Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
July 28, 2008
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: The Dark Knight fell 52% to $75.1 million. The movie has an astonishing total of $313.8 million after ten days. Where does it go from here?
David Mumpower: Reading between the lines here, I feel The Dark Knight has a reasonable chance of becoming the number two movie ever domestically (in terms of revenue, not ticket sales, obviously). Due to the novel nature of its weekdays, we had not been able to rule out the Titanic possibility yet. This is still the case today (I refuse to rule out anything for a film that earns $300 million in ten days), but its second weekend was the first sign of the money train slowing down. The bump of only 41% from Thursday to Friday is its first sign of "weakness", but this is still the 24th biggest weekend ever. So, The Dark Knight has earned more in its second frame than The Simpsons Movie did on opening weekend. This performance remains superlative even if it did reach the dizzying heights that were theoretically possible. I think this movie will earn $500 million domestically and become the number two overall earner worldwide, too.
Pete Kilmer: This movie has exceeded every expectation I had for it. I predicted a mere $90 opening weekend total. I think anything it does is above and beyond what I thought it could do. This is the standard that the next batch of super hero films will have to measure up to.
Calvin Trager: I figured a 60% drop was automatic given the sheer size of the opening, so add Dark Knight's second weekend to the already lengthy list of its accomplishments.
Reagen Sulewski: James Cameron can call off the hit squad, for now. However, George Lucas cannot. It did manage the biggest second weekend ever, but just barely. Still, it's more than Spider-Man 3 could claim.
Brandon Scott: I think it will reach #2 all-time and could do $1 billion worldwide. It is indeed...astonishing.
Daron Aldridge: In the immortal words of Dr. Peter Venkman, when asked "Where do the stairs go?", the answer is "Up." If it only falls 52% after that mammoth opening (had to look up another superlative since David used all of them in the daily analysis), guessing its final take is just that...guessing. It simply isn't behaving like movies typically do today.
Jason Lee: I believe it becomes the second film in history to gross more than $500 million but that's about it. The DVD comes out for holiday and again, breaks more sales records along the way. The film eventually grosses more than $1 billion worldwide but is notably absent from the major categories at the Oscar, save for a Best Supporting Actor nomination for Heath Ledger.
Scott Lumley: It's going up, baby. Way up. $500 million up. This is the movie that will make Titanic its bitch and I could not be prouder.
Sean Collier: I'm still preparing my triumphant "I bloody told you so" speech for when The Dark Knight hits Titanic's numbers, as Scott Lumley and I boldly predicted last week. There's a perfect storm brewing here - phenomenal word-of-mouth, excellent reviews, multiple repeat viewings from big fans, and no true contender on the horizon. Admittedly, $600 million is a long way off, but I'm still going all in on this call.
David Mumpower: Okay, the two of you need to stop drinking the Kool-Aid. Titanic looks safe for now.
My Big Fat Passionate Pirate of the Dark Knight
Kim Hollis: Since BOP's inception, the biggest box office stories have been Spider-Man, My Big Fat Greek Wedding, The Passion of the Christ, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, and now we throw in The Dark Knight. Out of these five stories, where does this one factor in?
David Mumpower: Ranking the big stories is always a matter of personal prioritization. Is My Big Fat Greek Wedding's $241,437,427 for a $5 million production evaluated differently from an $83,848,082 million opening for a movie utilizing a dead language like The Passion of the Christ? That's tricky. In terms of pure scale, The Dark Knight has obviously smoked everything else. In terms of best story, I still think what Mel Gibson's movie did shocked me the most. I thought Indiana Jones would win the summer and Batman would finish second. Clearly, I had high hopes for Batman that have been dramatically exceeded but $370,782,930 for a movie its first distributor refused to release is still the most remarkable story to me.
Pete Kilmer: I think the big story out of all of these is My Big Fat Greek Wedding. With its grassroots campaign that was a model for Gibson to follow with Passion of the Christ. It made companies realize that some out of the box marketing can make a big movie.
Brandon Scott: Spider-Man rejuvenated the comic-book genre and had a huge web of anticipation. Being a sequel, Dead Man's Chest is essentially similar to TDK with a large built-in audience. There is no denying The Dark Knight has been a massive success, but bear in mind it is essentially on pace to do what the 1989 Batman film did in adjusted inflated gross (roughly $445 million domestic). I would say TDK is about the third biggest story of the bunch. Passion was sold on controversy and being a subtitled film. I would probably have to say that was the biggest story with MBFGW second, being that it was an indie that blew up.
Daron Aldridge: I think it falls behind Passion of the Christ and My Big Fat Greek Wedding. I would argue that no one, even the people involved with the films, would have pegged Passion of the Christ and My Big Fat Greek Wedding as making more than 25% of their respective $370 million and $240 million totals. The momentum of Dark Knight is the most impressive aspect of its run so far to me. Spider-Man and Dead Man's Chest exceeded the high expectations but not on the scale that Batman has.
Jason Lee: I see The Dark Knight as the third biggest story ever. The two indies (Wedding and Passion) are more surprising than Dark Knight, which despite felling records left and right, still was expected to do huge business due to the massive buzz that's been steadily building over the past nine months.
WE ARE VERY PLEASED WITH THESE NUMBERS!!! But we still don't know what we're yelling about.
Kim Hollis: Step Brothers opened to $30.9 million, and Sony executives have indicated that they are pleased with this result. Do you think they should be?
David Mumpower: Yes and no. Given how atrocious the trailers for this were, I see $30 million as a respectable result. The concern is that Blades of Glory opened to $33 million while Talladega Nights: The Legend of Ricky Bobby opened to $47 million. Since this production is a de facto sequel to Talladega Nights in terms of re-pairing that film's leads, it seems like Sony left a lot of money on the table due to the shaky quality of this comedy. But at least it's not the disaster Semi-Pro was.
Tim Briody: They should be very happy. It's a hit both of them needed, since Ferrell's Semi-Pro and Reilly's Walk Hard both tanked.
Pete Kilmer: Remember the day when $30 million was a spectacular opening number?
Jamie Ruccio: I think they can be pleased somewhat. While not at the level of Talladega Nights, it certain was a rebound from Semi-Pro. I think the shelf life of a frat-comedian is certainly finite (see the heyday of Adam Sandler) and that perhaps we're seeing the slow down of Will Ferrell funny-train. I think you can even throw out Talladega Nights as I am not entirely convinced that some of the success was not due in part to the Nascar setting. And I disagree that the trailers were bad, if anything they hinted at what was come. The R-rated trailers even more so.
Brandon Scott: It will be a money maker with a reported $65 million budget. As Ferrell's third largest opening ever as well as being an R-rated title, this is a pretty solid result.
Daron Aldridge: Given the poor showing of Semi-Pro and embarrassing outing of Dewey Cox, "pleased" is probably the most accurate verb Sony could use. They didn't try to oversell their perception of the total. While not even close to Ricky Bobby's debut, it's respectable enough and is only $3 million shy of Semi-Pro's grand total.
Scott Lumley: Of course they should be happy. This is a decent little comedy made for not much money starring Will Ferrell. It's not meant to be a blockbuster, it just has to be profitable. A $30 million opening shows that it should be.
Jason Lee: I think they should be ecstatic. They tricked almost four million people into shelling out hard, earned money for a stupid film.