Monday Morning Quarterback Part I
By BOP Staff
June 30, 2008
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: WALL-E opened to $63.1 this weekend, making it the third most successful Pixar debut out of their nine titles. Should Pixar (and Disney) be pleased with this result?
Tim Briody: Absolutely. It's a nice rebound from Ratatoulle, which was an aberration because clearly some people just couldn't deal with the idea of a cooking mouse.
Joel Corcoran: Both Disney and Pixar should be very pleased with this result, rather than merely satisfied. The marketing behind WALL-E didn't really explain the storyline - at least not to the same extent as past Pixar movies - so it's impressive that they were able to gain the opening that they did.
Kevin Chen: I'm not sure what Joel is referring to, because Pixar's trailers and advertising are historically reticent to the point of silence about the plots of its films. The initial trailer for Toy Story 2 was nothing more than a gag featuring everyone's favorite crane-game aliens. Finding Nemo, Cars and The Incredibles featured disposable gags which did not appear in their respective films. Only Ratatouille and WALL-E have divulged facets of their storyline in their promotional materials. And it doesn't even matter - Pixar could make a trailer of grass growing (see, the light source is Luxo, Jr.) and still get people into the theater on opening and successive weekends.
Reagen Sulewski: I thought this had the potential to be a home run: instead it's merely a triple. And with Pixar's unbroken success rate for word-of-mouth, I don't think they're in any sort of trouble in the long run.
Michael Bentley: Reagen, your comment makes me think of another baseball analogy. With the tepid success of Ratatouille, I was beginning to think that audiences were getting complacent. "Oh, another Pixar. I know it'll be great, so I can wait for the DVD." In the 1990s, the Atlanta Braves were regularly winning division titles, yet they often had empty seats. But WALL-E gives me hope that this isn't the case.
Sean Collier: When comparing 2008 returns to the past, we can't forget a few things: the economy is in the tubes, it costs more than ever to drive to the theater, and the tickets cost more than ever once you arrive. It isn't easy to take a family to the movies anymore (or rather, it's harder than ever; anyone who's tried to corral five children in a crowded movie theater lobby will be quick to point out that it's never been exactly easy.) The fact that so many families dropped about $60 on gas, tickets, and concessions for WALL-E is plenty significant. During surer economic times, WALL-E easily could've been Pixar's biggest opening ever; all things considered, it's still doing great. Wonderful word-of-mouth, glowing reviews, and no surefire blockbuster kiddie flicks in July (no, you don't count, Space Chimps,) should equal legs and millions. Pixar and Disney should be pefectly happy.
Scott Lumley: I think Pixar and Disney may actually be a little disappointed with the result, if you can believe it. This is a movie that clearly is in the Pixar tradition of excellence and the reviews have been very good so far, so I don't think a result of $75 million should have been out of range. I think it may be their own fault in this regard. They made an interesting movie that requires a bit of thought and has little dialogue. For any other studio, I'd think producing a movie like this is borderline crazy. But it's Pixar, so it's merely them growing a little bit more as they have with every film. I feel this one is going to have solid legs, and like always, the DVD is going right into about 50 million libraries worldwide as soon as it is released, so no matter what happens, the boys are going to be swimming in a big vault of money. It's just that the pool of cash is an inch lower than they expected for their first week of release.
Jason Lee: Given the film's extrodinary opening day gross on Friday (largest ever for Pixar), I was a little disappointed with the Saturday/Sunday holds. Granted, it's a summer release but something closer to the mid-high $60s would have been nice. Even with Ratatouille's internal multipler, this film grabs an extra $4 million- that's enough for another Saw movie! (Now let's all recoil in horror at the idea of Pixar making Saw V.)
Daron Aldridge: They should be very pleased and additionally, this is the second best of Pixar's summer openings. Based upon the praise lavished upon the film, eerily, yet predictably similar to Ratatouille last year, WALL-E could be in for a long, green summer. If it follows Remy's multiplier of 4.4, then it will end with $274 million. That's quite a nice swan song for Pixar's last solo project.
David Mumpower: Exhibitors had been indicating that this was the toughest sell of any Pixar title to date, which had me confused. A cooking rat is much less enticing than a robot love story. The former movie might as well be called Health Code Violation while the latter is best described as Fun for a Boy and a Girl, Even More Than a Slinky.
Bring out the Robotic Buster Keaton
Kim Hollis: WALL-E is expected to follow the trend of other Pixar releases by having huge legs. Given that consumers will tell their friends that this is largely a silent film for the first half, do you think legs could be more of a problem than would ordinarily be the case for a Pixar film?
Tim Briody: Considering the rapturous response to it, I don't think it will be a problem at all. With the opening it's had, I wouldn't be surprised it if eventually settles in as the #2 Pixar film, box office wise.
Joel Corcoran: I think it's a wash. Word-of-mouth might be more of a problem among the typical family viewers who want to take their kids to films like Shrek or Madagascar, but I think the "silent film" aspect will help bring people in from other demographics. And I think Tim is spot-on correct when he predicts that WALL-E ends up as Pixar's #2 film in terms of box office.
Kevin Chen: Lack of dialogue only hurts if the action onscreen fails to be engaging. Pixar has been entertaining people for a decade with wordless short films prior to the main feature (with the exception of Boundin') so clearly this is not new territory for them. It's a non-issue save for critics/reviewers who want to comment on its novelty.
David Mumpower: Kevin's right. I would even argue that the film is significantly less magical once the characters start talking a lot. The silent movie moments are a bit too Mr. Bean for me at times, but the first half of WALL-E is damned near perfect. After that, it loses some momentum. As for legs, we're heading into one of the busiest box office periods of the year. WALL-E is going to be a juggernaut over the next ten days.
Scott Lumley: You cannot seriously be asking that question, Kim. It's a Pixar film. It's excellent. It's crushed all box office competition this week, and from what I hear, repeat viewings are going to be common. This is going to rack up close to $300 million domestically before it's all said and done.
Jason Lee: Well, Remy had four legs in Rataouille and WALL-E has none, so we could be in trouble (pause for laughter). All punning aside, the reviews, as always, have been amazing and the Pixar brand is stronger than ever. The visuals are specatcular, the main character is adorable and even Kung Fu Panda will gross around 3.5 times its opening weekend. If Kung Fu Panda can do 3.5, I say that WALL-E (like Ratatouille) will do at least 4.
Daron Aldridge: I am more concerned about the fact that the projections based upon the $23 million Friday had a weekend tally closer to $70 million, including $68.7 million from BOP. I am by no means blaming word-of-mouth for a lower multiplier than expected other than there might have been more people wanting to get their kids to the theater on Friday for something new since Kung Fu Panda was entering its fourth weekend. Given that this is a big victory for a fairly nontraditional story, I doubt anyone will linger on the lower multiplier. Also, don't forget that legs could depend upon the size of John Ratzenberger's role. I wonder if there is any correlation between his "screen" time and the box office total. Hmmmmmm.
It's probably not a coincidence that the guy who started Apple has played a major role in Pixar
Kim Hollis: Is there any name brand you trust more than Pixar in any industry?
Sean Collier: Guinness. That's about it.
Joel Corcoran: The only other time I've trusted a brand name more as much as Pixar was Wizards of the Coast circa 1995 to 1999. Or Disney itself years ago when I was a kid. Those are the only times I've had unconditional trust that not only would a company put out a quality product with every release, but that the company as a whole has a true and genuine love of their work. And that they pay attention so strongly to the interests of their fans, rather than just exploiting people for a quick buck.
David Mumpower: Joel's answer alarms me. As for brands I trust as much or more, the only one I can come up with is TiVo. Pixar simply does not make mistakes. It's uncanny.
Jerry Simpson: Pixar is so head and shoulders better than anyone else right now it's even hard for me to make a historical comparison. Apple is obvious, but they have had flops and missteps. There were only seven Harry Potter books, and Pixar has made nine. The only two fair comparisons I can think of are Ferrari in Formula 1 and the Boston Celtics.
Michael Bentley: In a word: no. I trust Pixar more than I trust Mountain Dew to give me some pep in the afternoon at work and more than I trust even Chick-fil-A to give me great service and a great meal. Until they make a stinker, I have total blind faith.
Calvin Trager: I can think of a few, like Honda, but they only underscore Pixar's strength. They're running with the giants. Promotional consideration for this response was provided by Honda.
Brandon Scott: No, and how could you really? Pixar's list of hits is bigger and longer than a BALCO'd out, Barry Bonds HR. Unlike Barry, they are THE most trusted name in the industry, kinda like Johnson & Johnson is with baby powder. With your figurative ass on the line, who would you want to cover you?
Jason Lee: Words cannot convey how much I love Pixar. I would hire them to plan my wedding if I could . . . really. It'd probably be the most imaginative, magical and enjoyable wedding in the entirety of human history. I'd probably get every item on my registry.
Scott Lumley: Pixar has become the gold standard of film making. It's just that simple. What other studio has put out such a string of completely wonderful film? The only studio that I can think of that has routinely produced such solid entertainment is actually a video game studio, and that would be Blizzard. Nobody else in the entertainment field is even close to what Pixar is doing right now.
Daron Aldridge: For high quality, public-pleasing products, I would have to go with Apple. I am hearing nothing but great things about the new iPhone...Okay, I can't even keep up such a ridiculously, unrealistic example. Seriously, for any industry, Pixar is a unique beast and stands alone in my mind for consistently giving the public what they want, even when they don't know they want it. Was anyone clamoring for a story about a neurotic clownfish, a cooking rat, or a robot cleaning up an abandoned Earth? No, but now we don't really know how we lived without them and that, my friends, is the way movies are supposed to be.