Box Office Prophets: Tim Briody's Internal Multiplier Analysis

Reese leaves Chan in Pieces

By Tim Briody

No, I don't have any idea who the two guys are either but hey look, it's Reese Witherspoon!

Sweet Home Alabama, where the skies are so...green? If you're Reese Witherspoon, they sure are.

Sweet Home Alabama

Sweet Home Alabama scored an impressive estimated $12.8 million Friday. Reese Witherspoon is now solidified as a box office draw and, perhaps more importantly, assumes the romantic-comedy actress crown. Look for her to be attached to every other script that is bought for the next year. Also look for Sweet Home Alabama to end up with $38 million for the weekend.

The Tuxedo

Jackie Chan's The Tuxedo managed an estimated $4.5 million Friday. The ads were weak, and Jennifer Love Hewitt is no Chris Tucker and she definitely is no Owen Wilson. Suddenly, Rush Hour 3 may not be all that far away anymore. The Chan/Hewitt vehicle should finish with $12.6 million for the weekend.

Notable Holdovers

A little controversy can sometimes be a good thing. Barbershop is off just a hair (sorry) over 25% from last Friday with an estimated $2.9 million. The MGM film continues its profitable run with a $9.5 million weekend.

The news isn't nearly as good for any of last week's openers. The Banger Sisters has a Friday-to-Friday decline of 45% with an estimated $1.8 million, The Four Feathers drops 49% with $1.8 million, and Ballistic: Ecks vs. Sever plunges a whopping 66% from last week with $810,000. The first two films should see overall weekend drops in the lower 40% range, while Ballistic will be lucky to get away with a 60% decline.

Check back tomorrow for the full weekend numbers and analysis.

Extrapolated Estimates for the Top Ten

Projected
Rank

Film

Estimated Gross (M$)

1

Sweet Home Alabama

38.0

2

The Tuxedo

12.6

3

My Big Fat Greek Wedding

9.7

4

Barbershop

9.5

5

The Banger Sisters

6.0

6

The Four Feathers

3.9

7

One Hour Photo

3.2

8

Ballistic: Ecks Vs. Sever

2.8

9

Signs

2.5

10

Stealing Harvard

1.6

Internal multiplier = A comparison of Friday's numbers to the rest of the weekend. So if Sweet Home Alabama makes $5.1 million on Friday and $17.8 million for the whole weekend, then its internal multiplier is 3.5 ($17.8 million / $5.1 million = 3.5). Analysts use this number in reverse to predict weekend numbers from Friday's numbers.