Hindsight: Titanic Part II
By Daron Aldridge
August 20, 2008
BoxOfficeProphets.com
The 12th weekend arrives and as you might guess, the story sounds familiar with another small decline (10.3%), another number one spot and another sizable stack of bills hauled off to Paramount's vaults. To avoid diminishing this feat, remember that Titanic had already been in theaters for almost three months and still made $17.6 million ($26.6 adjusted).
As if the public's thirst for Leonardo DiCaprio wasn't satisfied with months of his romance with Kate Winslet, The Man in the Iron Mask opened in Titanic's 13th weekend. For the brief time between the release of the weekend estimates and the actuals, it looked as if the only person to dethrone "King of the World" Jack Dawson was, well, himself. However, this was not the case when the final figures were released. Titanic narrowly secured another victory by bringing in $17.6 million ($26.6 adjusted), which was only $300,000 more than The Man in the Iron Mask's take.
Pulling the victory out by its smallest margin of its run wasn't the only cause of celebration. Much to the chagrin of Star Wars fans everywhere, this weekend was the end of Star Wars short tenure back at the top of the all-time domestic grossers. With $471.4 million, Titanic claimed the top spot and hasn't ceded it yet.
Weekend 14 saw Titanic dip 2.9% to $17.1 million ($25.8 adjusted) and put it within spitting distance of $500 million. On the Thursday before its 15th weekend (its 98th day of release), Titanic eased past that once-impossible mark. That next weekend added another $15.2 million ($22.9 adjusted) down 11.4%. At this point, it appeared to be showing the signs of fatigue, which is understandable because it was essentially in the midst of the box office equivalent to the Boston Marathon.
For the first time since before Christmas 1997, Titanic was evicted from its permanent place of residence at the top of the weekly box office. The masterpiece that accomplished this feat was Lost in Space, which apart being a footnote in Titanic's storied history, was utterly forgettable. It took 16 weekends for a film to wrest control of the top spot. Additionally, Titanic's $11.5 million ($17.4 adjusted) was its first time to earn less than half its opening weekend total of $28.6 million.
Over the next ten weekends, it remained in the top ten, sustained declines of less than 34% until after Memorial Day and chugged along to day 252 when it reached the improbable goal of $600 million. Make sure you are sitting down for this. When adjusted for inflation, its domestic gross of $600.8 million equals $907 million. Unbelievable seems to be the best word to describe it.
While the payoff was enormous, the risk was also high. Titanic's $200 million budget would still be huge today adjusted for inflation. It would have a $265.3 million price tag and continue to rank as one of the most expensive productions for a single movie ever.
Here are few points to put its longevity and sheer magnitude into perspective:
Titanic earned $600.8 million when it was all said and done after nine full months in theaters.
It was number one for 15 weekends in a row.
It had 16 straight weekends of $10+ million grosses. In order for The Dark Knight to match that, it would need to earn eight figures every weekend until October 24th, which seems utterly impossible these days.
Five weekends out-grossed its opening total of $28.6 million, including weekends two through five;
It didn't experience a weekend-to-weekend decline of more than 40% until its 14th weekend and had multiple weekend increases, including 23.8% its second weekend.
Its biggest day of box office was only $13.6 million as opposed to The Dark Knight's $67.2 million. However, Titanic earned $13.6 million on December 27, 1997, its ninth day of release. Its second biggest day of box office was $13.1 million on Valentine's Day of 1998, a day that presumably came roughly nine months before the biggest spike in teen pregnancy in recorded history. Maybe that's what Cameron meant with his "King of the World" proclamation since he was helping encourage the repopulation movement. There were 49 days between the film's biggest day of box office and its second biggest day. Imagine The Dark Knight having a $50 million day over the Labor Day holiday to understand the full impact of this. On second thought, don't try to envision that because you might give yourself an aneurysm.
Titanic finished in first place every day from December 19, 1997 to March 5, 1998. For 77 consecutive days, it was the most popular film in North America. The vast majority of films today don't even stay in theaters for 77 days, especially at number one. Then, it went on to be the number one film again for 20 out of the next 28 days. As of Tuesday, August 12, 2008, this second streak almost matches The Dark Knight's performance of being number one on 21 out of 26 days in release, which is spectacular. Yet, Titanic achieved this after over 100 days in release.
Titanic didn't fall out of the top three on any single day of box office until April 12, 1998, its 115th day in theaters. Additionally, it wouldn't fall out of the top five until April 26, 1998, its 129th day in theaters. And it didn't fall out of the top ten on a single day until May 29, 1998, its 162nd day in release.
Titanic still had a per screen average of more than $1,000 until its 30th weekend in release.
Among 1998 films released during its reign at the top, only The Wedding Singer ($80.2 million), U.S. Marshals ($57.8 million), The Man in the Iron Mask ($57.0 million), Primary Colors ($39.0 million) and Sphere ($37.1 million) earned more than $30 million. The next biggest performers were Wild Things (wink, wink, nudge, nudge) and – shudder to think – Spiceworld. To summarize, only five out of 30 major studio releases earned in excess of $30 million, while Titanic accrued domestic receipts of $515.3 million, a full $54 million more than any title had ever earned before. It wasn't the biggest fish in a small pond. It was the only fish in the pond because it had eaten all the other fish.
As if all these feats weren't impressive enough, there's a cherry on top of this sundae. The movie had a final multiplier (total domestic box office divided by opening weekend gross) of 20.98. If The Dark Knight performed in a similar fashion, it would earn $3.323 billion domestically. You read that correctly, a $3.323 billion domestic gross.
But wait, we can blow your mind even more than that. If X-Files: I Want to Believe showed that sort of staying power, it would earn $210.3 million. Still not impressed? If Meet Dave, one of the dregs of summer, had a 20.98 final multiplier, it would be a $100 million performer with roughly $10.2 million to spare. Of course, this is approximately a factor of 8 more than it will actually earn, but it effectively demonstrates how a final multiplier of just under 21 can make even the worst of opening weekends grow into a stunning box office performance. All the film needs is a bunch of weekends in a row that surpass its opening weekend total. No problem in 2008, right?
While studios have unsuccessfully tried to duplicate the story/genre formula (i.e. Pearl Harbor), until The Dark Knight, no one has even threatened Star Wars' second place total of $461 million, let alone approach the $500 million mark. Despite your disdain, love or apathy toward the film, Titanic was convergence of all the right elements to put it through the stratosphere and that has to be respected and marveled at despite your feelings about the man or the movie. Titanic might just be the most aptly titled film in history.
So, will any film ever challenge Cameron's tenure at the top? That's impossible to predict but not altogether impossible to achieve. It might be the final Harry Potter film or it could be some unknown project that takes the world by storm. Until that time, Titanic will sit on its pedestal waiting and enjoying the view.