Weekend Forecast for April 5-7, 2007
By Reagen Sulewski
April 5, 2007
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Grindhouse is an unusual release for a couple of reasons. For one thing, it's not just one movie, but two; Quentin Tarantino and Robert Rodriguez have collaborated to each produce one half of a double feature. Also, the subject matter is one not usually reserved for big budget pictures – they both are callbacks to the days of ultra-violent, exploitative, low-budget cinema that was a hallmark of the 1960s and 1970s underground scene. Of course, these films were a heavy influence on these two directors and many of their copycats, so in a sense, this is an attempt to return to their roots, as it were.
Rodriguez's film is called Planet Terror, involving a zombie-like plague. It's also responsible for the most iconic image of the film's ad campaign - Rose McGowan with an assault rifle for a leg. It's a rather literal blend of sex and violence and possibly the birth of a new fetish. Mark this date down, people. Tarantino's film is called Death Proof, and stars Kurt Russell as the owner of a "100% death proof" car that he uses to stalk a group of women. Additionally, intercut between the films are fake trailers for other grindhouse films in the same style, though one may actually be made.
The obvious comparisons for this compilation film are from the filmographies of the respective directors, like Sin City and Kill Bill. The ultraviolent and ultrastylish 300 also shares a significant overlap with the audience for this film. Even with this pedigree and the groundwork laid by a firey spring box office, Grindhouse will be a difficult sell. At over three hours in length, it's a tough slog for even the most dedicated gore hounds, and its style is more in the realm of grit as opposed to the shine and glitz of a 300. With that in mind, this is going to be a very popular outing, and should earn in the neighborhood of $24 million this weekend.
A marginal competitor for Grindhouse is The Reaping, a biblically-based horror film that's perhaps hoping to capture some vague tie in with the holiday weekend. It stars Hilary Swank as a religious paranormal debunker called down into the Louisiana Bayou area to investigate some mysterious phenomena, like rivers turning red, swarms of locusts - you know, standard everyday stuff. These occurrences seem to be based on the seven plagues of Egypt, and are progressively getting stronger, moving all the way up to that "first born" bit.
The film is from Dark Castle, the rebirth of William Castle's old production company that has brought us such cinematic classics as Thir13en Ghosts and Gothika. What these films have provided have been some reasonably professional looking, high-concept horror films that are light on plausibility. They seem to have hit on a pretty effective hook for The Reaping, although they might be a couple years too late on the religious based horror front. Swank is more or less a blank slate as far as star power goes for this – she's a well known name that adds credibility, but not a star that anyone would deliberately seek out in a film, a la Naomi Watts and The Ring. I give this one about a $13 million opening weekend, based mostly on some slick ads and one spooky catchphrase.
Ice Cube's latest attempt to throw all his credibility down the toilet is next, with Are We Done Yet? The former gangsta rapper follows up his family roadtrip comedy Are We There Yet? with this film, an indirect remake of Mr. Blandings Builds His Dream House. Moving out to the suburbs, Ice Cube and his family decide to renovate their suburban castle more to their liking. Many pratfalls and much hilarity hopefully ensue.
Are We There Yet? opened to a surprising $18.5 million two years ago and earned over $80 million total, which was the reason that this sequel was greenlit despite horrid reviews. It has already opened on Wednesday, so we have some partial results, and they seem to say that it was a bit of a mistake. Its first day total was $2 million, a mediocre number, and only third on the day. As a family film, that number should improve on the weekend, but it's already fighting from a hole. Its weekend total should be in the area of $12 million.
Finally, we have another family film that opened on Wednesday, Firehouse Dog. This feels like a bit of a joke or a prank, but sadly it's real. It centers around a dog named Rexxx (an... unfortunate spelling) who is Hollywood's top extreme animal star. After he gets lost, he's adopted into a rundown firehouse. Before you can say "let's put on a show!", he's helping the firehouse to get back on its feet. Of course, Hollywood is calling and wants its star back (the same thing happened to Cary Grant after a bender back in the day), leading to the inevitable conflict between those two natural enemies – fireman versus studio executives.
This film is strictly for the PG set, and maybe not even them, as reviews have been pretty execrable. Its opening Wednesday was a meager $600,000, eighth on the day. It looks headed for a total of about $5 million on the weekend, and that might even been optimistic.
Blades of Glory was last week's winner, earning $33 million. This represented a bit of a step down for Will Ferrell, and a step up for Jon Heder, his co-star. Both are kind of off-putting to a lot of film fans, and sticking them both in the same film probably depressed Ferrell's audience. The figure skating setting was also a pretty big contrast to the NASCAR setting of Talladega Nights. Still, $33 million is nothing to sniff at, and it could approach the $100 million mark eventually. For this weekend, it should bring in around $18 million.
Meet the Robinsons made a serious challenge for top spot, earning $25 million. The sci-fi family film came from Disney's non-Pixar animation studio but was produced by John Lasseter, which gave it a pretty good pedigree. A lot of this business seems to be based on one joke from the trailer involving a T-Rex and a tight space. Family films tend to hand on pretty well, but this seems pretty plain overall. Look for about $14 million this weekend.
300 continues its march towards $200 million, ending last weekend just $20 million short. It faces a pretty direct competitor for the violence-seeking demo in Grindhouse, which might knock it down a bit, but its die is basically cast. Add another $6 million to its total this weekend.
One notable limited release this weekend is The Hoax, starring Richard Gere. Based on the story of a man who claimed to have the memoirs of Howard Hughes, it's a broadly comic film about the power of a scam, about how a big lie can more easily be believed than a small one. Opening in 235 venues, it could see about $1 million of business this weekend.