Monday Morning Quarterback
By BOP Staff
April 24, 2007
BoxOfficeProphets.com
David Mumpower: We are less than two weeks away from the much anticipated debut of Spider-Man 3, so let's talk about what is on everyone's mind - Disturbia's second weekend. The movie finished in first place for the second straight weekend. How impressed are you by this?
Kim Hollis: Well, I don't know if impressed is the word I would use. But I'm sure Paramount is plenty happy with its performance so far - especially since it's one that should do quite well on DVD.
David Mumpower: More than anything else, I'm impressed by the MySpace audience and their unexpected willingness to give Hitchcock-ian cinema a chance. This might be the current generation's Body Double.
Tim Briody: It's quite impressive that it was able to break out to $22.2 million last week, and fall less than 40% in weekend two. I'm hoping this causes more teen Hitchcock adaptations, like the teen Shakespeare craze from the late ‘90s.
David Mumpower: Kim, you don't find a running total of $40.7 million after ten days impressive for a film like this?
Reagen Sulewski: It's gone against some pretty weak competition these last two weeks (April is the new January) so the consecutive number ones are less impressive to me than the overall total. But it's probably looking at $75 million when it's all said and done, which is more than I would have predicted.
David Mumpower: It's not just more than you had expected but roughly double that amount, right Reagen?
Kim Hollis: Oh, I think its overall total is probably more than anyone was expecting. But it's not like there have been a lot of options that are appealing over the past few weeks.
David Mumpower: Hmm, I seem to be a lot impressed by this performance than the rest of you. Given the fact that it's swallowed seven other openers during its first two weekends is significant. There were other options, albeit weak ones. Disturbia has toppled a lot of fare over these ten days, though, and I credit the studio as well as the movie-going public for that success.
Reagen Sulewski: I might have given it $50 million overall. It had a pretty slick ad campaign, and teen audiences have a way of latching on to these films. But it's more than I expected.
Kim Hollis: Yeah, I actually had a feeling it would do better than most were giving it credit for. It was well-marketed, and frankly, the teen demographic hasn't had much to latch onto recently.
Tim Briody: Shia LaBeouf is ready for his close-up.
Fracture is the first movie officially sponsored by Mark Prior.
David Mumpower: There were four new openers this week, and North American movie audiences collectively disregarded most of them. The "success story" is Fracture, an Anthony Hopkins thriller that earned $11.2 million. What do you make of this performance?
David Mumpower: What I take from Fracture is that you can market Hopkins in Hannibal Lecter mode all you want, but consumers are savvy enough to see a film not good enough for the Ashley Judd filmography when they see it.
Tim Briody: I swear from the commericals I thought it was another Hannibal Lecter movie.
David Mumpower: ...except for Tim.
Kim Hollis: Given that it basically appeared to be advertised as Hannibal Lecter returns - as a different guy playing against a hot young actor - I think it probably did as well as could be expected. Also, it should have a bit of staying power since reviews are pretty solid (especially user reviews).
Tim Briody: And I need to start paying more attention, as I don't remember Ryan Gosling being mentioned at all. Shouldn't the guy who scored a surprise Best Actor nomination deserve a mention?
Kim Hollis: Well, the commercials I saw had: "Academy Award winner Anthony Hopkins...Academy Award nominee Ryan Gosling." I thought he got pretty good attention. It was Academy Award nominee David Strathairn who seemed to get the shaft.
David Mumpower: I think most North American movie-going audiences know Ryan Gosling as the guy who is always getting photographed with Rachel McAdams.
Reagen Sulewski: I don't think you can expect audiences to really embraces two guys talking at each other for two hours.
Maybe if they had fought werewolves and a vampire autocracy...
David Mumpower: Continuing the theme of lousy new openers, Vacancy opened to $7.6 million from 2,551 venues. What was the biggest cause for this film's failure?
Tim Briody: Luke Wilson? Just saying.
Kim Hollis: It was a horror film with higher than 50% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes? Honestly, I think it just skewed a little too old for the typical horror crowd.
Reagen Sulewski: I don't think it quite knew what it was. It wasn't horror-skewing enough to get that crowd, but it shared enough of that to scare off the adult thriller crowd.
David Mumpower: Do you believe a younger cast would have led to a larger opening, Kim?
Kim Hollis: I think it was a combination of cast members in their 30s and a story that teens don't relate to.
David Mumpower: What if it had cast Martin Lawrence and Tim Allen instead?
Kim Hollis: $150 million!
It's A Subtle Blend of Lateral Thinking And Extreme Violence.
David Mumpower: There is some good news at the box office. Hot Fuzz, the British action spoof from the creators of Shaun of the Dead, made $5.8 million, which is comparatively better since it opened in only 825 venues. What do you think of this start?
Reagen Sulewski: I think that's a nice build on Shaun of the Dead's numbers. I'm not sure I see the Wright/Pegg/Frost trio ever breaking mainstream in the US (just too British), but they've got an excellent thing going here.
David Mumpower: Shaun of the Dead's per-venue average in its opening weekend was $5,487, so Team Spaced is well ahead of that pace, even allowing for inflation. A $25 million final tally doesn't seem that unreasonable to me. That's got to be considered a success since it would be almost double what Shaun of the Dead did ($13.5 million).
Kim Hollis: I think it might be slightly frontloaded this weekend due to fanboys like you and me rushing out to see it. I do think that after a decent run in North American theaters, it will do very well on video. And since it's already made $48 million overseas, the studios involved are surely very happy.
Tim Briody: Shawn of the Dead caught a big following among quite a few people I know on DVD, so I'm surprised it only opened in 825 theaters, but there is some nice potential word-of-mouth that could build over the next few weeks.
Reagen Sulewski: Hot Fuzz is one of those rare cases where the North American box office is the side show. It's already north of $50 million just in the UK.
David Mumpower: So, if I'm hearing everyone right, we like this performance and even if we didn't, we could never bring ourselves to bad-mouth Simon Pegg. Does that sound about right?
California, there he went.
David Mumpower: Our final new opener of the weekend is In the Land of Women, a romantic com-drama (new terminology!) starring Meg Ryan, Adam Brody and Kristen Stewart. The Warner Bros. release earned $4.9 million from 2,155 venues. What are your thoughts on this one?
Kim Hollis: My thoughts are that the studio dumped it and never expected much from it.
Reagen Sulewski: Adam Brody should invest his money wisely?
Tim Briody: He's not having a good year, that's for sure.
David Mumpower: It's time for Adam Brody to head back to the Gilmore Girls.
Tim Briody: That reunion with Lane might be a tad awkward.
Kim Hollis: Too bad Lane married and had babies with someone else.
David Mumpower: But he's a movie and television star now! At least, he used to be.
Reagen Sulewski: Also, remember when people liked Meg Ryan?
David Mumpower: Dennis Quaid must be loving this.
The. Big. Debate.
David Mumpower: Okay, let's get to the good stuff. We are 12 days away from Spider-Man 3. This release will be followed by Shrek 3 and Pirates of the Caribbean 3: At World's End. These franchises include four of the ten most successful domestic releases of all time. Right now at this second, which film do you think does the best of the three?
Kim Hollis: Pirates.
Tim Briody: Shrek.
Reagen Sulewski: I have to say Spider-Man.
David Mumpower: Yikes, that leaves me with the deciding vote. Gee, look at the time...