Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
December 9, 2008
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Cadillac Records, a film once considered an awards season contender, was exhibited in only 686 locations the weekend after Thanksgiving. Why do you think Sony dumped it there and what do you take from its $3.5 million total?
Brandon Scott: Sony knew they didn't have a hit on their hands as it has been sitting around for a bit. I read that they were just trying to cash in and get whatever they could get. The trailers and everything about this read as "standard biopic type" film. Many potentially good actors are involved. I think Jeffrey Wright is highly under-appreciated, but unlike other biopics where they have focused on some bigger names (see Ray or Walk The Line), this was kind of a grouped effort where the artists weren't as featured. Obviously, something was missed here, whether it was how to market it, or what the focus of the script or film should be...something was just off. (And allow me to say, Mos Def is a solid MC as a rapper, but as an actor he is difficult to watch. His voice just annoys, so I have no desire to see him as Chuck Berry...Sorry Mos.)
David Mumpower: I'm actually a big fan of Mos Def as an actor. I loved him in three different films: The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, The Italian Job and (particularly) Brown Sugar. I also thought this was a great idea for a movie when I first heard it, but the instant it got slotted here, I knew it was screwed. In point of fact, this result is better than worst case scenario. It reflects an acceptable per-venue average north of $5,000. Maybe there was justification for a larger amount of exhibitions for Sony, but they made their call. This one will be lucky to do $10 million domestic. At this point, what is left is the hope that Beyonce Knowles (I'm not calling her that other name) gets mentioned on more end-of-year awards lists than the relatively inconsequential Golden Satellites nod she received last week. And even that goal is probably ambitious.
Max Braden: Despite the traditionally dead weekend, I don't feel like Cadillac Records was "dumped" here. I've seen plenty of ads for it and have heard Jeffrey Wright doing press for it. Dreamgirls was released on December 15th on just three screens before going to 850 after Christmas and then wide in the middle of January, so I'd guess that the strategy here was to hope press would drum up award buzz and then see how audiences responded. The response has been lukewarm, possibly because the musicians here aren't as prominent as Ray Charles or Johnny Cash and not riding the wave of a successful Broadway show. I don't see how changing the details of release would have changed its chances at higher returns or award chances. Some Oscar bait movies just don't take hold. That's how it goes.
David Mumpower: Two weeks matters a ton in this specific instance. The only week after Thanksgiving movie to do well was Behind Enemy Lines and every major distributor knows this. They don't put quality releases out on this particular weekend, and that becomes self-fulfilling prophecy about the weekend's performances to an extent. Even if this were not the case, however, it's just common sense that if a studio truly believes in a project, putting it out the week after Thanksgiving is a poor strategy. Consumers have ample free time to see the movie the week before. Alternately, if a title is pushed those key couple of weeks you don't see as that big a deal, the release is suddenly in the Twelve Days of Box Office range and will have a lot of mini-Friday days of revenue. In this specific instance, we know that there wasn't much faith in Cadillac Records by the venue count. A small-ish release of less than 50 would be indicative of a platformed growth pattern to build awareness. A full scale release of 1,800+ would be an ordinary release pattern for such a title. 686 exhibitions is No Man's Land.
All of the box office draws raise your hand. Not so fast, Dane Cook.
Kim Hollis: We casually touched upon the subject of box office draws last week. In the lull before the December box office storm, let's address the issue more fully. Other than the more obvious names like Will Smith, Tom Hanks and Johnny Depp, who are some people you consider to be respectable box office draws, and why? Conversely, who are some people you would argue are not box office draws despite their established celebrity?
Brandon Scott: I think in order to discuss this appropriately, we would need to establish what constitutes a draw. Is it someone that can open a movie on name alone? Is it someone who consistently has films end up with box office $50 million or more? Is it a star having his/her films consistently out earn the budget? By a certain percentage? I only lay it out like this because I don't think there is any sure-fire bankable draw outside of Will Smith (though Seven Pounds will again test his power). I think someone like Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie for example is a draw but to what extent? Jolie couldn't bring Changeling to big success. Pitt consistently has box office failures (in my mind). Troy, Jesse James and Burn After Reading all had Pitt but none saw great success (again relative to certain questions I asked above). His voice didn't aid Sinbad to great heights. And for Jolie we jave Sky Captain, A Mighty Heart, Alexander and The Good Shepherd? These are not hits, but they both get the big dollars and they are both undoubtedly A-List "stars" of the highest magnitude. I think the draw question needs to be more clearly defined in order to give specific answers, but those two always come to mind when I ponder this sort of question.
David Mumpower: When I think of box office draws, I envision the description as the types of people whom audiences are naturally inclined to give the benefit of the doubt. In addition to the names Kim mentioned, Adam Sandler is another obvious call. A good example by my definition, one I referenced recently, is Keanu Reeves. I believe his presence directly aids the box office of his projects. Meanwhile, I agree with the assessment that Brad Pitt misses badly as often as not, which makes him a poor qualifier; however, I disagree on Jolie. I see Changeling's $34.7 million as a remarkable showing for such a depressing subject matter and that follows on the heels of Wanted's mega-blockbuster success ($340 million worldwide). The other actor I am certain is overrated is Nic Cage, who seems hellbent on having a career as schizo as he is. Among women, I also believe Reese Witherspoon is again demonstrating she qualifies. Another odd choice is Matthew McConaughey, who has had success on five out of his last eight projects. That's a pretty good track record. Brendan Fraser is in that same boat and I would put Samuel Jackson in there if he could develop the ability to occasionally say no to a project. Shia LaBeouf is someone who isn't there yet, but he appears headed in that direction and the same could be said of James McAvoy, although I'm inclined to believe his is coincidence more than anything thus far.
The particularly interesting scenario in 2011 is what the world thinks of Daniel Radcliffe. Is he just Harry Potter or is he the A-List actor who has already starred in eight $200+ million movies by his 22nd birthday?
Scott Lumley: I'd say any list that tries to identify box office kings has to have Morgan Freeman on it. The American public would probably line up to hear that man read the Microsoft EULA. I'm willing to bet the March of the Penguins would never have had one tenth of the success it had if it had been narrated by Jack Black. We should probably give a nod to Christian Bale at this point and I'm pretty sure that Robert Downey Jr. should probably be on that list as well.
There are a couple of other names that jump out at me but they are all male. Matt Damon, George Clooney, Will Smith... Am I a chauvinist or am I just missing some obvious female talent?
Max Braden: I tend to think of leading actors in two categories: the ones who can get a movie into wide release without an effects-driven plot, and the box office draws who can open a movie at or over $25 million to $30 million with the chance at a $100 million gross. Pitt is one who hasn't been much of a draw without Danny Ocean, but I think that has a lot to do with the types of projects he's chosen, too. Nic Cage is conversely one I'd say has lucked out because of the projects he's been in. Ben Stiller and Kevin Costner I think are both reliable draws because they limit their range, so the product is familiar. I think Pitt's female counterpart in that regard is Charlize Theron, and Cage's is Cameron Diaz. The Stiller and Costner females might be Kate Hudson and Sandra Bullock. I think of Claire Danes as being on the cusp.
Radcliffe is likely to have the same fate as Maccaulay Culkin but that may suit Radcliffe because he seems to have more artistic taste.
Sean Collier: I'd agree with Clooney, but it's not automatic. If it weren't for Zack and Miri, I'd say that Seth Rogen was one of the most bankable young names, and I might say the same for Michael Cera. Angelina Jolie jumps to mind, but she has had a number of misses. Harrison Ford is almost always worth $100 million or more. If you had asked me ten years ago, I would've sworn by Robin Williams, but then...well, Death to Smoochy, The Night Listener, Man of the Year, and License to Wed, to name a few. I still think that he'll bounce back into instant money once he gets a new agent.
I want to be a Yes Man.
Kim Hollis: Our staff's forecasts for the month of December indicate that this month's expected heavyweights are Yes Man, Bedtime Stories, The Day the Earth Stood Still, Seven Pounds and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. How would you personally rank these films, and is there something outside of this group you believe could be one of the top December releases?
Brandon Scott: I think Despereaux and Gran Torino might surprise. I think the Despereaux trailer is not half bad (yes, this is lavish praise for an animated film from me) and Torino not only has a good trailer, but a Best Actor in Eastwood now with his recent win from the National Board of Review. I think that Despereaux has the chance to catch some holiday traffic as one of the only animated films in the marketplace over the Christmas frame. Similarly, I think Torino has the potential to appeal to broad audiences from older adults on down. Seeing Clint as an actor for the first time in a while and re-thinking his Dirty Harry persona excites me and I think it could translate to exciting some audiences as well. Do I think it will surpass some of the other films mentioned? Perhaps. I think Button is going to underperform. I was really high on this film earlier in the year but I am already waning on it. It's long and critically not quite where I thought it might be at this early juncture. I am pulling for Fincher but I kind of see a possible letdown there.
Scott Lumley: Yes Man looks like a pure Jim Carrey comedy and those are always killer. The Day the Earth Stood Still looks tempting to me but I'm terribly afraid it's going to suck. Bedtime Stories has potential to break out as well.
But out of everything on that list, I think Yes Man is the biggest hit. I'm really looking forward to that one.
Sean Collier: Bedtime Stories is going to pull in crazy money, and will be the easy pick for just about every family movie night for a month or so. Yes Man will probably do quite well, but isn't going to set the world on fire. I'm also looking for Benjamin Button to underperform. I'm very interested to see what Milk does this weekend, but it can only go so high. I'm going to go out on a limb, though, and put the upset special collar on Marley and Me.
Max Braden: I've now seen Benjamin Button and would briefly describe it as Legends of the Fall meets Forrest Gump as written by Nicholas Sparks. Seven Pounds doesn't stand a chance against it in my mind and I think with most audiences, despite Will Smith's power status. I'm only moderately interested in Carrey's repeat of Liar, Liar, and I doubt The Day the Earth Stood Still will be memorable. The trailer that is charming me the most is Despereaux, and I could see that being the top December release if Sandler weren't such a lock. I just wish The Wrestler would be embraced by wide audiences.