Box Office Prophets: Tim Briody's Internal Multiplier Analysis

J-Lo and Trek Neck and Neck

By Tim Briody

December 14, 2002

If you're going to binge, you better purge.

In a weekend with three high profile releases, which one has the biggest reason to celebrate with the Friday estimates? The fourth place film and the smallest opener, focusing on, of all things, drum playing.

Star Trek: Nemesis

The tenth film in the Star Trek franchise beamed up a $7.67 million Friday in 2,711 theaters. The Trek-record opening of $30.7 million for First Contact is safe, but Nemesis needs a little help in the internal multiplier department to match the $22 million Insurrection opened to this weekend four years ago. Since this is pretty much the definition of a fanboy film, that may be too much to ask. Look for it to finish the weekend with $20-21 million.

Maid in Manhattan

The Jennifer Lopez rags-to-riches story cleaned up nicely with a $6.58 million Friday. Opening in 2,838 theaters, the romantic comedy may have been second to Star Trek for Friday, but since it's a different type of film, it stands a much better chance of taking the top spot when the final numbers are in. Of course, that depends on the liberties taken by Paramount and/or Sony Sunday morning. Maid in Manhattan should squeeze by with $21 million for the weekend, neck and neck with Nemesis.

The Hot Chick

It was a good run while it lasted for Rob Schneider. The Hot Chick only managed $2.6 million Friday in 2,217 theaters. It can only hope it treads water long enough to make it past Christmas, which isn't very likely. The Hot Chick should end up with $7.2 million for the weekend.

Drumline

The one film that is pretty much assured of exceeding expectations this weekend is Drumline. Despite only being in 1,836 theaters, it took in a decent $4.12 million Friday. Behold the power of solid marketing. While its future past this weekend is uncertain, the likely $11.5 million opening weekend is a good start.

Notable Holdovers

Analyze That falls 56.8% from last Friday with $1.63 million. The DeNiro/Crystal sequel will be down over 50% from last weekend and even anything over $25 million is starting to look like a big stretch.

After a respectable opening weekend, Empire crumbles, down 58% from last Friday with $875,000. It'll be down around 55% from last weekend with $2.2 million.

Check back tomorrow for John Hamman's full weekend estimates and analysis.

Extrapolated Estimates for the Top Ten

Projected
Rank

Film

Estimated Gross (M$)

1

Maid in Manhattan

20.5

2

Star Trek: Nemesis

20.0

3

Drumline

11.5

4

Die Another Day

7.9

5

The Hot Chick

7.2

6

Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets

5.2

7

Analyze That

5.0

8

The Santa Clause

3.0

9

Empire

2.2

10

Treasure Planet

2.1

Internal multiplier = A comparison of Friday's numbers to the rest of the weekend. So if Maid in Manhattan makes $5.1 million on Friday and $17.8 million for the whole weekend, then its internal multiplier is 3.5 ($17.8 million / $5.1 million = 3.5). Analysts use this number in reverse to predict weekend numbers from Friday's numbers.