Snapshot: July 1-4, 1994
By Joel West
February 12, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com

Judging from Van Helsing and this, heroes should never wear facial scarves.
The box office performance of a film these days is almost as important as the film's quality itself. As unfortunate as that may be, the facts are the facts. So while your movie may be as good as It's a Wonderful Life, Citizen Kane, or even The Shawshank Redemption (all box office disappointments in their own right), if the marketing, release date, and apparent quality don't resonate with audiences, its commercial success could suffer. As with everything in history, time produces clarity. This column will take a look back at a specific time at the movies and try and determine the factors that led to a movie's success or failure.

Over the 4th of July weekend in 1994, studios were compelled to throw as many as five films at moviegoers to see which one would stick. The Shadow, Blown Away, I Love Trouble, Baby's Day Out, and Little Big League collectively covered just about every genre possible with at least one hoping to break from the pack. Unfortunately, this particular weekend was wedged between the openings of two of the decade's biggest box office behemoths.

The summer of ‘94's box office already had its peaks and valleys; however, there were no films that looked to pull in the business the previous summer's Jurassic Park ($357 million) did. Maverick ($101 million), The Flintstones ($130 million), and Speed ($121 million) were all solid hits, yet none were going to get even half the business of last year's champ. However, there seemed to be hope on the horizon as the weekend prior to the July holiday saw The Lion King open to $40.8 million (a then record for an animated feature). Disney's previous animated blockbuster Aladdin had displayed some of the best legs ever for a movie (Aladdin opened in 1992 to $19.2 million on its way to $217 million) let alone a kid's flick, so Simba and the gang looked to gobble down at least $250 million. While the Disney blockbuster potentially spelled trouble for the kid oriented Little Big League and Baby's Day Out, the other three films were vying for the adult audiences.

The film with the biggest breakout potential was The Shadow. Based on a 1930s radio show of the same name, The Shadow now closely resembled Tim Burton's hugely successful Batman franchise. While Batman was currently undergoing the transition from the Burton era to the Schumacher debacle, The Shadow hoped to corner the fan-boy demographic salivating for the adventures of a billionaire superhero. Alec Baldwin donned the cape of the conflicted protagonist, while John Lone (villain), Tim Curry (henchman), Penelope Ann Miller (damsel), and Jonathan Winters (um...Alfred) filled out the rest of the cast. While all great character actors in their own right, this was not exactly screaming blockbuster. Alec Baldwin was also a great character actor (Glengarry Glen Ross, Malice) and a tabloid favorite (his still ongoing exploits with then-wife Kim Basinger), but his appeal had yet to cross over to A-list stardom. Coupled with a then expensive price tag of $40 million and a rather generic director at the helm (Russell Mulcahy – the Highlander films, Ricochet, The Real McCoy), The Shadow's marketing instead relied heavily on the blatant similarities to the Cape Crusader (not to mention the catchphrase – Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men?). Unfortunately, curiosity over a '30s radio show hero wasn't able to vault 1990's Dick Tracy into Batman numbers and that film was populated with screen legends. On the other hand, The Shadow would be very content to settle with Dick Tracy's final gross ($103 million).

In 1994, Jeff Bridges was looking to become an action star in Blown Away. Tangent Rant: Has there been a greater cinematic crime that Jeff Bridges has never become the A-list and Oscar winning superstar that far lesser talents have become? Sure, he has been nominated for four Oscars (not for The Dude – the horror), but has only been in two $100 million plus grossing films (2003's Seabiscuit and 2008's Iron Man)! Already a bridesmaid coming off the heels of the aforementioned Speed in the mad-bomber genre, the film did possess the suddenly hot Tommy Lee Jones as the villain. Coming off his Oscar-winning performance in the hugely popular The Fugitive, Jones starred in no fewer than five films in 1994 (Blown Away, The Client, Natural Born Killers, Blue Sky, and Cobb). Luckily, Blown Away would be the first out of the gate before Jones fatigue would settle in. Ads for the film were pushing the suspense factor (commercials prominently showed household appliances as potential bomb threats) and the chance to see such critical darlings match wits. Blown Away also had the distinction of being the only R-rated choice opening over the holiday. With Speed entering into its second month, surely action fans were ready to whet the appetite on a new action opus.

The weekend's odds on favorite to flop was the aptly titled I Love Trouble. Julia Roberts and Nick Nolte starred as two competing newspaper reporters who fall in love while unraveling a mystery. Yes, Nolte and Roberts were paired as romantic leads. Nolte was still basking in his 1991 career renaissance that saw him nab an Oscar nomination and two hits (Prince of Tides - $74 million and Cape Fear - $79 million). Suddenly a box office presence, Nolte nabbed the lead role in three big films in 1994. The first two unfortunately were I'll Do Anything ($10 million) and Blue Chips ($23 million). Nolte was looking to avoid the hat trick with I Love Trouble, and his co-star was his ace in the hole. After taking a two-year break from movie domination (and likely laying low from the critical disaster that was Hook), Roberts had bounced back in 1993's The Pelican Brief ($100.7 million). The layoff had not affected America's love affair with Roberts, as they were ready for just about anything she starred in. But still, Nolte and Roberts as love interests!? Unsurprisingly, a troubled shoot, poor test screenings and unfunny ads showing the two leads bickering were not boding well for the film. Roberts would certainly be testing her relationship with the American movie-going public with this one.

The weekend's other offerings were Little Big League and Baby's Day Out. Little Big League was hoping to duplicate 1993's successful and vastly similar Rookie of the Year ($53.6 million), while Baby's Day Out was hoping to duplicate 1993's successful and vastly similar Dennis the Menace ($51.2 million). It is worth mentioning that Baby's Day Out was envisioned somewhat as a prequel to the Home Alone films. As stated earlier, The Lion King was the kid's movie of choice and neither of these films were going to stand any sort of chance.

Such is the circle of life.

After the final firework exploded in the sky, The Lion King reigned supreme for a second consecutive week with $34.2 million. A very distant second saw The Shadow nab $11.7 million followed closely by...Speed?! After four weeks, audiences chose Speed over the similarly themed Blown Away with $11.2 million to $10.4 million. I Love Trouble landed predictably in fifth place with $7.8 million and Baby's Day Out and Little Big League rounded out the top ten with $4 and $3.1 million respectfully. While neither of these films looked to set the world on fire, it was nonetheless surprising that all five performed so poorly.

The Shadow and Blown Away were likely beset by over-familiarity and poor word-of-mouth. As stated initially, The Shadow resembled too much of the ongoing Batman franchise and audiences decided collectively it was a very poor representation. Blown Away was only going to have any discernable box office impact if reviews were exceptional, much in line with Speed's accolades. Speed was lauded with turning the action formula on its head; Blown Away was just criticized for being formulaic. Neither displayed any thing resembling staying power and finished with lackluster results (The Shadow - $32 million, Blown Away - $30 million).

I Love Trouble stalled Roberts' return to box office dominance, something she wouldn't regain until 1997's My Best Friend's Wedding ($127 million). In fact, four out of her next five films never even made more than $11.5 million. Nolte should be so lucky. The goodwill he earned from his ‘91 one-two punch was never replenished. While he has earned some critical notices from time to time (1998's Affliction and The Thin Red Line and 2002's The Good Thief), Nolte never headlined a box office hit again (he likely was not responsible for Tropic Thunder's $110 million).

As far as Little Big League ($12 million) and Baby's Day Out ($17 million) are concerned, well, The Lion King mauled them both.

Unsurprisingly, The Lion King continued to roar throughout the summer (and then later re-released in November) collecting a massive $328 million. However, surprisingly, the following weekend saw the opening of Forrest Gump ($24 million). The Tom Hanks' vehicle would not only go on to best The Lion King's take ($329.7 million), but also win six Oscars, including Best Picture. Both films would end their run through the ‘90s as the fourth and fifth highest grossing films of the decade.

The Verdict: Hindsight is 20/20, so studio heads in the '90s would be best off not putting their films in between the opening weekends of a Disney animated film and a Tom Hanks blockbuster. Seriously, all five films were poor carbon copies of similar movies and audiences responded by not purchasing a ticket.

In baring full disclosure, this particular author apparently missed the memo and purchased a ticket for The Shadow, Blown Away, and I Love Trouble. Yikes.