2008 Awards Tracking: Introduction
By David Mumpower
December 9, 2008
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Concurrently with this column, we are posting the first results from our annual Oscars Tracking section. Those of you who have been with us since the beginning (bless your loyal hearts) will notice some changes. First and foremost, we are now ranking films based upon how we view their candidacy. No longer are we preventing titles from being listed until they have been officially released into theaters. The shortened awards season renders such behavior a bit silly if not out and out anal. Instead, what we have chosen to do is list the contenders based upon how we evaluate their current status. Since this is new behavior for BOP, I'll explain in a bit more detail using a few examples.
In March of 2008, none of us would have considered Mickey Rourke a contender for Best Actor? Why? Unlike Mr. Rourke, we were sober the body of that month. Had there been power rankings posted for 2009 during this period, he would have been unlisted. Much has changed in the past few months; The Wrestler was the darling of the Venice Film Festival, reminding people that Rourke was once considered the next Pacino. A current power ranking of the major contenders for Best Actor would be remiss to ignore him.
Conversely, a project such as Australia would have been at or near the top of the Best Picture rankings. Nicole Kidman and Baz Lurhmann had previously created an epic musical in Moulin Rouge! that had captivated the body of our staff. That title won a pair of Academy Awards and was nominated in a total of eight categories. A reunion of the star and director with the addition of Wolverine in place of Obi-Wan Kenobi appeared to be a heavyweight combination for end-of-years contention. Today, we know better. Australia's box office is disastrous not just here but in the titular country as well. Critics are on the fence about the project with the split about 50/50 currently on Rotten Tomatoes as well as MetaCritic. Even the people who like the film are marginal about it, indicating the film lacks the passion required to be a serious Best Picture contender. Just a couple of months ago, Australia would have been in the top five in the power rankings. Today, it's unranked and it's almost certain to never be mentioned again this awards season, at least in the Best Picture category.
In terms of what is and is not listed, a seemingly annual tradition here at BOP has been to state that no major contenders have stood out from early in the year. Crash is the only notable exception to this, really, but 2008 is a bit different. There are a couple of summer blockbusters that made $200-$535 million that have not yet been eliminated from competition in the Best Picture category. We kept waiting for some quality titles to push WALL·E and The Dark Knight out of the collective consciousness, but that hasn't happened yet. Both of them are dark horse contenders for a nod in the most important category, which is a bit surprising. In addition, WALL·E seems like a foregone conclusion to win the coveted Best Animated Feature award, while Heath Ledger posthumously borders on being a mortal lock in the Best Supporting Actor category. Do not underestimate either project's lasting appeal to voters within the Academy.
Meanwhile, some categories have yet to wow us with their contenders. Best Supporting Actress and Best Adapted Screenplay in particular are power rankings wherein we struggled to even fill out the bottom of the list. At this stage of the year and with all potential releases in contention, that's pretty shocking. Of course, this situation may change over the next few weeks as the various end-of-year awards results filter in. If so, our power rankings will be updated to reflect the new contenders. This is what we like about the new system. It will afford our readers the opportunity to look back at our earlier rankings to see just how much changes between the start of December and the end of February.
2008 Oscar Tracking