Snapshot: November 26-28, 1993
By Joel West
January 16, 2009
BoxOfficeProphets.com
The box office performance of a film these days is almost as important as the film's quality itself. As unfortunate as that may be, the facts are the facts. So while your movie maybe as good as It's a Wonderful Life, Citizen Kane, or even The Shawshank Redemption (all box office disappointments in their own right), if the marketing, release date, and apparent quality don't resonate with audiences, its commercial success could suffer. As with everything in history, time produces clarity. This column will take a look back at a specific time at the movies and try and determine the factors that led to a movie's success or failure.
Fifteen years ago, one actor had it all. He was respected by men and adored by women. However, when he agreed to star in the surest of bets, the rug was quite literally pulled out from under his career. And unfortunately, it has since never recovered.
A-list actors never stay on top forever, especially in today's movie market. Tom Cruise, Tom Hanks, Eddie Murphy, Bruce Willis, and Julia Roberts all dominated Hollywood during their careers. At one point, they each were pulling in outrageous sums of money to star in films and their salaries were (mostly) justified by the box office they were pulling in. However, as the 1990s ended, so went their drawing power. Audiences began focusing more on trends and franchises instead of just the movie star. While each of the aforementioned actors still incites interest, clearly their bottom line isn't what it once was. Cruise (2007's Lion for Lambs - $15 million), Murphy (2008's Meet Dave - $11 million), Willis (2007's Perfect Stranger - $23 million), Hanks and Roberts (both headlined 2007's Charlie Wilson's War - $66 million) were just not packing theater houses like they did in the '90s. They did, however, find ways to reinvent their careers and stay relevant. Seldom do you see an actor completely fall off the A-list; even Murphy and Sylvester Stallone found ways to get their films seen (Murphy sold out to the family-friendly crowd years ago and Stallone just keeps adding entries into his nostalgic franchises). Quite simply, no actor falls completely from commercial and critical significance.
That is, except Kevin Costner. And for whatever reason, there was one specific film that changed his career forever. And no, it wasn't Waterworld.
During a span of five years (1987-1992), there was not a hotter actor around than Kevin Costner. After bursting onto the scene in 1985's Silverado, Costner emerged as a leading man in the summer of 1987 with two critical and commercial successes. Starring as Elliot Ness in The Untouchables, Costner might have been overshadowed by master thespians Robert DeNiro and Sean Connery (who won his only Oscar for his role), but he was able to piggyback the film's success ($76 million) to leading man status. Later that summer, Costner had his first big test carrying a movie with No Way Out. While the film did only moderately well ($35.5 million), it proved that big things were ahead for Costner. Bull Durham ($50 million), Field of Dreams ($64 million), Dances with Wolves ($184 million), Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves ($165 million), JFK ($70 million), and The Bodyguard ($121 million) collectively elevated Costner to the A-list stratosphere. Costner even established credibility with 1990's Oscar-winning Dances with Wolves, which pre-release buzz had suggested would ruin his career. A Best Picture and Best Director Oscar (and some serious bank) signified Costner's era of dominance would be long-lasting. Costner even proved to be "untouchable" from the critics, as Robin Hood and The Bodyguard (both films were savaged by critics) had moviegoers lining up in droves.
On the eve of Tom Hanks dominance (1993's Philadelphia, 1994's Forrest Gump, 1995's Apollo 13...) through the 1990s, Costner's films virtually printed money and won multiple Oscars.
Clearly a smart customer, Costner felt the need to rebound from such harsh reviews by teaming up with the suddenly hot-again Clint Eastwood. Already a legend and an icon, Eastwood was coming off his first ever $100 million earners (1992's Unforgiven and 1993's In the Line of Fire). After picking up his first Best Director Oscar for Unforgiven, Eastwood was ready for his directorial follow-up and decided on pairing with the hottest actor around to ensure another blockbuster. In 1993, Costner agreed to star in Eastwood's A Perfect World. The premise was simple; Costner was an escaped con who kidnaps a young boy as Eastwood plays the Texas Ranger hot on his pursuit. It was such a sure thing with Costner and Eastwood attached (not to mention the cat-and-mouse premise had already succeeded in that summer's The Fugitive - $183 million) that A Perfect World was set to open during the movie-saturated week of Thanksgiving 1993.
The month of November is historically a busy time at the Cineplex, but, for whatever reason, this particular month in ‘93 had been underwhelming. The Three Musketeers ($54 million), Carlito's Way ($37 million), and Addams Family Values ($49 million) were not mirroring the box office returns that had been expected. However, the extended Wednesday-through-Sunday time period always yields at least one blockbuster. This year would be no different, especially with A Perfect World and Robin Williams' Mrs. Doubtfire set to open. The consensus was that families would likely flock to see Williams in drag, while older audiences would see the season's Oscar frontrunner.
Whereas families did see line up for Mrs. Doubtfire, it appeared that so did everyone else. Mrs. Doubtfire won the extended weekend with $27 million on its way to an astounding $219 million. Shockingly, A Perfect World didn't even come in second, as the underperforming Addams Family sequel had that honor. Nope, A Perfect World stalled in third place with only $11 million. Ouch! That is surprising even 15 years later. Likely attributed to its bleak subject matter for big opening numbers during a festive weekend, older audiences would most certainly help the film leg itself out through the holidays. Wrong again. A Perfect World quickly became a box office non-factor and ended with an embarrassing $31 million gross. The film did play well abroad, bringing in $101 million overseas, but clearly this result had to be seen as nothing short of disappointing.
How did this happen?
Along with the already sluggish November, there were several other potential causes at play; nevertheless, the film should have still finished stronger. With Costner's track record, reviews should not have been a factor. And they weren't. While not groundbreaking, critics felt the film was a solid pairing and even singled out Costner's understated performance as a highlight. Understated could have been another deficiency, as the film was more of a character study than a suspenseful, action heavy, crowd-pleaser. That doesn't, however, explain the lackluster opening, as the marketing was heavily pushing the film's leads as adversaries headed for a historic climax. Who wouldn't want to see a face-off between an icon of yesteryear and the box office star of the day? Arguments have been made that Costner didn't hit the publicity train as hard as he had in the past. Either stemming from rumored on-set feuding with Eastwood or hard at work on the next (1994) summer's potential blockbuster Wyatt Earp, Costner largely was absent from plugging this notable pairing. The only legitimate reason as to why this film failed was that audiences had finally grown weary of Costner, as his subsequent films later proved.
Costner, surprisingly, has never again starred in a genuine blockbuster. Hell, even moderate hits were hard to come by. The following year's Wyatt Earp ($25 million) and The War ($17 million) were outright flops, while 1995's legendarily expensive Waterworld ($88 million) surprisingly remains his highest grossing film since The Bodyguard (in all fairness, Waterworld did make $264 million worldwide to recoup and surpass its $175 price tag). His small-scale hits (1996's Tin Cup, 1999's Message in a Bottle, 2003's Open Range, and 2006's The Guardian) never even made more than $60 million domestically. While Costner displayed his flair for self-indulgence from time to time (see The Postman, Dragonfly), there were some gems that should have rebounded his career. Furthermore, if audiences had grown weary of movie star ego, then the late ‘90s never happened; what with actors pulling down $20 million a film.
For whatever reason, Costner just could never catch a break. Fans of his continue to wait patiently for his well deserved Pulp Fiction (John Travolta's comeback) or The Nutty Professor (Murphy's return to relevance). Instead, they continue to get 3000 Miles to Graceland ($15 million) and Swing Vote ($16 million) with the occasional The Upside of Anger ($18 million) and Mr. Brooks ($28 million) thrown in to appease his die-hards (oh yeah, we exist).
The Verdict: 1993's A Perfect World marked the specific point in Costner's career where he lost moviegoers, while Eastwood had no trouble shrugging off the film's uninspiring performance (have you seen this guy's resume recently?!). However, Costner's perseverance has been undaunted, as he, year in year out, churns out clunkers and under performers waiting for that one film to elevate him back to the A-list.
If Nic Cage and Travolta can have $100 million successes with crap like Ghost Rider and Wild Hogs, why not Costner?!
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