Weekend Forecast for April 4-6, 2008
By Reagen Sulewski
April 4, 2008
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Leatherheads is George Clooney's latest, both in front of and behind the camera. Set in the world of 1920s pro football, when it was viewed with about as much respect as pro wrestling, Clooney plays an owner/player of a struggling franchise, who hits upon the idea of luring a quarterback (who also happens to be a war hero) from the far more respected ranks of college ball to his team to boost attendance. It works, at least at first, and attracts national attention, including a reporter played by Renee Zellweger (who seems to have the label "intrepid" stenciled on her) and creating a love triangle between her, Clooney and the college QB (The Office's John Krasinski).
Clooney is hearkening back not just to the sports of the '20s, but the comedy style of the '20s, when screwball romantic comedies ruled the day. Something about all of this seems just a little bit off, like everyone involved is trying just a little bit too hard. An easy comparison here is Clooney's own Intolerable Cruelty, one of the two forgettable Coen Brothers comedies, which opened to $12 million. The football aspect makes this film a bit more attractive to the male demographic, and there are some better overall gags in the commercials, but I'm not seeing a huge hit here, despite Clooney's presence (and really, it's been forever since he's had one). It should win the weekend, but with a modest $18 million.
The latest film from Walden Media, Nim's Island, tackles the kiddie market for this weekend. Based on a popular children's adventure novel, it stars Abigail Breslin and Gerard Butler as a father and daughter who live on a remote tropical island. Breslin conducts a wild fantastic life for herself based on her favorite adventure novel series and filled with vaguely anthropomorphic animals. When the series' author (played by Jodie Foster) washes up on their island and Butler goes missing, it's up to the two of them to bring him back. I'll let you guess how it turns out.
While films with girl protagonists have made strides recently, it's a plain fact that boys generally won't see them, inherently limiting the prospects of a film like this. Breslin is a cut above most child stars, and Butler and Foster are well-respected adult leads, so this could help make it tolerable for parents, but overall we're looking at a film with a pretty narrow focus. However, it looks decent compared to other pre-teen targeted films. The book, as far as I can tell, was not as popular as something like Bridge to Terabitha, which surprised a lot of people with a $28 million opening. This looks a lot more generic, but should manage around $12 million opening weekend.
Finally, we have our horror option for the weekend, The Ruins. Also based on a book (written by Scott Smith, who gave us the superior crime thriller/morality play A Simple Plan), it focuses on a group of nubile young coeds who stumble upon an ancient tribe in the middle of the Mexican jungle while on vacation. This is a tribe whose norms don't include things like "don't practice human sacrifice", so it's kind of unfortunate for our young stars.
Instead, they're led to a secret site in the middle of the jungle that contains a mysterious sentient plant that seems to have it in for them... erm, OK, the film might have lost me here. But the ads are suitably creepy, and anytime you've got a concept that involves things going under people's skin, you've probably got a winner on your hands.
This reminds me a little of 2002's Cabin Fever, if a bit more polished and without Eli Roth's obsession with gore (though there certainly is some). That comparison means that while I wouldn't surprised if this became a stealth hit, it's probably going to be more of a calling card for first time director Carter Smith than anything. Give it $9 million on the weekend.
Last weekend's box office was won by 21 with a surprising $24 million. The heavily fictionalized story of the MIT Blackjack Team seemed to find a spot as the date movie of choice last weekend, mixing intrigue, sex and the allure of gambling. Word-of-mouth is pretty terrible, so I don't expect it to stick around, but it's already exceeded expectations. Let's say it will get $13 million in its second weekend.
Horton Hears a Who! is still very strong heading into its fourth weekend, with over $120 million in the bank. It finally gets some competition in the children's film department from Nim's Island, but I don't think this will be much of a factor in how well the Dr. Seuss adaptation does at this point. As an animated film, it's already skewing to a different set of audiences, both younger and older than Nim's Island. We'll say about $12 million for Horton in its fourth weekend.
Superhero Movie was blessedly a bit of a flop, with just $9.5 million for its opening weekend, after other witless parodies had made in the high teens to low 20s of millions recently. By most accounts, it wasn't even quite as bad as an Epic Movie or Meet the Spartans, but we may be seeing that the public is a bit tired of these rote recapping of overdone pop culture jokes – or maybe just two of them in four months was too much. Either way, I'm calling it a win. Look for this to pull the big timber act, falling to $4 million in its second weekend.