Box Office Prophets: Tim Briody's Friday Numbers Analysis

Friday Numbers Analysis

By Tim Briody

November 29, 2003

Dude, have you seen Tyrese or Vin Diesel?

Black Friday isn't just a good day for retailers; it's a good day for Hollywood, too. Last week's openers had miniscule Friday-to-Friday dropoffs, and successful holdovers and family films like Elf and Brother Bear increased signifigantly from a week ago. And unlike previous Thanksgiving weekends, there's really only one turkey that hit theaters this week, and two certified hits.

The Haunted Mansion

Eddie Murphy's family film earned an estimated $9.6 million Friday, bringing it to $19.2 million after three days. The downside to the box office bonanza that is Black Friday is signifigantly below average internal multipliers. Look for The Haunted Mansion to finish the weekend with $23 million for the weekend and $32.6 million for the five-day holiday.

Bad Santa

The black comedy did moderately okay on Black Friday, earning and estimated $4.6 million, giving the Billy Bob Thornton film $9.4 million in three days. Being more adult friendly, Bad Santa will make $11.5 million over the three-day weekend and $16.3 million over the five-day weekend.

The Missing

Ron Howard's Oscar bait made an estimated $4.3 million Friday and is just under $9 million since Wednesday. This is a fairly disappointing number for the Sony release considering the names involved, but it's no Timeline. The Missing should find itself with $10.7 million for the Friday - Sunday period and $15.3 million from Wednesday - Sunday.

Timeline

The one definite disappointment among the Thanksgiving openers, Timeline earned an estimated $3.5 million Friday and stands at $7.7 million after three days. Give the Michael Crichton book turned box office flop $8 million over the entire weekend, for a five day total of $12.2 million.

Notable Holdovers

After being the only film in the top ten to stumble from Wednesday to Thursday, The Cat in the Hat recovered Friday, earning $10.5 million, off just a hair from a week ago. It's going to be a close race at the top between The Cat in the Hat, The Haunted Mansion and Elf, but the Dr. Seuss adaptation should end up with a second weekend at the top over the three-day weekend.

Elf continues its remarkable run, up 72% from last Friday. It won't continue at that pace over the rest of the weekend, but the Will Ferrell comedy is now clearly the big winner of the season.

Gothika drops 26.1% from last Friday, which is worse news than you'd think as it's the only holdover that showed a signifigant decline from last Friday. Look for its overall weekend decline to be closer to 40%.

Extrapolated Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)

Projected
Rank

Film

Estimated Gross (M$)

1

The Cat in the Hat

25.6

2

Elf

23.5

3

The Haunted Mansion

23.0

4

Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World

12.6

5

Gothika

12.1

6

Bad Santa

11.5

7

The Missing

10.7

8

Brother Bear

8.4

9

Love Actually

8.2

10

Timeline

8.0