Daily Box Office Analysis for August 1, 2007
By David Mumpower
BoxOfficeProphets.com

For the last time, I am -not- skeevier than the Hamburglar.
Today's update has to be brief, as I have too much going on today. That means the column will be one of those (very) rare occasions where I say exactly what needs to be said without taking four times as many words as is needed in order to do so...err, this introduction excluded.

The Simpsons Movie started the week with signs of not being front-loaded. Tuesday's box office pointed an entirely different way as the film dropped dramatically from its solid Monday. Wednesday becomes the tiebreaker, and the news falls somewhere in the middle today. The Simpsons Movie earned $6,406,944, down another 14.6% from Tuesday's $7,501,425.

The two comparisons we have been using are Transformers and Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix. All you need to know here would be the actual dollars of each title to have a pretty good idea of how this is going for The Simpsons Movie. Transformers earned $7,003,058 while Order of the Phoenix was even better with $8,438,206. As you can see, Matt Groening's horse finishes last in this race. The only positive here is that it does not have the steepest drop of the three. That dishonor goes to Transformers, which fell 15.2% whereas Potter's decline was a stellar 11.1%. Given that The Simpsons Movie's numbers are smaller, it's really right in line with Transformers and well behind Potter. So, this is another danger sign of front-loading.

In terms of actual dollars after six days of box office, The Simpsons Movie is at $97,222,671. This puts it waaaaaaaay behind the competition, although this is understandable given that the other two titles had multiple mega-weekdays of box office prior to their weekend debuts. After six days, Transformers was at $155,405,412 while Order of the Phoenix was at $150,130,637. The positive here remains the same old song though. The Simpsons Movie is going to break $100 million after only seven days in theaters. There were few analysts who believed the film would do that in its theatrical run.

Box office for the top ten yesterday combined for only $18,332,532. This is down 9.4% from Tuesday's box office. It is, however, a mild increase of 1.8% from last Thursday. The reality is that we are in a bit of a soft spot on the schedule and need for the early August releases, particularly The Bourne Ultimatum, to do very well in order to keep up the momentum from the start of July.