Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
September 3, 2008
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Tropic Thunder earned $14.3 million over the long holiday weekend and is now up to $86 million. This is the third straight weekend we have asked this question, but are you ready to call it a hit yet?
Pete Kilmer: I'm really hoping it's the 'movie that could'. It needs five more weekends like that!
David Mumpower: Tropic Thunder won't be profitable domestically when it exits theaters. I am ready to call it a hit despite this. Three straight weekends at number one is always a positive, even when the weeks are as weak as the most recent two. Unlike Disaster Movie, this is a title that is going to clean up on home video and other ancillary markets.
Daron Aldrige: I stand by my earlier conclusion, that it is a success if the budget is really $90 million.
Brandon Scott: I'm not ready to say it's a success until it gets to the $120 million range as we talked about but I think it's showing that it may indeed do that. Three weeks is three weeks, regardless of the time of year. Looks like the Olympics' call as a box office disruption to Tropic's start was accurate here. If it makes it to eight straight golds, then we have a storyline to rival Phelps' run.
Scott Lumley: I think this qualifies as a hit. Three weeks at the top, plus being the movie that knocked off the Dark Knight will give it a fair bit of notoriety. It's definitely going to hit at least $100 million now and $125 isn't out of reach. This plus DVD and the worldwide numbers will make it marginally profitable and that's all any film needs to be. I'm a little confused as to why this cost as much as it did, but I guess we have to chalk that up to some fairly big paychecks.
Jason Lee: Assuming it creeps over the $100 mil mark (which looks like a near certainty at this point), it will have made four times its opening weekend. That's a hit in my book.
Batman Batman Batman Batman Batman Batman Batman. Batman.
Kim Hollis: The Dark Knight became the second film ever to cross $500 million. I realize some of you feel as though we've talked about this to death, but do any of you have something else you'd like to say about The Dark Knight before it exits theaters?
Pete Kilmer: It's great that it's hitting $500 million, but let's push on to $600 million!
Okay, that ain't happening....but it was nice to see a movie become a cultural phenom that mainstream audiences could get into. Now if only Jeff Robinov could understand why the movie REALLY worked I would be a lot more hopeful about future DC Comics/Time Warner super hero projects. And Johnny Depp over the weekend said he wouldn't mind playing The Riddler. Think on that Warner Bros.
Marty Doskins: Quickly going back to the "Heath Ledger effect", his death had an impact on my family wanting to see the movie. We hadn't seen Batman Begins and I don't think we would have seen this film (even though I do like comic movies, in general). My daughter became obsessed with seeing all Heath Ledger movies so she insisted that we had to see this one. I'm glad she dragged us out to the theater. It was a good movie and Ledger's portrayal was very intriguing. My kids had seen the first four Batman movies and found interesting aspects to each Joker character. They seemed to like Ledger's Joker more since he seemed more like a real person than Nicholson's cartoony version.
Max Braden: I don't want to say "overrated" but I'm still looking forward to Iron Man 2 more than Baleman 3.
Marty Doskins: This was my first exposure to Bale as Batman and I think what bothered me was the over-the-top voice change when he was Batman. It was quite distracting during those scenes.
David Mumpower: I'm not a fan of the gruff Batman voice, either, but I think that's a direct lift from the comics. As for the box office performance of this film, it's the biggest ticket seller of the 2000s. Being the top film of a decade is an accomplishment whose magnificence speaks for itself.
Jason Lee: I tend to be the snarky, back-of-the-classroom kid throwing out snide one-liners at underperforming box-office duds during MMQB, but if I might take this one opportunity for a moment of sincerity, let me just say that all too often, spectacular films garner less-than-spectacular theatrical grosses. From my perspective, this is that rare occurrence when a phenomenal film of the highest quality is rewarded with a blockbuster-esque box-office cume. I couldn't be happier to see something like this happen.
Sean Collier: Well, the "fanboy push" isn't going to make it to $600 million. I keep hearing speculation about an Oscar season re-release, though. Obviously, it's questionable whether a re-release - with only a four month delay - can generate an additional $70 to $80 million, but that seems like another record The Dark Knight would love to break. Just so that we can keep perspective, though, remember that The Dark Knight is still yet to crack the inflation-adjusted top ten. Forrest Gump asks "why so serious?"
Daron Aldrige: Way to go North America for shunning Disaster Movie and pushing The Dark Knight over yet another box office threshold. If only there was enough steam left it in for another $100 million, which sadly there isn't.
Brandon Scott: I'll pass on additional comment here. I think the bloggers have this covered.
Scott Lumley: I for one would like to welcome our new Dark Knight overlords. I will also be astonished if Heath Ledger doesn't get a posthumous Oscar.
Their mistake was in thinking people would come see a movie about this when it's much, much easier to just go out and have actual collegiate experiences.
Kim Hollis: College opened to a woeful $2.6 million in four days and had a weekend per venue average of $997. Say something funny about College.
Pete Kilmer: I bet they wished they had Tom Green in the film.
Max Braden: College gets an F in pulling in the Superbad crowd.
David Mumpower: In this case, the "freshman 15" represents the average number of tickets sold per exhibition.
Daron Aldrige: Wow, a venue average of less than a $1,000. That wouldn't be enough to cover six credit hours at a state school. This performance reminds of another time we saw a kid show star venture into more adult/crude role, like Josh Drake did here, in the form of Saved by the Bell's Elizabeth Berkley shedding her clothes and dignity in Showgirls.
Brandon Scott: This film definitely won't graduate but I am also not asking for any more semesters of this failing garbage.
Scott Lumley: $2.6 million? Wow. That's Pauly Shore territory.
Jason Lee: The American educational system must be in shambles if we, as a nation, were stupid enough to spend $2.6 mil on College.
Alas, poor Coogan. I knew him well.
Kim Hollis: Hamlet 2 had its first wide weekend with $2.1 million over four days, while its per venue average was $1,064. Say something funny about Hamlet 2.
Reagen Sulewski: To see, or not to see, that is the question... and the answer is "no".
David Mumpower: It's like that reply came out of a holster at high noon.
Reagen Sulewski: I already have three offers from the E! network from that.
Tim Briody: That's actually kind of disappointing considering the trailer kills. I had "Rock Me Sexy Jesus" stuck in my head for days after doing the writeup for the film.
Max Braden: Steve Coogan won me over with this movie. If he wants to do a Hot Fuzz-like parody, I'll be at the box office. I may be the only one on line, but I'll be there.
David Mumpower: Its investors should have followed the sage advice of Polonius, "Neither a borrower nor a lender be: For loan oft loses both itself and friend." How fitting that Hamlet 2 is a box office tragedy.
Sean Collier: "Out, out brief candle! [The theatrical run of a tough-to-market indie comedy]'s but a walking shadow, a poor player that struts and frets his hour upon the stage and then is heard no more; it is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." That's Macbeth V.v. I'm Sean Collier, and I'm the token theater guy. Thank you very much.
Daron Aldrige: Steve Coogan has got to be an emotional wreck this week. Two movies in theaters with one audiences want to see (Tropic Thunder) and one audiences wouldn't give CPR to on the side of the road. But at least Hamlet 2 beat College's venue average. Granted it was by less than $100 but a victory is a victory.
Brandon Scott: I'm laughing at the one person I know who saw this. Shakespeare would be pissed.
Scott Lumley: The Bard must be plotting steely-eyed vengeance for this abomination, but they're probably going to save that for the third movie.
Jason Lee: The American educational system must be in shambles if we, as a nation, thought that Hamlet would return from the dead with Jesus. Hamlet, the character, studied in Wittenberg, which clearly makes him an early Protestant and would have likely brought back Martin Luther, not Jesus. So there, nyah!