July 2008 Forecast
By David Mumpower
July 2, 2008
BoxOfficeProphets.com
The only question involving The Dark Knight at this point is whether its final domestic box office take will surpass Iron Man and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull to become the number one hit of the summer and, presumably, the year. Those two films are currently within $9 million of each other for the title, with Crystal Skull holding a strong possibility of temporarily going ahead for a few days before eventually ceding the title to the head Avenger. So, it's the YouTube gag of I'm a Marvel and I'm a DC unfolding at the Cineplex. For most of the year, I had been expecting Batman to come up short (after all, its immediate predecessor, Batman Begins, earned "only" $205.3 million). In recent weeks, however, I must admit that the buzz surrounding the project seems Spider-Man-esque. The only question is whether the unmistakable malevolence of the project stops some parents from (rightly) taking their kids to theaters. As of this moment, I believe The Dark Knight is the favorite to win the summer, which would also mean that we have films clear $300 million in three consecutive months.
2) Hancock
Will Smith's run of successful movie releases doesn't quite rival Pixar, but he's got pretty much everyone else in the world beat. He's like a series of Harry Potter movies, but with mutants and tense solutions to the Rubik's Cube. Hancock is a rather daring role for him in that the character appears truly despicable, an uncontrollable anti-hero. This movie seems like Mystery Men with just a touch of Galaxy Quest thrown in, but the presence of Smith fundamentally alters its opening weekend box office expectations. Were anyone else starring in this movie, we would be talking about My Super Ex-Girlfriend as an accurate comparison. With Smith starring in a trailer featuring the insertion of one felon's head in another's posterior (complete with hysterical sound effect), it turns into a title headed for $175+ million at the box office. If the Fresh Prince ever provides the lead voice in a Pixar movie about Harry Potter, Titanic's reign will end.
3) Hellboy 2: The Golden Army
The difference between the top two films in July and the rest of the list is the difference between LeBron James and the rest of the Cleveland Cavaliers. Hellboy 2 could break $100 million, but in order to accomplish this feat, it would have to be the rare sequel to outperform its successor. I suspect that it will follow The Dark Knight in this regard. Of course, that may be wishing and hoping on my part more than anything. The first Hellboy is a personal favorite and the previews for this film have me hoping for a truly spectacular comic book adaptation with fairy tale elements in place. Given the audience reception to the trailers, I see this as distinct possibility.
4) Journey to the Center of the Earth
Yeah, I'm not sure about this one, either. The commercials are far from stellar, and the end bit with the dinosaur drooling over a prepubescent boy is a bit too Neverland Ranch for me. It seems to do well with its intended target audience, however. You know these people as the ones who failed to make Speed Racer a hit, but I am going out on a limb here with the argument that this IMAX release will prove more enticing. The Real-D technology in place leads to higher ticket prices (roughly $12.50 as opposed to the current average ticket price of $7.11) in over a quarter of its exhibitions. I'm not saying this will be a blockbuster by any stretch. Walden Media is floating a $45 million production budget for the film, though, meaning it doesn't have to do that well to be a winner.
5) The X-Files: I Want to Believe
The title says it all for me. I was a huge fan of the show back when it had so few viewers that Fox was talking about canceling it before it got out of its first season. I relished the years of overwhelming success it experienced (Duane Berry rules!), but my heart was broken when the first X-Files movie came out. It started off wonderfully with the bomb scene, but then it degraded into some convoluted story involving killer bees or something like that. I barely recall the details now, much like the later seasons of the show as cast members gradually ran off and were replaced by former Terminators. The X-Files fell off the charts faster than Sir Mix-a-Lot. So, the news of a fresh Chris Carter story focused upon storytelling rather than a convoluted mythology involving vaccines and aliens...well, it gives me hope. I want to believe that Carter will recapture the magic of Mulder and Scully again, and I strongly suspect a lot of consumers will be with me on this, at least on opening weekend. Whether we are all played for suckers remains to be seen.
6) Step Brothers
Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby is a wonderful, hilarious movie. I never get tired of it, particularly the scenes involving Ricky Bobby's physical (and mental) rehab. The surprise in the film is the marvelous chemistry between Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly. And it is this very knowledge that makes me gaze upon the trailer for Step Brothers and wonder what in the blue hell happened to them. This thing is the opposite of funny. It's that stupid type of anti-comedy Tom Green tried to create in Freddy Got Fingered. Perhaps worst of all is the fact that Step Brothers is a movie concept that already failed once recently when Will Arnett and Will Forte co-starred in Brothers Solomon. The only reason I have any box office expectations for this whatsoever is that the folks who fondly remember Talladega Nights (it was only two years ago) may be lured in by hopes of a de facto sequel. This will not end well for them.
7) Mamma Mia!
A musical of ABBA songs? Yeah, I might not be the target audience here. Reviews border on the rapturous, however, and Sex and the City has created a positively reinforced environment for chick flicks this summer. I think Mamma Mia! is poised to surprise and could wind up being a Hairspray-sized hit. Such an achievement would mean I have seriously underrated it on this list, but I'm a guy. As a guy, I feel uncomfortable putting a musical celebrating ABBA songs any higher on my list.
8) Meet Dave
God help us, people are laughing at this trailer. I don't know why and I wish it were not true. In fact, I wish evil fates upon those who do laugh at this trailer. I hope these fates occur before they show up in theaters, thereby allowing the movie a level of success. In fact, my dearest wish is for Meet Dave to be Love Guru'd, but I just don't think it is going to happen. Prove me wrong, North America! Listen to Scary Spice about Eddie Murphy!
9) Kit Kittredge: An American Girl
Some people are dismissing the first week per-venue average as representative of the $20-$25 ticket prices. Others are holding firm to the belief that the film was aided by showing in the five cities with physical stores of the American Dolls franchise. I agree with both of these lines of thinking and I also feel that we should be much more alarmed by the 51% drop in weekend two than would normally be the case. Playing in so few venues, the film should have held up much better if there was demand for it beyond the novelty fangirl obsession. Even so, I trust my wife and she tells me that little girls will eat this movie up. That makes it the marginal choice to not be the worst performer of any wide release in July. That honor instead goes to...
10) Space Chimps
Yes, I love the title, too. In fact, I always hear it in the Muppets voice used to announce the arrival of Pigs in Space skits. Even so, I struggle to envision a scenario wherein this movie is viewed as anything other than a novelty act by most consumers. Of course, I would have said the same thing about Alvin and the Chipmunks at this time last year and in fact probably did (repeatedly). The decision making process of children is a source of complete mystery to all of us, which is why box office tracking for kids' films is no more accurate than random number generation. If kids want to see Space Chimps instead of creepy little doll-girls from the prohibition era, good for them. And if they want to see creepy little doll-girls more, well, they can look forward to growing up and eventually enjoying repeated viewings of Mamma Mia, a movie highlighting the collective works of ABBA. The beauty of this is that the remaining members of ABBA are old enough to be the great-great grandparents of the kids I am now ceding to be lost musical causes.