Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
December 30, 2008
BoxOfficeProphets.com
David Mumpower: Marley & Me, the Jennifer Aniston/Owen Wilson puppy love comedy, won the weekend with $37.0 million over the weekend and a record Christmas Day result of $14.7 million. Please explain this.
Joel Corcoran: Marley & Me seemed like it would be the "consensus choice" for holiday getaways this week and weekend. Bedtime Stories was probably a more popular choice for families with kids and teenagers, but Marley & Me had a snarky, more "adult" feel to it (even though both movies were rated PG). In a group setting, Marley & Me might not be anyone's top choice, but it's at least one of those movies where a lot of people are inclined to find it good enough to go along with. I think that is one important factor. Another is that Owen Wilson and Jennifer Anniston is a much better comedic duo than Adam Sandler and Keri Russell, which I guess we'll get to in a little bit.
Scott Lumley: I got nuthin'. The box office over the last two weekends has been completely bonkers and every film that I think looks like it should romp all over the box office has done the polar opposite of what I expected. If you told me that over the Christmas weekend Jennifer Aniston, Owen Wilson and a labrador retriever would be stomping all over the box office, I think I would have laughed pretty hard. My only guess here is that possibly the viewing public wanted something lighthearted and funny over the Christmas weekend and gave this one a shot as opposed to some of the films that headed off into other more extreme (Bedtime Stories, Seven Pounds, Yes Man...) or ridiculous (The Spirit) directions.
Sean Collier: The dog is the draw, I think. Anyone who's seen the gigantic puppy displays in a theater lobby over the last six months can testify that at least one person walks by cooing "Awwww, how adorable," every minute. In the words of Waylon Smithers, "People love dogs." And when you give them something seemingly more mature than Hotel For Dogs or Beverly Hills Chihuahua, they'll show up.
Reagen Sulewski: I'm not afraid to say I'm mystified by this. "Look! A dog misbehaves and does bad things! Let's go twice!" Unless it was that teaser trailer with Jennifer Aniston running in slo-mo for 100 minutes. Then I could understand that.
Daron Aldridge: I think a lot of people have tapped into this already by pointing out the "feel good" nature of the film. It's mindless fluff and appeals to people at the holidays. The legs are actually somewhat questionable to me because I have heard from more than one person that the PG rating was misleading because of the language for a movie clearly marketed toward kids with the puppy front and center. We'll see if I am the only one hearing that word-of-mouth.
Jamie Ruccio: A cute dog and Jennifer Aniston, who's been everywhere with puppies and nudity makes for this result. I agree with most everything that's been said previously. It was the right film for the adult holiday audience.
Pete Kilmer: I think this was totally aimed as the "feel good film" of the holidays and people were looking for something like it.
Kim Hollis: I believe I'm one of the few people who was completely *unsurprised* by this result. When you do puppy movies right, people will come. It's not a guarantee, but I think it's pretty easy to sniff out (hee hee) which ones have the formula for success. Snow Dogs, Eight Below and Beverly Hills Chihuahua all had that *something* that you could tell was going to lead to magic. Marley & Me trumps them all by A) Being based on a very popular memoir, B) Opening on Christmas and C) Having a labrador retriever as its star. They're one of the most popular dogs in America. People can relate to this story.
Either way, we're happy for both of their success.
David Mumpower: Do you attribute the success of Marley & Me to the star power of Owen Wilson or Jennifer Aniston to any degree?
Scott Lumley: Hey, don't forget the dog. He's a pretty cute dog. I heard Angelina Jolie called him twice already...
Joel Corcoran: I think the star power of Owen Wilson and Jennifer Aniston - individually and co-starring as a couple - lent quite a lot to Marley & Me's success. This type of goof-ball comedy is a typical film for Wilson, a role he does well, and one that movie-goers are used to seeing him in. Jennifer Aniston alone in this film would be enough for a big draw, but she's also a good choice to act opposite Wilson. She has the comedy chops to keep up with him, but also has a more serious presence to bring some breaks into the film and provide a better rhythm overall.
Showing up together in a movie opening opposite a few choices with completely different couples only boosts the Wilson/Aniston effect. Bedtime Stories has Adam Sandler and Keri Russell - Happy Gilmore and "that chick from Felicity". The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is portrayed as a movie focusing on Brad Pitt's character that has romantic dalliances with Cate Blanchett and Julia Ormond. It's not a film focusing on a "couple" per se, and while Brad Pitt is much more popular than Owen Wilson, it's just too strange a story compared to Marley & Me. And while Blanchett and Ormond are very serious, extremely talented actresses, neither holds a candle to Aniston in terms of sheer popularity.
Sean Collier: They seem like a fairly natural pair, and they're already semi-associated with one another under the Vince Vaughn's Co-Stars heading. I personally could do without either of them, but, you know, I'm not exactly the target audience for Marley & Me. I don't know how much either of them would be as the main draw - see Drillbit Taylor and Rumor Has It - but there's enough drawing power between the two of them to float a film, I think.
Daron Aldridge: Aniston has been on a media blitz with many interviews and press about her relationship with Brad Pitt. That kept her in the public consciousness long enough for the movie to open, so I think she was a bigger factor than Wilson. She seemed to be akin to Rachel from Friends, which probably helped. Also, apparently, the movie is based a somewhat well-known book (granted I didn't know about it). I think that also heightened the awareness.
Pete Kilmer: Jennifer Aniston (who I am HUGE fan of) is not a box office draw. She's proven that over the last few films she's tried to lead on her own. However, she is an outstanding utility player who can bring an "A" game against guys like Ben Stiller or Jim Carrey and can really support a project. I think she's going to have a much stronger career than Cameron Diaz, who dabbled in some of the same kind of movies that Jennifer has done. As for Owen Wilson, this was a smart, smart step after what happened to him awhile ago and I hope he gets the ball rolling for more projects.
Jamie Ruccio: I think Jennifer Anniston is the bigger draw. As has been mentioned, she's been on a media blitz for awhile regarding this movie. She's shrewdly manipulated the movie media by gently and subtly playing with the Brad Pitt/Angelina Jolie gossip stories, posing provocatively in a magazine or two. None of this is bad by the way as she's done yeomen service to bring the movie to the forefront of people's attention. But I agree with Joel that the casting with Owen Wilson helped as well. It's an easy role for him given that I suspect it's not far from his own personality. The pairing of them seems to work. And I'm only half kidding that the dog deserves some credit too.
Kim Hollis: As much as I love Owen Wilson (and I mean love. He's on my laminated list and has been for years), I'm not sure that either he or Aniston were the draw here. I think the puppy is the draw, plain and simple. With that said, I think that it was important to have recognizable, established stars as the leads. It wouldn't have gone over nearly as well with cheaper stars like Matthew Perry and Lisa Kudrow in that spot, to name a couple of different Friends who could have slipped into the roles.
Once upon a time, there was a boy named Adam...
Bedtime Stories, the Adam Sandler family flick from the good folks at Disney, finished in second place and has earned $38.6 million in its first four days. Is this a good enough result?
Joel Corcoran: My question is "Good enough for what?" Good enough for Disney to make a profit? Probably, though not necessarily on box office take alone, and maybe not a big enough profit to make Disney executives completely happy. Was it good enough to keep Adam Sandler around for a while longer? Unfortunately, yes. Sandler isn't as popular - or as funny - as he was six or seven years ago, but he'll keep limping along after Funny People comes out next year. Good enough to turn around an otherwise dismal December? Definitely not. Not in the slightest.
Scott Lumley: To me, Bedtime Stories seems closest to Night at the Museum, a film that didn't exactly start off like a rocket either. Bedtime Stories actually outgrossed NATM for the first weekend, although it took an extra day to do so. The kicker here is going to be if this film can show some legs and I think it can. It's a funny family movie and those kind of films always seem to do well long term. Despite the fact that this film did not take the number one spot, I still think we'll be talking about this film for a while, and it sure seems poised to do a lot better than Yes Man or Seven Pounds appear to be.
Eric Hughes: Because Bedtime Stories didn't exactly meet expectations (even our own Reagen predicted a weekend north of $50 million), I'd assume the comedy will exit theaters rather quickly. But then again, the next family film doesn't come around until Hotel for Dogs on January 16th. Bedtime Stories is basically all by itself over the next few weeks to make up some ground. Thank God Delgo bombed or this one would REALLY be in trouble. Crisis averted!
Scott Lumley: Hotel for Dogs, Beverly Hills Chihuahua, Marley & Me... is this the new tentpole release for Hollywood? Find a cute dog and a not very bright script then sit there and laugh heartily as the money pours in? This is three seriously produced and promoted dog films raising serious hell at the box office in less than six months. I don't think anybody saw or even imagined this happening. Nostradamus couldn't have predicted this stuff.
Eric Hughes: Even more troubling is that teasers and posters for Hotel for Dogs show at least a dozen dogs are in the pic. Multiply Marley & Me's $37-million weekend by 12 and you get...
Joel Corcoran: God help us all. We may have to bring out a Garfield sequel to combat this menace (and I hear Jennifer Love Hewitt is looking for work, anyway).
Reagen Sulewski: Obviously I was expecting a swap between this and Marley, but this isn't terrible, especially with the upcoming bonanza of a week ahead of us. I do think Night at the Museum is a pretty good analog here, and this could make a bit of a run post-holidays. The bigger question in my mind is if this represents the start of the Eddie-Murphyization of Sandler, where he does nothing but talk to animals and make poop jokes (OK, not much of a change, but with a different target) for the next five years.
Daron Aldridge: Yes, I think it could be good enough, especially if it sustains over the next week. I am not convinced that it can pull in Night at the Museum business, especially since that one was the number two movie of 2006. If it could duplicate Museum's mulitplier (5.9), which I doubt, then Bedtime Stories could end with $166 million but I don't see that Happening. See what I did there, since it's got a worse freshness rating than Shyamalan's movie.
Pete Kilmer: It's decent, but it's not really an Adam Sandler film, just as Night at the Museum isn't really a Ben Stiller movie. Both those projects are in the "family" section of each actor's resume of films. And that's not a bad thing at all. I think it might limp along and do well enough in the theaters so that when it hits On Demand and Redbox dvd rentals people will snatch it up.
Kim Hollis: If not for the surprise of Marley & Me, we'd be singing this one's praises. It wasn't that long ago - after the release of Don't Mess With the Zohan - that a number of us were positing right here in Monday Morning Quarterback that perhaps a turn to family films would be the right move for Sandler. And now we're going to gripe about an almost $40 million during holiday season when big numbers are sure to follow in the coming days? This is going to be a solid little family flick - and frankly, the reviews for this type of thing don't really matter terribly much.