier, putting the midnight sneak figure back in at the end.

As far as comparisons go, I am continually drawn to 2007's 300 for a couple of reasons. First, Watchmen and 300 opened on the exact same weekend, both films were generally accepted as the first big blockbuster of the year (sorry, Paul Blart) and (to a lesser extent as far as box office goes,) Zack Snyder directed both films.

The testosterone-fueled 300 managed a $28.1 million Friday (also boosted by midnight sneaks) and a 2.52 multiplier to earn $70.8 million opening weekend. With 300 having earned a few million more than Watchmen opening night, I can see the possibility for Watchmen to equal or perhaps improve on the multiplier set by 300. Beating 300 is essentially out of the question unless something remarkable occurs, though. I like something around a 2.6 for Watchmen, based off the $20.5 million Friday. Add the midnight sneaks figure back in and Watchmen checks in with a very strong $57.9 million for the weekend.

The Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience

They merit another mention here because the movie pretty much defines the expression driving off a cliff as their concert film is off 83% from last Friday. Yes, that would be the second 80%+ drop we've had in 2009. The box office never ceases to amaze. After last week's generally miserable multiplier, things should improve slightly, but it's still a second weekend of $2.9 million.