Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
July 30, 2008
BoxOfficeProphets.com

It wasn't the best sports week.

See, he's rebounding. From Semi-Pro.

Kim Hollis: Do we think this is a good rebound for Will Ferrell after Semi-Pro, or do we think the bloom is off the rose with regard to the actor?

David Mumpower: This is a result that allows for open-ended interpretation. This is roughly double Semi-Pro's $15.1 million. Is the glass half-full in that twice as many people gave this a shot relative to Semi-Pro or is it half-empty because he's selling fewer tickets than he did with the aforementioned Blades of Glory and Talladega Nights? I think this performance sustains Ferrell's relevance for a bit longer, but his next project needs to be a homerun. Really, that's Ferrell's huge problem. He's got Eddie Murphy Syndrome with some of his movie choices. Moving forward, a few more Anchormans (and there may be another one coming!) and fewer Kicking and Screamings puts him closer to Adam Sandler on the career spectrum than Murphy.

Pete Kilmer: The bloom started falling off Will Ferrell with his disaster of a cameo in Wedding Crashers. I think it was at that point, for me, that I realized that's the only kind of role he can play. The overgrown man child, which he's done in film after film after film. He tried to break that with Kicking and Screaming and Stranger Than Fiction...but no one wanted that from him at that point. So he dropped back to the type of roles that brought him to the table. He may get some more mileage out of it in Anchorman 2 and the upcoming Land of the Lost. But he needs to do something...and fast, or he's co-hosting with Jimmy Fallon in three years.

Tim Briody: MOM! THE MEATLOAF! You're nuts, his cameo in Wedding Crashers was hilarious.

Calvin Trager: Will, it's okay to say "no" to a movie every once in a while. You do not have to be in all of them.

Pete Kilmer: His role in Wedding Crashes brought a hilarious movie grinding to a halt. He added nothing to it and actually took away from a damned funny movie.

Jamie Ruccio: I was a big Will Ferrell fan when he was on SNL but think he's definitely written himself into a corner. I think his movie comedy is in great danger of becoming stale and repetitive. Or perhaps he's simply an entertainer giving an audience what they want. I think you'll begin to see that his movies do well or fail based on an individual basis. If he's smart he'll write Anchorman 2, put it in a drawer and pull it out only in case of emergencies.

Brandon Scott: Having two comedic names attached to the movie certainly helped. I think that is where Semi-Pro faltered by comparison. The best thing about Semi-Pro were the Old Spice ads and Bud Light ads. "Bud Light. Suck one...Cut!!!" Classic.

Sean Collier: Over-saturation might be a bit of a problem at this point. Ferrell is everywhere, and too many of his recent films are slight variations on a theme. Ferrell either needs a new blockbuster that turns his persona in a slightly different direction, or to follow the Jim Carrey path to serious work. Stranger than Fiction laid the seed, now it's time to see what else is out there.

Jason Lee: To me, Will Ferrell will always be one of those actors who can do massive business one second and flop the next. Step Brothers shows what can happen with a comic actor gives his audience exactly what they want and what they'd expect.

Scott Lumley: Will needs to start stretching himself again or his stuff is going to start getting old.

Daron Aldridge: There remains a clear demand for him in the right film. This one seemed more in spirit to Old School, which is doesn't seem as tired as what he did with Semi-Pro. Semi-Pro just came across yet another slapstick, sports movie from Will Ferrell.

Whoops.

Kim Hollis: A BOP prognosticator who shall remain nameless predicted that X-Files: I Want to Believe would open to $45 million. In reality, the movie debuted with only $10.0 million. Are you surprised how poorly this title has performed?

Les Winan: With regard to that prediction, we haven't seen something so off since Ronald Reagan claimed "I don't recall" during the Iran-Contra hearings.

Calvin Trager: At least that Reagan could blame the Alzheimer's.

David Mumpower: While I, like all of our readers, got a big laugh out of Reagen's prediction, none of us could have been prepared for a performance this atrocious. If we adjust for inflation for the first X-Files movie, it would have opened to $45.5 million in 2008 dollars. This means the second X-Files movie lost a stunning 77.6% from the original. Speed 2: Cruise Control did better than that. Dumb and Dumberer did better than that. Son of the Mask effectively matched it. We're talking about the all-time dregs of movie sequel performances here. I don't think anyone fully appreciated the potential degree of failure here. The only positive is that its production budget of $30 million is minuscule by modern standards. So, the movie won't lose a ton.

Tim Briody: They simply waited far too long. Anybody involved in this that is responsible for the huge gap between the two movies, and also between the series ending and this movie should be publicly ridiculed. A series that could have chugged along for several profitable installments is now beyond dead.

Pete Kilmer: Tim is right. They waited too long, the story had nothing to do with the TV series as whole, and it just wasn't scary - all valid reasons for while this didn't work. And it's a damned shame, because the X-Files property could have been a terrific movie franchise that explored the dark heart of terror, crime and all things alien if they wanted it to.

David Mumpower: For the record, I think this is exactly the problem they had with marketing the X-Files sequel. The storyline here is ridiculously dark and shockingly existential. Having seen the movie, I honestly don't know how they could have advertised it effectively without giving away the secret. Without spoiling, it's a modern spin on a horror classic, but the reveal of this is methodical to a point of fault. This is a good idea for an episode, but it probably wasn't "big" enough for a new movie.

Reagen Sulewski: Obviously I screwed the pooch here, but I'm doing here what all great field marshals do - passing the buck. I put the blame squarely on misplaced respect for Fox's marketing department. Way to make me guess wrong, Fox.

Jamie Ruccio: This result didn't surprise me in the least. I wish I had proclaimed it louder and I'm hoping that some of you may recall that I was talking about a $10 million opening for this. If nothing else my girlfriend and my Scully Doll will back me up. As mentioned, too much time had elapsed from the end of the series until this movie.Couple that with the weird secrecy regarding plot details (either they knew they had a bomb on their hands or were entirely too stupid and arrogant to realize that very few, outside of the last remaining die-hards, cared about another X-Files movie), the utterly ordinary and infrequent commercials and the fact that the audience moved on...this opening didn't surprise me. I was into the "X-Files" early on. It was on during my early 20s and I'd stay home Friday nights to watch it before going out. I was known as the kid who wouldn't go out until X-Files was over. They had me right through most of the run (until the wheels started to fall off). I even went to the first movie and was fairly excited about it. When I first saw the commercials for the new movie I was shockingly unmotivated to see this one. The fact that they apparently didn't treat this movie as a do-over for the first one and really work the mythology over proves they misjudged the audience. They got the opening they deserved.

Brandon Scott: Whoever thought this would open four to five times bigger won't "want to believe this", but to answer the question, I'm not surprised by this debut. The program has been out of the public consciousness for a while now, with the first movie being a decade old. The trailers did absolutely nothing to inspire those on the fringe to take the plunge. Predicting it to open at $45 million is an unsolved mystery....that should be locked in an x-file, never to be opened again.

Daron Aldridge: The title apparently was abbreviated from I Want to Believe People Still Want Another X-Files Movie. Honestly, I thought it would open with a number comparable to Step Brothers. Chris Carter has to ask himself if those final Mulder-free and Mulder-lite seasons soured the audience so badly that they couldn't care less about the franchise. At least, Fox (the studio and not the character) kept the budget to $30 million.

Scott Lumley: $10 million seems about right. There's a moment and when it passes it's gone. For the X-files, that moment was about seven years ago.

Jason Lee: I'm surprised, disappointed and disheartened. Even in my worst nightmares, I thought X-Files would AT LEAST do $15 million. I'm really scared that when the actuals come out, X-Files will be under $10 million. There go my hopes for another X-Files movie in 2012.

Sean Collier: Joker: "How about a magic trick?" (David Duchovny approaches) *SLAM*

We feel like breaking out in song for this portion.

Kim Hollis: Mamma Mia! fell only 36% to $17.7 million. It's made $62.6 million after ten days. Are you surprised by the staying power of this particular musical?

David Mumpower: For comparison, let's consider that Hairspray, $118.8 million earner that is getting a sequel, was at $59.7 million after the same time frame. Chicago, a $170.7 million winner, needed 45 days to reach this amount (although it was a platform release). Mamma Mia! has already earned more than Moulin Rouge! did during its complete domestic run. Considering I mainly know Abba through that one Frida song where Phil Collins plays the drums, this blows me away. To a larger point, it exemplifies the fact that due to the ubiquity of High School Musical, the current generation of primary movie-goers lovers their musicals. If you have an idea for a movie right now, do yourself a favor and put it to song.

Reagen Sulewski: If only we'd gotten to Oliver Stone in time for W...

Brandon Scott: Again, the counter-programming has worked and with Hairspray's success and a Hairspray 2 being discussed to boot, the musical is making a solid comeback, much to the chagrin of this writer. If the musical is here for a re-birth, bring back Beat Street!! On second thought, please don't.

Jason Lee: Against Dark Knight, Step Brothers and X-Files, women had nothing to do this weekend. It's no surprise that it's holding so well.

Scott Lumley: It is showing impressive legs, but it really is counter programming at it's finest. The Dark Knight is dominating everything right now and there are people that are out there saying, "I am so sick of that Heath Ledger guy!" (What I think of those people is a different story...) It's really just an opposite to what really seems like the only game in town, that's all.

Daron Aldridge: I am not really surprised because it remains ideal counter-programming for the reigning champ and there wasn't any threat that Step Brothers or X-Files would siphon off any of its audience. Nothing is on the horizon either, so it will likely continue its small drops.