Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
July 21, 2008
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: The Dark Knight broke the record for best opening weekend with $158.4 million. How surprised are you by this result?
Max Braden: I'm surprised that it was big enough to break the record. It counterproves my dark/light theory of cinematography and box office success. I was expecting at least a few people in the country to say "no thanks, reality is grim enough for me already, you go on without me."
Pete Kilmer: I'm truly stunned by how much this made.
Calvin Trager: If you recall, the staff had a spirited debate about a month ago whether or not $100 million would be breached, with the consensus being that a result in the high $90s was more realistic given the tone and the franchise's history. So, yeah, surprised as all get out.
David Mumpower: I recently stated that I felt this movie could surpass Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest to become the second biggest opener of all-time. I did not feel like Spider-Man 3's record was in play here due to the malevolent tone of The Dark Knight. Spider-Man 3 appealed to children more while this title seemed to want to scare them away. So, it's only about $20 million more than I had expected, but I am shocked nonetheless. That last $20 million is everything.
Tim Briody: There just aren't any words. People pretty much conceded that this was going to be a $100 million opener by the start of the week and then it just kept rising from there. Any talk of beating Spider-Man 3 was generally crazy until about midnight Thursday, right around when the first screenings started.
Joel Corcoran: Like everyone else, I was stunned. I knew The Dark Knight would hit break the top ten of all-time opening weekends, and I didn't think a top five showing was out of the question. But to beat out Spider-Man 3 so convincingly just leaves me stunned and amazed. Stunned, amazed, and thrilled, actually, 'cause I detest Spider-Man 3.
Daron Aldridge: I was stunned to hear of the colossal $67 million total from Friday and had no clue that it would explode like that. I knew awareness and anticipation was very high but sweet Jeebus, that was unreal. Based upon the performance of Batman Begins, I was thinking about mid-$120s. That being said, I couldn't be more ecstatic that the best superhero around now holds the record.
Sean Collier: Earlier in the week, I had a long conversation with friends, explaining why Dark Knight was going to do very well, but come nowhere near the record. Now they all think I'm a moron. Thanks, Dark Knight.
Scott Lumley: I'm not really surprised at all. It was timed perfectly, marketed perfectly and featured one of the most astonishing performances of all time by an actor that left us way too soon. If anything, I think this was a little beneath my expectations.
Jamie Ruccio: Honestly, I wasn't surprised. Batman Begins was critically and financially successful. There was, I thought, tremendous home-grown interest months in advance. This interest was only intensified with the unfortunate death of Heath Ledger and the advanced word on the quality of his performance. There was a smart online campaign. It's traditionally been a very successful franchise.
RIP, Heath
Kim Hollis: Let's address the elephant in the living room. How much do you think Heath Ledger's shocking death impacted the box office of The Dark Knight?
Max Braden: I think there's a 'perfect storm' at work regarding his death, his role, and the movie's success. Had he died right after Candy or I'm Not There, there would not have been a noticable box office difference. After Brokeback Mountain, probably, and with The Dark Knight I would say there was a significant box office response to this final performance. But if one of the other cast members had died the same way (even Bale), I don't think the response would have been as great as is was for Ledger (however immeasurable that is), which indicates that it was Ledger uniquely and what he did in this particular role rather than his death that was the dominant factor.
Pete Kilmer: Max hit the nail on the head...Ledger's performance and the fact that he passed away led to that perfect storm. I don't think this would have happened with any of his other movies.
David Mumpower: I agree with Max's sentiment. If we go back in time to May of 1994, there was a smaller scale version of this situation with Brandon Lee in The Crow. That was a modest $15 million production that no one expected to be a box office hit prior to his death. Due to the macabre publicity the movie received after his death, it became successful due in large part to rubbernecking. The movie opened in first place with $11.8 million, 80% of its budget, and went on to earn $50.7 million during its theatrical run. I have felt for a while now that The Dark Knight had a lot going for it anyway, but The Brandon Lee Factor created six months of anticipation and free advertising. It's a ghastly thought process, but it's true.
Tim Briody: I agree with what's been said. Immediately after his death, it was known that The Dark Knight was his final performance, and the first reports that he absolutely knocked it out of the park were surfacing. While TDK was brilliantly marketed, free advertising, as morbid as it might be, never hurts either.
Calvin Trager: Yes, it's morbid either way, but I think some credit is due for the fact that the formal marketing campaign didn't play on Ledger's death. They definitely benefited from the tabloid shows doing their dirty work for them but I think they can correctly be seen as having taken the high road in a difficult situation.
Tim Briody: Absolutely. The studio blatantly trying to capitalize on this would have probably been detrimental to the opening out of protest.
Daron Aldridge: It is likely impossible to try to quantify this in dollars, but I think that his death created more sense of curiosity, tribute, or fandom in the public conscious. Therefore, it caught the attention of people otherwise uninterested in a Batman movie, so they could see his final completed performance.
Sean Collier: It's hard to remember the buzz for The Dark Knight before Ledger's death, but think back. As much as people loved Batman Begins and Bale/Eckhart/Caine et al, Ledger was all anyone mentioned when The Dark Knight came up in conversation, from the moment the first image of him in costume and makeup was released. He was going to be the driving force behind the movie's success either way - his death, tragic though it was, added to the mystique that already existed around the role. Would TDK hold the record if Ledger were alive? Maybe not, but it still would've been damn close.
Scott Lumley: It might have impacted the box office a little, but really, is the demographic for people that slow down to look at car wrecks all that big? I hope not. This was eagerly anticipated long before Heath died and history shows that we as the viewing public love the Joker even more than we love Batman.
Brandon Scott: It's so difficult to put a dollar sign on this accurately. I'll say this, when I saw the film, I sat by my girlfriend, a 60+ year-old-woman who came alone to my right and an 80+ year-old woman who came alone in front of me. My bet is that at least three of these people were here, on opening weekend no less, to see a film based on a comic book(!) for one reason and one reason only...Heath Ledger. His death had an enormous positive financial impact on this film, no joke.
How do I love thee? Let me count the ways.
Kim Hollis: Other than Heath Ledger, what do you think are the primary reasons for The Dark Knight to open $100 million higher than its predecessor, Batman Begins?
Max Braden: I think it's the non-super hero element. Nolan was successful in restarting the Batman franchise because he grounded closer to reality than the theatrics of the earlier films. I think that's also why Iron Man did so well - these guys are human and use determination to become heroic. The Hulk and Helllboy 2 didn't do as well, because they're about supernatural forces. I think Hancock (and the previous record holder Spider-Man) bridged the two worlds by being a regular guy with super powers, rather than some otherworldy supernoble Superman.
Pete Kilmer: The DVD life of Batman Begins and the constant showings on cable really helped push this film. Viewers really gave the creators and performers of this movie a lot of credit after seeing the first one. Max I might disagree with using Hulk and Hellboy, with the Hulk it had to overcome the Ang Lee debacle in order to become a modest hit. For Hellboy, he doesn't have the name recognition that Batman does...I'd put Hellboy more in the 'Blade' level of movies, Hellboy II was a big hit compared to the first one, but not close when you look at The Dark Knight or even Batman Begins. Plus the other factor is...there are more IMAX screens now compared to Batman Begins and I have to think that played a big part.
Calvin Trager: I'd argue that Begins is the anomaly that needs explaining away, not Dark Knight. Take the inflation-adjusted performance of the original Batman ($65 million on 2194 screens), double it, and you get Dark Night's screen count and darn near it's weekend take. Give Ledger credit for the extra $20 mil.
David Mumpower: I agree with Calvin Trager. It's almost forgotten now, but the 1989 release of Batman shattered this same opening weekend record we saw surpassed by its successor over the weekend. That movie inflation adjusts to a $72.7 million opening and $447.6 million in domestic receipts. So, The Dark Knight probably will not sell as many tickets as the Jack Nicholson version did. This franchise was to the early 1990s what Spider-Man has been to the 2000s, but Joel Schumaker undid it with nippled costumes, a 30-year-old Robin, and Uma Thurman. Movie-goers want to go see Batman movies, but Batman Begins had to regain consumers' trust.
Tim Briody: I happened to be looking at our Batman Begins discussion from a couple years ago recently and I think we agreed that Batman Begins was going to suffer at the box office at the expense of setting up future films in the franchise. The reboot was necessary to get the stink of Batman and Robin off of it. For the record, The Dark Knight outgrossed B&R after Saturday.
Kevin Chen: It might be the white elephant with black eye makeup and smeared red lipstick in the room, but Batman versus the Joker is the Ali/Frazier of the comic book world. Compare this to the villains of Batman Begins: The Scarecrow and Ra's Al Ghul. Give a non-fan audience those names out of context, and you'd probably think that one of Dorothy's companions had teamed up with a Middle Eastern terrorist.
Scott Lumley: Really, this is the textbook example of how to do a movie. Get a stellar cast, a stellar script, a stellar director, create a wickedly cool marketing campaign and make sure you own the release date. It didn't hurt that word on Batman Begins was uniformly excellent.
Brandon Scott: Infamous Rap group Public Enemy told us not to believe 'it', but a record number of us bought into it this weekend...HYPE.
Daron Aldridge: Two things apply here: quality and word-of-mouth. The reviews have not only been positive but rabidly enthusiastic about how great the film is. There is often the danger of raising already high expectations of the public, who are then disappointed in the endgame. But apparently, the critics didn't lie, as I haven't heard a soul say they were disappointed, which then contributes to tremendous positive word of mouth.