In Contention: The Screen Actors Guild Awards
By Josh Spiegel
January 27, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Though a few new categories, such as Best Stunt Ensemble, have been added to the SAGs, and television dramas and comedies are honored along with films, there are really only five important categories for those film lovers curious about the connections between the SAGs and Oscars. Those categories are Best Actor and Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Actress, and Best Ensemble, the SAG version of Best Picture.
What's worth noting about the SAGs is how frequently they will honor the commercial success along with the critical success. Only a few years ago, Johnny Depp won the Best Actor award for his portrayal of Captain Jack Sparrow in Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl. Remember when that series wasn't overlong and ridiculous? Ah, the good days.
Of the major categories, the SAGs have come close, but never been perfectly matched with the winners at the Academy Awards in the past ten years. Some major misses were their 2006 Best Ensemble winner, Little Miss Sunshine; 2007's Best Supporting Actress winner, Ruby Dee for American Gangster; 2006's Best Supporting Actor winner, Paul Giamatti for Cinderella Man; and the 2005 Best Ensemble winner, Sideways. Poor Paul Giamatti...the Oscars will not give him an even break! Seriously, the point here is that it's more likely than not that the Oscars and SAGs will not see eye to eye with their eventual winners. Lucky for Giamatti that John Adams was never a movie, because you know he'd lose at the Oscars for that.
This year's Best Ensemble SAG Award has been given to, no surprise, Slumdog Millionaire. Despite not being shown any love in the separate acting categories, the SAG has fallen for this film, just like the Golden Globes and the Producer's Guild. At this point, it's highly unlikely (but not impossible) for this underdog to be stopped. In that case, doesn't that make this movie not an underdog anymore? I'm confused! The SAGs have predicted only six of ten Oscar winners for Best Picture in previous years, handing out awards to Gosford Park in early 2002 instead of the Oscar winner, A Beautiful Mind, and Traffic the year before instead of Gladiator. Still, it's worth noting that they picked Crash instead of Brokeback Mountain for Best Ensemble, and it's a rare occasion when the surprise pick worked out at the Oscars, too.
This year's Best Actor SAG Award went to Sean Penn as Harvey Milk in the Gus Van Sant biopic Milk. Though Mickey Rourke, in The Wrestler, is still the sentimental comeback choice, Penn is and has been the biggest competition, as they both appear to be leaving Frank Langella in the dust, despite his captivating performance as Richard Nixon in Frost/Nixon. Penn may very well be looking at a new Oscar in a few weeks' time. In this category, however, the SAGs have only gotten it right seven of ten times (seven of ten is the best the SAGs are at predicting the Oscars, actually; the actors have got to step it up!). Another miss between the SAGs and Oscars is with Benicio Del Toro, who won as lead in Traffic at the SAGs, but won Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars. That, of course, is rare and won't be repeated this year.
The Best Actress SAG winner is Meryl Streep, thankfully not for the execrable Mamma Mia!, but for her role as Sister Aloysius in Doubt. Though it may come as a surprise to some, as it leaves another double win for Kate Winslet in the dust along with another award for Anne Hathaway, Streep's status as the most prolific American actress of our time along with the Oscar snub of Winslet in Revolutionary Road lends this award some sense. Streep may still lose to Winslet for another film come February, but her chances have increased a lot here. As with Best Actor, though, the SAGs are only good for seven of ten Oscar winners, having missed out last year, when the Oscar went to Marion Cotillard for La Vie En Rose and the SAG Award went to Julie Christie for Away From Her. Another miss was when Renee Zellweger won for Chicago at the SAGs and Nicole Kidman (remember when these two women made successful films?) won for The Hours at the Oscars.
The Best Supporting Actor SAG winner is...you're not holding your breath for Robert Downey Jr., are you? I hope not, because this year's winner is, of course, Heath Ledger for his performance in The Dark Knight. Whatever major snubs The Dark Knight had at the Oscars, this one is about as close as there is to a sure thing. Ledger not only deserves it, but the universal success and praise of the film are doing plenty of favors for the role. Still, the SAGs are, it turns out, pretty bad at picking the Oscar winners here, getting only four of ten correct. They missed out with Giamatti with Cinderella Man. Most recently, the SAG Award went to Eddie Murphy for Dreamgirls, while the Oscar went to Alan Arkin for Little Miss Sunshine. Anne Hathaway, this year, will hopefully not learn Murphy's lesson: don't make movies like Norbit or Bride Wars, or no award for you!
The Best Supporting Actress SAG winner is Kate Winslet for her role as an ex-Nazi in The Reader, which has also slipped into the Oscar race. The Academy really does seem to love Harvey Weinstein movies, and movies about Nazis. Weird list of likes, but there you go. It's just about pointless to talk about Winslet's chances of winning for this role, because she's not been nominated for Supporting Actress at the Oscars, but as lead. Though there won't be an exact repeat of Del Toro's separate-category win in early 2001, Winslet has the best chance of doing so this year, not just because of the Academy's nominating her for this role as a lead, but the amount of momentum pushing her to victory. Personally, I'm glad, though it would be nice to see her nominated for Revolutionary Road instead of The Reader at the Oscars.