Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
May 21, 2007
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: On July 4, 2006, no film had ever earned over $115 million at the box office. This weekend, Shrek the Third became (fittingly enough) the third movie in ten months to do so. It earned $122 million from 4,122 venues. What in the world is going on?
Joel Corcoran: Studios are putting out better movies that people are willing to see. Also, keep in mind that all three of the movies you mention, Kim, are from established franchises with distributors that know how to market the hell out of any film.
David Mumpower: We are seeing a wonderful combination for distributors and exhibitors. There are finally movies worth getting excited about being released after that horrible lull in the post-Lord of the Rings era. In addition, a combination of ticket price inflation and cineplex mega-blockbuster improvements that has led to this sort of uber-opening era.
Reagen Sulewski: Franchises continue to be a license to print money for studios - provided they don't screw them up. The guy that figures out exactly what the formula for a franchise is will be a very rich dude.
Kim Hollis: Movies like Pirates, Shrek and Spider-Man have become family events. It's something the entire group can do together to have fun and it's an easy, stress-free decision. People are justifiably excited to see movies again, and part of this is thanks to exhibitors making a real effort to provide a great experience - whether it's IMAX, 3-D, digital, or whatver.
Tim Briody: The three biggest movie franchises, well, ever (I'm going to get some hate mail for that one) decided to all release their third movies in the month of May 2007. It is basically safe to say that no other month will ever come close to matching the amount of money made at the box office.
David Mumpower: Joel and Tim both make a good point. There is that weird situation where the stars aligned in such a way that three films of impeccable pedigree were all determined to be bulletproof. BOP has always opined that competition is overrated, and DreamWorks, Sony and Disney have all been kind enough to take this premise to its logical extreme in May.
Tim Briody: Though it's not like Spider-Man was competition for Shrek this weekend. The real fun is this weekend when Shrek the Third's second weekend meets Jack Sparrow.
Joel Corcoran: That's another good point, Kim. I think these three films - and the franchises overall - define "fun for the whole family." Even though I still think Spider-Man 3 sucked.
David Mumpower: Tim, I disagree with you on that point. The Spider-Man franchise's performances have always been best described as family film behavior. They have had huge internal multipliers (generally in the 3.7 range) and have had massive legs...until the third one. Its behavior is frankly a model we have never seen before, at least not on this scale. I call this model, "TIMBEEEEEEEER!"
Tim Briody: Right, I was referring to Spider-Man 3's definite lack of said legs.
David Mumpower: These are Born on the Fourth of July legs.
Mike Myers and Eddie Murphy challenge Tom Hanks and Tim Allen to a grudge match
Kim Hollis: In addition to being the third biggest opener of all-time, Shrek the Third is now the most successful animated opening of all-time. Shrek 2 also already held the record for most box office (domestically and worldwide) for an animated film. What is it about Shrek that makes it so consistently popular, especially compared to Pixar and Disney films?
Tim Briody: Honestly, I'm not really sure. They're cute, entertaining and funny enough, but for Shrek 2 to outgross all of Pixar's releases is a bit of a headscratcher.
Kim Hollis: More poop jokes.
David Mumpower: I wish I could quantify that. I honestly do. I watch Shrek films and I simply don't understand the appeal. They strike me as inferior copies, dumbed down clones if you will, of Pixar's masterpieces. The fact that Shrek 2 made $35 million than Finding Nemo still blows me away three years later, as does a $122 million opening.
Reagen Sulewski: I compare Shrek to Pixar as Family Guy is to the Simpsons. The Shrek films appeal directly to the "Oh, I get jokes" crowd.
Joel Corcoran: I think the writing definitely supports Shrek's success. The scripts for these films consistently hit on a whole range of humor that can easily appeal to a variety of audiences - there's slapstick, pop culture "in jokes," and sly comments that only adults might truly get. Pixar and Disney attempt to do the same thing, but just not quite as well.
Kim Hollis: Shrek just has broader appeal and is a known quantity since the release of the first one. Pixar keeps coming up with new, original ideas, which is great for movies, but as far as pulling in a consistent audience, it's more difficult.
David Mumpower: Do you believe that the currently in-production Toy Story 3 will break this record for opening weekend, Kim? Or final box office?
Kim Hollis: I actually do think Toy Story 3 has a great shot at breaking records. If you remember, Toy Story 2 was a huge surprise for its performance at the time. Those are some truly beloved characters.
Tim Briody: It's as pre-sold as you can get, just like this.
David Mumpower: I would have argued that Shrek had become a bigger franchise than Toy Story before reviews started coming in for Shrek the Third. Now I'm thinking it's pretty close to a franchise killer unless there is a tremendous disconnect between audience opinion and movie reviews.
Reagen Sulewski: It'll take a pretty direct shot to kill the Shrek franchise. Although as we've pointed out, it's not the only kids-friendly franchise, it's probably the most kids-friendly, and that always builds in a level of protection. Hell, we got two Ice Age films after all, and those were as poorly reviewed as it gets.
Kim Hollis: And Joel, I couldn't disagree more about Pixar not doing it "as well". Their films are timeless and smart, whereas Shrek (and various other DreamWorks Animation films) rely on scatological humor and pop culture references that are stale and forgotten a few years later. Not saying I haven't enjoyed Shrek 1 and 2 for what they are, but everything Pixar has ever done is better.
Joel Corcoran: I'm not so optimistic when it comes to Toy Story 3. By the time it's released, ten years will have elapsed since Toy Story 2, and almost 15 years since the first one.
Kim Hollis: And grown-ups that watched Toy Story movies as children will now have a chance to love it with their children. It's a huge opportunity with characters that are so well loved they have toys on the shelf even though there's no matching movie in theaters and hasn't been for several years.
David Mumpower: Kim, I think the key is that quality and box office performance need to be separated here. Since we're discussing the financial performance, that's how we define "winning" on a weekly basis. From a bigger picture scale, studios make most of their money once films leave theaters. In those ancillary marketplaces, Pixar is just killing DreamWorks. The five million copies of Shrek 2 DVDs that had been destroyed are a testament to that.
Joel Corcoran: Oh, I think Pixar films are definitely better, but the range of humor isn't as encompassing. To me, the Shrek films consistently hit broader ranges of humor - including the poop jokes.
Kim Hollis: Right. I'm simply disagreeing with the idea that Shrek is more adult targeted. If anything, it's broader.
David Mumpower: Shrek films have a shorter shelf life due to the constant pop culture references. Those immediately date movies. DreamWorks acknowledged as much and consciously moved away from those in Shrek the Third, apparently to the detriment of the movie.
Joel Corcoran: I guess we're saying that broader and crappier earns more money in the short term than narrower and better.
Put on your eye patch and shoulder parrot! It's time for Pirates!
Kim Hollis: We all agree that Shrek is a staggering success. Now we're just wondering where you think Pirates 3 will fall compared to Spider-Man 3 and Shrek the Third.
Joel Corcoran: I'm sticking by what I've said before - I think Pirates 3 will beat Spider-Man and set the new box office record. Not by much, mind you, but it will exceed Spider-Man 3.
David Mumpower: I don't expect At World's End to get the three-day record over Spider-Man 3 due to the 168 minute run-time, but it's going to have an exemplary four-day holiday total of $160 million or so. I expect it to wind up with the third largest opening of all-time, slightly exceeding Shrek the Third but not quite matching Dead Man's Chest.
Kim Hollis: I've decided to waffle. I now think Pirates 3 rules them all. And I think it will have ample showings to account for the run time because it can take the screens of all the garbage still in theaters right now.
David Mumpower: Kim hits on a fascinating point. Films #3-#10 in the box office this weekend earned a combined $20 million. There is a lot of chaff and not nearly enough wheat at the movies right now.
Joel Corcoran: Make 'em all walk the plank. Let's see Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End wall-to-wall, screen-to-screen, multiplex-to-multiplex. It'll be more popular than Slurm!