Box Office Prophets: Tim Briody's Friday Numbers Analysis

Friday Numbers Analysis

By Tim Briody

October 25, 2003

I still can't believe I'm married to Denise Richards in real life!

After the disappointing earnings of Scary Movie 2 compared to the first film released just a year earlier, a third entry in the franchise seemed unthinkable. But never underestimate the combined powers of spoof veterans Charlie Sheen and David Zucker. Scary Movie 3 will shatter the October opening record set last year by Red Dragon.

Scary Movie 3

Scary Movie 3 earned an estimated $18.6 million Friday, putting it in territory not even attained by the first film in the spoof series. Behold the power of a hilarious trailer and advertising, which the first film also had (and the second didn't).

2000's Scary Movie earned $15 million on its opening day on its way to a $42.3 million opening. The 2.81 internal multiplier will be tough to duplicate here (though Scary Movie 2 had a 2.86 multiplier with a much lower Friday number), but a 2.65 and tremendous $49 million opening (a new October record) won't leave the Weinsteins crying in their beers.

Radio

Cuba Gooding Jr.'s feel-good film gets off to a pretty decent start with an estimated $4.5 million Friday. If any older viewers can find parking spots left at the theater while all the younger audiences are seeing Scary Movie 3, then Radio should be on its way to a 3.1 multiplier and quite good $13.6 million start.

Beyond Borders

The news is not as good for Angelina Jolie's Beyond Borders. With just a measly $710,000 on Friday, this becomes her fourth consecutive box office disappointment and/or outright bomb. Beyond Borders will be lucky to squeak into the top ten with a $2 million weekend.

Notable Holdovers

The Texas Chainsaw Massacre drops 53% from last Friday, which is pretty good considering how much of its audience could have been siphoned off by Scary Movie 3. An overall weekend decline of around 45% is in store.

Runaway Jury may be able to leg it out through the fall with just a 34% decline from the previous Friday and likely weekend decline of under 30%. The same goes for Oscar-bait Mystic River, which fell just 31% and can be down as little as 25% for the entire weekend.

Extrapolated Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)

Projected
Rank

Film

Estimated Gross (M$)

1

Scary Movie 3

49.0

2

The Texas Chainsaw Massacre

15.4

3

Radio

13.6

4

Runaway Jury

8.3

5

Mystic River

7.6

6

Kill Bill Volume 1

6.7

7

The School of Rock

6.3

8

Good Boy!

4.6

9

Intolerable Cruelty

3.6

10

Beyond Borders

2.0