Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
July 23, 2007
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: It doesn't feel at all like the biggest story of the weekend, but I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry finished at #1, earning $34.8 million in its opening frame. What's your opinion of this debut?
Reagen Sulewski: It's slightly below the curve for Sandler, and with this not being too functionally different in apparent quality from most of his recent comedies, I have to lay this on one factor - the premise. A little more than 10% of Adam Sandler's fans are homophobic enough to miss a movie where he plays a character that pretends to be gay. Although really, it's less than most people might think.
Max Braden: It's a touch soft for a summer comedy, and for Sandler's history, but something greater than $30 million isn't bad, especially considering the poor reviews this one received. I don't think the trailer was particularly great, but I think the movie might have done better about five years ago. Somehow the concept feels a little past peak, and maybe audiences had that in the backs of their minds before deciding to go or not.
Joel Corcoran: I thought the Chuck and Larry premise was an episode of Will and Grace years ago, but I could be wrong. Overall, it seems like a middle-of-the-road opening for a middle-of-the-road comedy. Nothing exceptionally good or bad about its performance on opening weekend, other than it may make a great trivia question someday: "What movie knocked Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix from the #1 spot at the box office?"
Dan Krovich: I think the fact that this opening is considered a bit soft is a testament to Sandler. He's very consistent, and if this is on the low end of what you can expect from a broad Sandler comedy that's got to be good news for a studio. Sandler is still a safe bet in a broad comedy.
Jim Van Nest: I thought Reagen nailed it in his weekend forecast when he said this looked like a Three's Company episode. Dan's right, the fact that it brought in over $30 million is a testament to how golden Sandler is. To take a movie that looks completely terrible and still make that kind of bank...well, let's suffice it to say that Robin Williams wishes he had that kind of box office power.
Michael Bentley: That's absolutely right, Dan. Sandler is one of the safest bets you can make in Hollywood today. Like him or not, his reliability in comedies has been amazing.
Kim Hollis: Really, how long is it until he is considered "uncool"? Obviously he has a fairly loyal contingent of fans, but at some point, if the movies are sucky and forgettable, he's going to lose them.
David Mumpower: In addition to everyone else's comments, the one aspect I take from this is how Adam Sandler's core fan-base does not appear to be enjoying the Big Message phase of his career. With the awkwardly preachy nature of Click followed by Sandler's attempt to take a stance about homophobia, he is alienating the fratboy crowd to a degree with the Jackass crew and Borat being the big beneficiaries.
Coming soon: Adam Sandler in Henry V
Kim Hollis: It seems like Adam Sandler has a pretty standard range for his comedies on opening weekends. Given the lack of critical support for I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry, do you think Sandler should start to focus more on smaller films like Punch-Drunk Love?
Reagen Sulewski: I don't think Sandler's going to give up his bread and butter anytime soon, especially with the performance of Reign Over Me, which stopped short of $20 million. Honestly, I don't even want him to, as bad as his recent big comedies have been (I have to go back to 50 First Dates before I like one). Punch-Drunk Love was a brilliant film, but it took a Paul Thomas Anderson to drag that performance out of him and recontextualize his standard character. I doubt there's too many more directors that are willing to do that.
Max Braden: I think he'll continue to do decently at these types of comedies, though age may become an obstacle in due time. He may have secured his audience so well that they won't believe he'll be able to handle Punch Drunk-type material, regardless of how good he may be at it. Still, unless he shifts to even more family-oriented comedies to tap those dollars, I would expect him to venture more and more into dramas to flex his acting chops.
Dan Krovich: It must be a comfortable feeling for Sandler to know that he can basically pull this off in his sleep. I think he'd keep up a regular supply of these and do some side projects here and there that don't conform to his standard comedy. This is what allows him to try some other things.
Jim Van Nest: What the hell would happen to Rob Schneider if Sandler stopped making these comedies? I don't think he wants *that* on his conscience. Seriously though, I suspect we'll see him begin the Jim Carrey "please give me an Oscar" path anytime now.
Tim Briody: Didn't he already try that with Punch Drunk Love and even Spanglish, Jim? Besides, I don't know if I can live in a world where Billy Madison is an Oscar winner.
Kim Hollis: I do think he's fairly content to do whatever he feels like - whether that be the big, dumb comedy or the smaller-scale Reign Over Me type of films. Just so long as we don't see him take the Robin Williams path, all will be well.
David Mumpower: I expect him to keep throwing the occasional change-up in addition to his normal routine of fish-out-of-water characters. His next project, a Judd Apatow comedy called You Don't Mess with the Zohan, is more of the same, but an opportunity to do something different will present itself in another couple of years. What I wonder most about Sandler is how much longer he can keep targeting the same demographic. He turns 41 this year, and the fungible everyman comedy is starting to wear thin.
Gotta Get'cha Head in the Game
Kim Hollis: Despite dismal tracking numbers with audiences and conservative estimates from forecasters (including our own Reagen Sulewski, who predicted a $14 million weekend), Hairspray was all the rage in theaters this weekend with a three-day total of $27.8 million. To what do you attribute its success?
Reagen Sulewski: Thanks, Kim. Want to open up a paper cut and pour a little lemon juice on that? Other people have pointed to High School Musical as a harbinger of the new teen popularity of musicals, and it sounds like a good a reason as any. And this one, apparently, is actually good, a novel approach. (Please, musical fans, send me more letters. Your anger feeds me.)
Dan Krovich: The move to summer was a sign that New Line was going to do something different with this musical. The recent trend has been a Fall/Winter release in a "prestige" slot and the Broadway audience didn't turn out to be so big with Rent, The Producers, and Phantom of the Opera. They knew they had that, but they were also able to turn it into a teen movie. It's the only one of the recent musical remakes to really target teens with a teen-friendly cast and a summer release. They were smart not to focus on Travolta and Pfeiffer in the advertising, and they put the teen cast front and center. The High School Musical fans turned out to see Zac Efron fall in love with the spirited overweight girl.
David Mumpower: I do believe this is the underlying key to its success. Nobody over 18 realizes this but High School Musical was the third-best selling TV on DVD product of calendar 2006. And I only mean the first release, not a combination of the multiple titles such as the Remix edition. This thing is a juggernaut and with anticipation building for the August 17th debut of the sequel, Efron's presence in Hairspray works as a wonderful short term substitute.
Max Braden: I was also thinking around $15 million, so the relatively large box office surprised me. I think what I overlooked was the most basic point that appealed to the moviegoers that went: "It looks like fun." If teens went to enjoy the high school dances, I now have no doubt that older generation women who first enjoyed John Travolta in "Grease" flocked to see John Travolta in drag.
Michael Bentley: I just can't believe that John Travolta has apparently resurrected his career once again. Even in drag!!
Jim Van Nest: Travolta does seem to have an endless supply of Hollywood lives, doesn't he? And this time, he didn't even have to do a talking baby movie. Having seen travolta on Letterman recently, he is one of the best talk show interviews going right now. I don't think we can discount that as a potential reason for his resurgence. He made me want to see Hairspray and until then, I couldn't have possibly cared less.
Tim Briody: I didn't find out until way late that a member of the High School Musical cast was in this. That's brilliant casting and probably represented a decent percentage of this weekend's take. I'm impressed.
Jerry Simpson: I'm giving all the credit to the Director, Adam Shankman. He keeps directing profitable movies that just should suck and somehow makes them work for the average movie-goer. Somewhere, the Devil has a soul and Adam has hits with The Pacifier, Bringing Down the House, A Walk to Remember, Hairspray, The Wedding Planner, and Cheaper by the Dozen 2...
Kim Hollis: It was a fluffy, colorful, fun looking film that really does work right in the High School Musical wheelhouse. At one time, I had mentioned that I thought it would be a much bigger hit than anyone was expecting. I backed off of that thought when I saw tracking, but my original instincts that it would find a solid audience were sound.
David Mumpower: Kim and I have been debating the box office potential of this one for some time. Given that it's a John Waters premise featuring a transvestite no one particularly likes these days in John Travolta, I am deeply surprised that she has been right all along. While I will continue to mock Reagen indefinitely for missing the mark by so much on Hairspray, the terrible truth is that I would have thought him to be high on this one if anything.
We're 95% certain that reviews aren't important
Kim Hollis: Usually, we say that reviews really don't matter on opening weekend. Given the fact that Hairspray is 94% positive at RottenTomatoes, is it possible that this particular type of film might be an exception to that rule?
Joel Corcoran: If by "this particular type of film" you mean one of those rare films with a very strong (dare I say "cult") following, then yes, I agree - reviews do matter. We're talking about the musical film adaptation of the Broadway musical adaptation of the original movie released almost 20 years ago. "Hairspray" isn't just a movie, it's an entertainment industry unto itself. Had early reviews been generally poor, I think you would've seen a significantly lower box office take on opening weekend. But I think that as long as the reviews are decent to good (if not fantastic as in this case), cultish fans are going to flock to see whatever incarnation of their favorite movie/musical/stage/film production happens to be opening down at the local metroplex.
Reagen Sulewski: Reviews generally don't matter unless they're universally in one direction or another, for the right type of film. For a populist film, like a musical, it really can live or die based on that.
Kim Hollis: By "this type of film", I was generally targeting musicals as well as perhaps some of the dance movies that have appeared over the years. I would definitely say that reviews had an impact in this case, particularly as they were so universally positive. Had they been negative, we'd be making Battlefield Earth jokes today.
David Mumpower: I will go against popular opinion here and maintain that reviews did not in fact have a significant impact on the box office. What matters most is the way that the film spiked its tracking by 80%, and the reason for that is the same reason it almost always is. Hairspray tapped the under-18 demographic to a shocking degree. This is a Stomp the Yard (which opened to $25.9 million despite dreadful reviews) redux, not a statement about the movie's quality. That will show up in its legs.
Okay, but how do you think a remake of Cry-Baby would do?
Kim Hollis: With the successes of Dreamgirls and Hairspray, do you forecast similar good things for Tim Burton's upcoming Sweeney Todd, a film that is significantly different in both tone and content?
Reagen Sulewski: On the surface, I'd expect there to be a fair bit of overlap of John Waters fans and Tim Burton fans, but then this is John Waters' most accessible (family-friendly, even) story, and Sweeney Todd moves well over into the macabre. I think you might have the studio more willing to promote it, but it's still a bit of a dice roll.
Joel Corcoran: I think the crossover among Dreamgirls, Hairspray, and Sweeney Todd is so limited as to be statistically irrelevant, and not only for the reason Reagen pointed out. Admirers of Stephen Sondheim would recoil with revulsion if you lumped Sweeney Todd into the same category as John Waters movies or modern musicals, so I doubt the recent successes of Hairspray and Dreamgirls (or even Chicago, for that matter) will affect Sweeney Todd much at all. However, I'll bet some enterprising young studio exec out there is just chomping at the bit to greenlight the musical film adaptation of Spamalot! now.
Dan Krovich: Sweeney Todd seems completely different to me. I think there was some overlap between Dreamgirls and Hairspray in that they take place at least partially in the same era and the music has some similarities. They also both happen to center on an overweight female who has to overcome superficial preconceptions through her talent. But Sweeney Todd is a totally different beast. It still might do well based on Depp, though.
Jim Van Nest: I seem to just be agreeing with Dan on every point, but the combo of Johnny Depp and Tim Burton will bring people in moreso than some sort of genre-connection with Hairspray and Dreamgirls. Burton just makes such a good looking film and Depp is spot-on in everything he does...that puts me in the seat and I don't even know what Sweeney Todd is about.
Jerry Simpson: As more and more musicals get made, I think there will need to be a distinction made between musical comedy (Dreamgirls, Hairspray, the Footloose remake, etc) and films like Sweeney Todd. Sweeney Todd will be pretty graphic and adult and I'm not sure that the girls will want to see it. I'm sure it will be wonderful in a Depp/Burton way, but the songs aren't catchy and it is about a barber who bakes his victims into pies.
Kim Hollis: I do think that a lot of fans of musicals are fans of all kinds of musicals - but as far as being popular amongst a wider range of movie fans, I think Hairspray's upbeat positivity has it all over the darkness of Sweeney Todd. With that said, I do think Sweeney Todd (if it is good) has the better chance at awards recognition because it's something different than what most musicals have offered recently.
David Mumpower: Honestly, I don't believe one has anything to do with the other. It's like comparing a pair of animated movies simply because they are animated. Hairspray is a teeny bopper light-hearded affair. Sweeney Todd is a Tim Burton bloodbath waiting to happen. I can't draw any conclusions about one from the other any more than I could say how Ratatouille's performance will impact Ponyo on a Cliff.
Harry Potter and the Great Competition Against Himself
Kim Hollis: Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix dropped 58% in weekend two as it earned $32.2 million (and crossed the $200 million mark). Is this about what you expected to happen? Do you think that the release of the final book, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, had an impact?
Les Winan: My assumption is that the release of the book sucked viewers from the movie, as Potter fans who had yet to see the movie were home feverishly reading.
Joel Corcoran: Considering that just about every Harry Potter fan who was old enough to read in June 1997 was holed up with The Deathly Hallows this weekend, and considering this weekend was the biggest literary event since the last Harry Potter book was released, I'd estimate that the book's release was responsible for a good chunk of the weekend two drop-off. Without the book being released, I would've expected around a 40% drop-off.
Michael Bentley: It will be interesting to see how it is does this next weekend, as those eager beaver book readers finish up. How many repeat theater visits will Pottermania be able to spawn?
Jim Van Nest: As a Potter fan who is scared to even get on the Internet for fear of spoiling Book 7 before I have a chance to finish, I'm with Michael, next weekend will be very interesting and I think it will buck the Summer '07 sequel trend and have a very small drop from this weekend. I've never felt such a sense of urgency to finish a book as quickly as possible like this before and I'm quite sure Im not alone. People have put a lot of time, money and thought into this series and the thought of having the very end ruined was enough to keep a ton of people in their homes all weekend reading.
Kim Hollis: I really thought that the book would have an effect, but the drop isn't excessive, in my opinion. It's really right in line with what most of the other blockbusters have done this summer. If it recovers huge this weekend, I'll change my tune.
David Mumpower: I don't take anything from the second weekend drop as a whole. We're still talking about estimates rather than actuals here. Without the actual splits in terms of daily numbers, it's sheer speculation rather than analytical study. Any impact Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows the novel had on Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix the movie will have been felt on Saturday and Sunday. Afterward, it should be an asset rather than a negative. The interest in Potter has peaked at a perfect time for the fifth movie's theatrical presence.
We swear we spoil nothing. It is totally safe to read.
Kim Hollis: Finally, if you've finished reading Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, what grade do you give it?
Joel Corcoran: NO SPOILERS! I wasn't able to get to the midnight release party at Powell's Bookstore (which is, without question, the best bookstore in the entire world), and I haven't yet picked up a copy. However, based on all the Internet buzz and my mother's review, I'm expecting it to be a B+.
Michael Bentley: F! (Just kidding. I'm one of those hard-to-find wacky people who haven't read any of them.)
Kim Hollis: No spoilers here, but I do give it an A.
David Mumpower: It's a solid A+. I am not a person who is blind to reason with regards to the work of J.K. Rowling (Order of the Phoenix is an epic mistake), but the series finishes at a creative peak. She is to be commended for working so tirelessly to make sure that all of the pieces of the puzzle fit into the right places in the end.