Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
February 2, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Taken, the Liam Neeson action thriller, earned $24.7 million, making it one of the most successful Super Bowl weekend debuts to date. Why do you think this happened?
Max Braden: As bad as the dialogue was in the trailer, I think audiences saw a decent thriller. But the chance to see Liam Neeson kick the crap out of some bad guys just like Jack Bauer probably explains most of the box office results. Looking over the previous Super Bowl top openers: The Eye, The Messengers, When a Stranger Calls ($21 million in 2006), Boogeyman ($19 million in 2005) it seems this weekend is usually led by horror movies. Given a choice between them, I'd see Taken instead of the others.
Tim Briody: I think the notion of box office dead zones is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Fox decided to eschew the tradition of Super Bowl weekend with Taken and it paid off for them. It helped that it was so slick looking.
Joel Corcoran: I disagree with Max's opinion that the dialogue in the trailer was "bad," but he and Tim hit the main reasons for this film's success. Taken looks like a tight, well-done thriller that is backed by some great trailers. And the timing for the release is perfect. I also think think the trailers do an excellent job of presenting Liam Neeson's character as morally complex, suave, and tough - a type of character he's played very well in the past. Here's a guy who tells his daughter to crawl under the bed so she'll be captured and then speaks to the kidnappers on the phone like he's got a customer service complaint. Is he a good guy or a bad guy? Did he tell the daughter to hide under the bed to save her from the risks of trying to escape? Or is he using her as a way to get to the kidnappers? And what type of man could remain so calm while essentially orchestrating his own daughter's capture?
Brandon Scott: Hey, I think the trailers generated significant interest. There was nothing bad about it. I do fear that the best stuff was shown in the trailer, though. Neeson's voiceover diatribe was great since that trailer launched months back. As for its success, I would tend to agree with Tim. It took a chance, unlike the usual counter-programming for women, and I am definitely glad it worked. I think reasonable reviews helped in this area as well. Joel does ask a lot of questions, though, about Neeson's character. Now I am even more intrigued to see the movie. Doesn't mean I will, but I am more intrigued.
Scott Lumley: C'mon now, who isn't gonna show up for Qui-Gon calmly getting medieval on the bad guys? As a new daddy, I may have to watch this and take notes in case somebody messes with my munchkin.
In all seriousness, it had some stylish and intriguing trailers that promised a slick thriller coupled with some fairly intense violence. On Super Bowl weekend that's like offering candy to schoolchildren. We football fans have to watch something until the big game comes on.
Jason Lee: In semi-agreement with everyone that's already piped in, I think that the trailer and (more notably) the commercials for Taken did something that no film has done successfully since Cloverfield: they used a minimal amount of film footage to allow the audience to grasp the entire hook of the film while maximizing their interest in seeing it.
David Mumpower: I too credit the trailers. While I have no idea what a Qui-Gon is, I was intrigued by the premise of an older man being an unholy terror. The Jack Bauer comment is well placed, but I think something that has been overlooked too often in recent cinema is the value of the aging tough guy. Lucky Number Slevin understood the value of this variation of storytelling. The premise that only the very best of the best survivors make it long enough to have a chance at dying of natural causes really works when done well. This trailer offered the promise that Liam Neeson could be such a character, an even more mature/wise version of Leon. Jean Reno was 46 when that film came out, while Neeson is 56. The viewer fills in how many disasters would have been averted in that additional decade of survival. It's a good premise and I'm not surprised it sold here.
Reagen Sulewski: I think it's easy to forget just how physically imposing a guy Liam Neeson is, plus 55 is the new 35. And while Neeson's never been a star, I think he's probably one of the more likable actors out there, and he's a guy who has almost always had good script selection skills. So when you combine him with a hot premise, people are willing to give him a chance.
David Mumpower: Neeson also has had an impressive body of work since the Star Wars prequel disaster. He's been the voice of Aslan, the bad guy in Batman Begins, and he was one of the brightest spots in Love Actually's several great story arcs.
It's a Brave New Super Bowl Sunday World
Kim Hollis: Do you feel that Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour and Taken have changed the playing field for Super Bowl weekend releases or do you see these as exceptions to the box office impediment of Super Bowl Sunday?
Max Braden: The Hannah Montana numbers indicate that counterprogramming for kids might work for Super Bowl weekend, but you wouldn't put your Cloverfield on this weekend. I think we'll still see cheap thrillers and comedies landing on the weekend with producers hoping to just get lucky.
Joel Corcoran: I think we're seeing a trend where movie marketing geniuses are figuring out how to squeeze movies into the spaces around Super Bowl Weekend. Films like Hannah Montana are great bargaining chips for kids ("Mom, if you and Dad are gonna watch the Super Bowl all day Sunday, can we at least go to the movies on Friday or Saturday?"), and there are plenty of people who aren't that interested in football. Or who aren't that interested in a particular Super Bowl. Finding those niche markets can lead to box office success, and make someone's marketing career, too.
Brandon Scott: I think new ideas are being explored but in the long run, the Super Bowl will always remain the chief attraction on the weekend, so I don't see counter-programming going by the wayside anytime soon. The fact that Liam Neeson is an older and respected actor made this opening work as opposed to putting Vin Diesel in the slot or someone younger (i.e. - a little more in tune with the SB demographic).
Jason Lee: Between the grosses for Taken and Hannah Montana 3-D, I think that the industry has finally woken up to the fact that there's money to be made on this weekend. No more "Sony wins the weekend by default with some schlocky picture," I honestly believe that Super Bowl weekend will be competitive over the next couple of years.
David Mumpower: I agree with Brandon that the Super Bowl is always going to be a factor. The last two years have had the highest number of viewers ever and when 95 million people are taken out of the equation, Sunday box office is automatically destroyed. That said, Friday and Sunday are still two strong days that should not be ceded, making this an intriguing landing spot for films studios know will be of the "one and done" variety.
Look, another horror movie
Kim Hollis: The Uninvited, the latest disposable horror project, managed only $10.3 million. What should Paramount take from this result?
Max Braden: They should take the result and be happy with it. I'm not sure they would have gotten more if Taken wasn't opening at the same time.
Joel Corcoran: I think Max put it best. The only thing I can add is: What the hell is David Strathairn doing in this movie? I wouldn't expect an actor with such a long and distinguished collection of great roles to be in such a throw-away movie. Someone like Gerard Butler, maybe, but not David Strathairn.
Brandon Scott: Was that a cheap shot at Gerard Butler? This is Sparta, Joel! He might get his Wild Bunch (RockNRolla) after you for such a statement. I was actually surprised to see Strathairn in there as well. I mean, he is John Sayles' muse after all. I think maybe this is a bit of horror burnout in recent weeks to be honest. I wouldn't mind inviting Elizabeth Banks to my house, for what it's worth.
Joel Corcoran: It wasn't intended as a cheap shot at all. I think Gerard Butler is a fine actor, but the length of his acting resume and breadth of the roles he's played is...well, to be polite, it's not as extensive as many other actors.
Scott Lumley: I'm not even sure The Uninvited even qualifies as a horror film. Shouldn't the commercials for a horror film be at least moderately scary?
Sean Collier: Not to deliver my 321st rant about how PG-13 horror is a fool's errand, but let's compare the results for My Bloody Valentine 3-D with these. Valentine didn't exactly knock it out of the park, but managed a much more respectable take, partially on gimmick and partially on its appeal as sort of a slasher throwback. Horror needs two things: some freakin' adult content and a gimmick. The Uninvited had neither, and thus floundered.
Jason Lee: Granted, I don't watch a lot of TV but I didn't see a single commercial for this film.
David Mumpower: Forget David Strathairn (whom I love) for a moment. What is Elizabeth Banks doing in this? She's been in six wide release movies in the last 12 months. I think it's time for her (or her agent) to learn how to say no to people. The Meet Daves and the The Uninviteds counteract all of the goodwill a Role Models creates.