Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
June 18, 2007
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer opened to $57.4 million, making it the fifth largest opening of the year behind the May blockbusters and 300. Do you believe Fox is happy with this result?
Tim Briody: They damn well better be overjoyed.
Kim Hollis: I would have to say they're thrilled. Given the horrible reception of the first film, there was no reason to think audiences would flock to theaters to see this one.
Reagen Sulewski: I'm kind of mystified, to tell you the truth. Audiences so far this summer have turned on sequel after sequel if there was any sort of perception of shakiness. But this one, they reward with a higher opening? The first film pretty much defined mediocrity.
Tim Briody: Clearly, after getting burned on trilogies in May, audiences were satisfied with a mere sequel. That's the only explanation I have.
David Mumpower: I suspect that they are not quite as happy as they might let on. As I had discussed here a while ago, X2: X-Men United was the opener model they hoped to emulate as it spiked from a mid-50s for the first one to a mid-80s opening for the sequel. This number slightly exceeds the original's $56.1 million, but it's slightly less if we factor in ticket price inflation. So, they have maintained but they have not grown the brand any.
Kim Hollis: I guess it's (theoretically) a family-friendly, PG-rated film that is only 85 minutes long, good for short attention span types.
David Mumpower: Oh, it's the living, breathing definition of a popcorn flick. The problem is that this should be a much more marketable name brand, at least on a par with X-Men. The fact that it only marginally outperformed Ghost Rider's $45.4 million is troubling, particularly given how hot the first Silver Surfer teaser was.
Kim Hollis: Well, it felt about marginally better than Ghost Rider, so that's probably about what it deserved.
Reagen Sulewski: I guess a lot of people just love the Surfer. He's an intrinsically cool character.
David Mumpower: Marvel's laughing all the way to the bank, though. Ghost Rider and this are going to have combined domestic box office of $225-$250 million. Who cares about quality?
Yawwwwwwwwwwn
Kim Hollis: Does The Rise of the Silver Surfer's opening prove that the new theory of blockbuster fatigue is overrated?
Tim Briody: Sort of. It's not going to affect opening weekends. It's potentially going to impact final box office, especially if there isn't a lot of quality present.
David Mumpower: I think Tim has it drilled. Diehard fans are still making the effort to go out to view these films on opening weekend. The final domestic box office takes, on the other hand, are less than exemplary.
Kim Hollis: Yeah, with Fantastic Four doing better than most analysts were predicting, it's hard to claim that blockbuster fatigue was a factor. At the same time, though, I do think there's a difference between FF2 and the really, really big films like Spidey 3, Shrek the Third and Pirates 3. It's a lot easier to go to the theater and be comfortable and be assured a decent seat with something like Fantastic Four. With Spider-Man 3, I was up in the front couple of rows on opening night and a little bit miserable.
David Mumpower: In addition to what Kim's saying about blockbuster fatigue, the other aspect of this that no one is discussing enough involves the rest of the top ten. The additional releases each week other than the blockbusters are getting swallowed hole. We've already had more wide-release movies with per-venue averages under $2,000 than we had -all- of 2006.
Tim Briody: Yeah, there have been a lot of spectacular flameouts already this year.
David Mumpower: We'll get to a great example of this in a bit.
Kim Hollis: Oh, snap.
Legs not likely to be like Jessica Alba's
Kim Hollis: Will terrible reviews and shaky word-of-mouth be a huge factor in Fantastic Four's legs or do you think it will perform as a children's film anyway?
Tim Briody: I don't see it matching the first one's $154.7 million, so yes.
Kim Hollis: Yeah, I think it will drop in much the same way that the earlier three-quels did. Though I'm sure I said the same thing about the first Fantastic Four and it proved me wrong.
David Mumpower: That's definitely the question of the upcoming week. The original Fantastic Four had a final multiplier of 2.86 with total box office of $154.7 million. I just don't see Silver Surfer doing much beyond $125 million. In fact, less would not surprise me. It's such a blah movie that should hemorrhage venues in two weeks.
Kim Hollis: I can see it being a film that a lot of people will just wait to see on DVD.
David Mumpower: What surprises me the most about Silver Surfer is that it wasn't punished for the lackluster quality of the last movie like most sequels to bad films are.
Perhaps Warner Bros. should plan a heist of their own
Kim Hollis: Ocean's Thirteen fell 47% to $19.1 million with a cumulative gross of $69.8 million. What should Warner Bros. think of this performance?
David Mumpower: As I said in my daily numbers analysis column on Friday, I was expecting weekend box office of $17.5 million. So, assuming this estimate isn't way high, this is a pleasantly surprising hold-over, all things considered. Ocean's Thirteen appears likely to make over $100 million now, so it's doing better than I was braced for.
Tim Briody: Could've been worse?
Reagen Sulewski: It could've been much much worse. Considering it started out on a downward trend, there could have been a rats/sinking ship situation.
Kim Hollis: It's holding better than most of the other big films, so we'll call that a win. The nature of its release date means it's going to do worse than its predecessors, though.
David Mumpower: I do think they have relieved people of the negative memory of Ocean's Twelve, so they should consider that a win. Ocean's Thirteen is such a tight heist movie.
Nancy Drew just couldn't solve the case of the missing box office
Kim Hollis: Nancy Drew opened to $7.1 million. Are you surprised by its failure?
David Mumpower: Absolutely. This movie had name brand recognition and it should have hit a niche that is frequently underrated at the box office. It will show solid legs throughout but this opening weekend is a marketing failure, pure and simple.
Reagen Sulewski: I had been expecting this to perform about equivalent with an Amanda Bynes/late period Hilary Duff film, so this is a little lower than I expected but not excessively so. However, the reason I had it that low in the first place is that they really hadn't done a good job with selling it in the first place.
Kim Hollis: I guess I am a little surprised by this performance. It seemed like it could fill a niche for the pre-teen girl crowd that hasn't been hit for awhile. Of course, the question is, who reads Nancy Drew anymore? She was old-fashioned when I was a kid (though I enjoyed the books).
David Mumpower: Sadly, Nancy Drew Does the Hardy Boys would have sold better.
Kim Hollis: She's too young for them! The Hardy Boys *will* do better. Er, Hardy Men.
David Mumpower: The fact that you've thought about this so much alarms me. Do you have a side gig doing Hardy Boys slash fiction?
Kim Hollis: Who doesn't? No, it's just a little icky to think of little Emma hanging out with Ben Stiller and Tom Cruise.
David Mumpower: As opposed to Cruise hanging out with lil' Joey Potter from Dawson's Creek?
Tim Briody: Don't worry, she's just a few years away from being the new Lindsey or Paris.
Kim Hollis: Nah, I think she'll be okay.
David Mumpower: You're breaking the hearts of the kind people at DListed and Perez Hilton.
Kim Hollis: I'm sure some other skank will rise to the forefront by that time.
David Mumpower: Enter Demi Moore and Bruce Willis' kid!
Tim Briody: You folks really scare me sometimes.
Penguins and gorno: no longer in fashion
Kim Hollis: Surf's Up fell 47% to $9.3 million, while the bottom fell out on Hostel: Part II, which was off 63% at $3 million. Why is box office so feast or famine these days?
Tim Briody: Movie advertising would lead you to believe that there's really only two or three movies available at your local multiplex.
David Mumpower: In addition to Tim's point, a lot of studios have decided that the entire box office run of their mediocre titles is nothing more than an extended commercial for its future life on home video. That's where all the revenue is.
Kim Hollis: I'm not sure about Surf's Up, since it's supposed to be good. Penguin fatigue (I think it's interesting that Sony actually addresses this in one of the trailers) might be a factor. As for Hostel: Part II, Lionsgate might be pushing the limits with the horror market. It could be time for them to consider a different niche.
Reagen Sulewski: I don't think Hostel's drop is so much of a surprise, given how poorly it did in the first place and given that it, you know, sucks.
David Mumpower: Summer horror is in the box office performances, not the various movies' thrills, chills and kills.
Crabman is very disappointed in all of you
Kim Hollis: Last (and least), DOA: Dead or Alive earned $232,336 from 505 venues, a per venue average of $460. Can you believe Uwe Boll wasn't involved in this video game adaptation?
Tim Briody: Based on the box office, it's a huge upset that he wasn't involved.
David Mumpower: Apparently, the thought of seeing Joy from My Name Is Earl whipping ass while rocking a bikini was not enough to entice consumers. This surprises me.
Kim Hollis: Since it's probably better than any Uwe Boll adaptation, it's a bit depressing. But this release smacked of contractual obligation.
Reagen Sulewski: I think their ad campaign was a guy handing out flyers at a Jiffy Lube in Pensacola, Florida.
David Mumpower: DOA: Dead Or Alive does not even have an official Web Site. I have been trying to recall the last time a movie could claim that. It's been like five years. I mean, buying an official site would cost like $7.95 at Go Daddy yet Dimension wouldn't even splurge for that. They might as well spit in the cast's faces.
Kim Hollis: Hell, MySpace would have been free!