Daily Box Office Analysis for July 1, 2008
By David Mumpower
July 2, 2008
BoxOfficeProphets.com
I had not expected Sony to release official numbers for Hancock, so the focus of this column will not be as WALL-E specific as had been intended. Hancock immediately becomes the bigger story. BOP's own Reagen Sulewski has projected a $108 million total for the five and a half day period from last night until Sunday. I ordinarily agree with Reagen on such matters, but I have felt he was underestimating this one. Yesterday's number doesn't establish a pattern for either of our expectations yet. It is one of the better pre-opening day sneaks in recent memory, but it is also roughly $2 million less than Transformers made in roughly the same situation last year. In fact, that entire day of box office uncannily mirrors what happened yesterday, as the other film generating major discussion was the prior weekend's major release, Ratatouille. If you want to check out the 2007 story, click here. I'm pressed for time today since I am going to see...yup, Hancock. So, it's a happy little coincidence that a lot of last year's data is relevant here.
In terms of where Hancock goes from here, BOP is obviously expecting it to be a juggernaut as is the studio. No matter what they may say, anything less than $100 million by Sunday is going to be a disappointment for them. I clearly do not expect this to be an issue, but we will be able to better able evaluate the veracity of this starting tomorrow. A full day of box office to compare against the $6.8 million in the bank will give us a good first impression of viewer demand for the project. The one caveat here is that calendar configuration will hurt Hancock more than Transformers.
We have discussed the concept of the "anti-holiday" on BOP on several occasions. For those of you new to the site A) Welcome! and B) Where in the Blue Hell have you been? But I digress. The point is that a certain kind of holiday falling on a weekend day (Friday, Saturday or Sunday) can negatively impact its box office. The reason for this is that July 4th, December 24th and December 31st are calendar dates that are not conducive to strong box office results. If one of those dates happens to fall on a weekend, films will experience artificial box office deflation on those specific days. Transformers avoided this fate as its July 4th occurred on a Wednesday. Due to the Leap Year, we have bumped forward two days in the cycle from 2007, leaving July 4th on a Friday.
The last time this happened was in 2003 when the two major new movies in release were Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines and Legally Blonde 2: Red, White and Blonde. Those films earned combined revenue of $18.6 million on Thursday as opposed to $19.2 million on Friday. When box office only increases 3.2% from Thursday to Friday for the top two films in release, something troublesome is in play. So, Hancock is going to do brilliantly today and tomorrow, but the difference between Thursday and Friday numbers will not be the bump that we would usually expect entering the weekend. Try to keep this in mind over the next 72 hours as you're off BBQ-ing and shooting off fireworks. And light a roman candle for me.
Circling back to WALL-E for a moment, the latest Pixar release fell 14.7% from its Monday result. The obvious question is how this stacks up to other Pixar titles as well as Kung Fu Panda. We will stick to the same three we discussed yesterday. Those are Ratatouille, Cars and Finding Nemo. Ratatouille actually increased 4.6% to $7.9 million on its first Tuesday. Meanwhile, Cars fell 10.4% to $5.7 million and Finding Nemo fell between them. It earned $7.2 million, a 3.4% Monday/Tuesday increase. Obviously, the news for WALL-E is much less positive than it was yesterday in terms of depreciation relative to comparable Pixar releases. It had the worst drop of the four titles. Its drop is also more than the 4.0% decline Kung Fu Panda had on its first Tuesday, a $6.1 million outing. Those of you who are more alert are probably realizing that Ratatouille, the title with the worst opening weekend, actually had the best Tuesday of the group, a particularly impressive feat. So, it's a bit of a phenomenon in this regard. Even so, WALL-E has the second best Pixar Tuesday in terms of actual dollars, and it's hard to get too torn about this result. I will only grow alarmed if the behavior continues over the next two days.
Wanted, on the other hand, experiences the same sort of Monday/Tuesday decline that wiped out The Love Guru a couple of weeks ago. I have no good explanation for the behavior, but both titles had remarkably strong Monday performances. Then, on Tuesday, the bottom fell out. Wanted fell a stiff 27.9% to $4,603,750 yesterday. This is 4.1% less than the $4,801,850 The Incredible Hulk managed in its first Tuesday.
I know that my Canadian brethren are chomping at the bit to notify me that Tuesday was Canada Day, and this is why box office was so good Monday night. I am aware of this phenomenon, but it should have impacted Tuesday to some degree as well. Clearly, there is some effect as six titles in the top 10 experienced drops of 20% or more, but Wanted had the third worst decline. The only releases that fell harder are word-of-mouth disasters The Love Guru and The Happening. So, the question to track in coming days is whether or not Wanted experienced (Canadian) holiday-related deflation or whether Tuesday was the first tell-tale sign of a movie whose buzz is hurting it. Reagen Sulewski, who happens to be Canadian, informs me that Canada Day is like July 4th in the way it's celebrated. If this is the case, it's a similar example of an anti-holiday. Tomorrow's numbers will tell the tale.
Overall box office for the top ten was exemplary. A $26,094,824 for the top ten is the best total we have seen this summer to date, and tomorrow's numbers will be even better. The next week of box office is going to be huuuuuge.