Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
August 26, 2008
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: The Rocker opened to $2.6 million. Say something funny about The Rocker.
Reagen Sulewski: Rainn Wilson's leading man career is living on a prayer.
Max Braden: The studio could have easily hit the $3 million mark if they had titled it The Rock Bander.
Pete Kilmer: ...
Kim Hollis: Somewhere, Jim Halpert is laughing his ass off.
Brandon Scott: The trailer I saw looked decent but I never had any real interest in the film and apparently neither did many others. Rainn should have thrown his money in the air and "made it rain" rather than banging the drum loudly. Stuck in the wrong chord, it was a decent concept, poor execution I guess.
Jason Lee: The Rocker is less funny than your average Weird Al song and about 25 times longer in duration.
Sean Collier: The Love Guru is the bomb of the summer. Oh, wait, Meet Dave is the bomb of the summer. Whoops, X-Files is the bomb of the summer. Wait - wait - The Rocker opened in 12th? We have a new champion!
Daron Aldridge: I got nothing. Just shaking my head at how Rainn Wilson spent his Office hiatus.
Scott Lumley: I think more people may have paid to see the Office than the Rocker. Oh wait, the Office is on free cable, isn't it? Never mind, I stand by my statement.
David Mumpower: The Rocker is no The Pianist.
Thunder! Ah ah ah ah ah ahhhh!
Kim Hollis: Tropic Thunder fell 38% to $16.3 million. It has a running total of $65.8 million against in excess of $100 million. How much money does this movie need to make domestically for you to consider it a hit?
Reagen Sulewski: I don't think it can get up to where I expected to, but if it manages about $125 million, that's a very satisfying number. There's not much getting around that troublingly high budget number though.
Max Braden: It had better hit $100 million or I may start hitting random people in the face. This is a funny movie, people! You need this right now, with vacation ending and school starting! Go see it so I can see the sequel! And if not for me, think of yourselves: All those post-Iron Man offers on Robert Downey Jr.'s plate are going to dry up if Thunder's numbers resonate. The movie industry needs more Downey right now.
Tim Briody: It cost that much? Yikes. $100 million domestically is a solid figure, but it's got some work to do to make it that far. After that, DVD sales will be plentiful.
Pete Kilmer: I think it needs $140 million to be considered a hit. I'm shocked at the lack of advertising I saw during the second week. They really should have bought ads during the Olympics. Maybe they did and I missed them.
Kim Hollis: I'd like to see it wind up with $100 million. It's definitely going to find a major audience on DVD, but I do think it's important for it to at least equal its budget if at all possible.
Scott Lumley: It's going to need to hit the magic $100 million mark. That plus the overseas sales plus the DVD's should keep someone from taking out a contract on Ben Stiller. This is actually a really funny and smart film, so I hope that it does what it needs to do.
Brandon Scott: If it were to take in $120 million, I would call it a hit with a production budget at $92 million, but it's not getting much past $100-105 million it appears. For all the hype surrounding the film, its current box office total is a letdown. It was gunned down early by NBC's Olympic coverage early but it held up pretty well this week all things considered.
Daron Aldridge: I think that $100 million would be a success if the budget truly is $90 million as reported. But with the oft mentioned starpower of the film, I think I am in the minority. Everyone just expected a bigger splash on opening weekend. It is probably as successful as any film about Hollywood is ever going to be given that genre's weak box office history.
David Mumpower: Why is Max talking about fabric softeners? Anyway, I think it's going to do well enough on video to absorb the inevitable loss in theaters, but I agree that the amount of money needed is in the $125 million range. It's not getting there.
Jason Lee: Honestly, if it even creeps close to that $100 mil mark then I think you have to consider it a success. In this day and age, box-office legs almost impress me more than a big opening weekend.
Schadenfreude feels so so good.
Kim Hollis: Star Wars: The Clone Wars earned $5.7 million while falling 61%. It has a running total of $25 million. Do they need JJ Abrams to come in and reinvigorate the franchise?
Reagen Sulewski: Dear George Lucas - Ha Haw! I really never quite expected Star Wars fanboys to wake up this much, but it appears they only have to be burned three or four times.
Max Braden: I would pay to see Robert Downey Jr. as Han Solo in Star Wars: Bounty Hunters. Trust me, this is a good idea.
Pete Kilmer: They made it for kids. Stupid kids. They took everything that made the Genndy Tartakovsky Star Wars cartoon a terrific show and totally ignored it and flushed it out the airlock. Granted this thing is a hit considering it was due for TV.
Kim Hollis: I disagree, Pete. I think you have to qualify your definition of hit here. No Star Wars movie released into theaters should theoretically do this poorly. An eventual grand total of around $35 million is simply pathetic. The one thing I will agree with is the fact that if all these fans follow the show to TV, it's actually going to have good ratings for a cable program.
Pete Kilmer: Kim, I think the only thing I disagree with you is that this was never intended as a Star Wars "movie". From what I understand, these were the first three episodes of the upcoming TV show and Lucas liked what he saw and decided to put it in the theater. This was not intended for the theaters initially. The box office it's made (minus advertising) is basically free money for Lucasfilm.
Daron Aldridge: JJ Abrams is too smart and talented to go near this one. Lucas should have just left it alone. I wonder how this affects the plans for the supposed series. Obviously, the demand is not there. Even for free at home in the comfort of my living room, I don't see myself tuning in for this.
Sean Collier: No. They need JJ Abrams to make a movie titled Cloverfield 2: Wherein The Cloverfield Monster Eats George Lucas, Over and Over Again, In Every Scene.
Scott Lumley: I think the more important question is how do you screw up a Star Wars film in the first place? Congratulations George, you've taken a franchise that was practically a license to print money and completely cocked it up.
Brandon Scott: As far as I am concerned this franchise died in 1983. I never wanted to see it come back. If you are speaking of the Clone Wars as animation, another strong "no reinvigoration necessary." This is a film that I couldn't care less about and George Lucas has long since burned up the goodwill he earned for those films that go back starting 30 years ago. The ultimate myopian.
David Mumpower: I think the biggest sign of Lucas' failure is that Star Wars nerds have stopped emailing BOP regarding their outrage over our outlook on the quality of the films from 1999-to-today. Even the ones with light saber tattoos on their scrota know the truth.
Jason Lee: I'd rather see George Lucas direct The House Bunny 2.