Friday Numbers Analysis

By Tim Briody

September 13, 2003

Now go away before I taunt you a second time!

Robert Rodriguez and Johnny Depp each cap off a spectacular 2003 as Once Upon a Time in Mexico jolts the box office out of the post-summer doldrums.

Once Upon a Time in Mexico

The third entry in the El Mariachi series opened with a fantastic $9.4 million estimated Friday. Three definitely seems to be the magic number for director Robert Rodriguez. FIrst, Spy Kids 3-D goes on to be the highest grossing film in that series, something unheard of in this era of sequelitis. Now, Once Upon a Time in Mexico has a chance to outearn 1995's Desperado in its opening weekend, as it should end up with a stellar $26.3 million over its first three days.

Matchstick Men

The Nicholas Cage/Sam Rockwell con-men pic earned a not-bad $4.1 million Friday. While the adult-skewing nature of the film and solid reviews will help it to a 3.0 multiplier and $12.3 million weekend, it'll need great word-of-mouth over the next few weeks to become a serious Oscar contender.

Cabin Fever

This weekend's horror release gets off to an estimated $3.1 million start. Despite strong reviews, the standard horror multiplier will still apply here, so look for Cabin Fever to finish the weekend with a still-pretty-good $8.1 million.

Notable Holdovers

While it's a bit of a stretch to call it notable, Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star falls jut 33%, but the rest of the weekend will not be as kind. Look for a drop of around 40% total and a weekend of $4 million.

Extrapolated Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross (M$)
1
Once Upon a Time in Mexico
26.3
2
Matchstick Men
12.3
3
Cabin Fever
8.1
4
Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
4.2
5
Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star
4.0
6
Freaky Friday
3.8
7
S.W.A.T.
2.7
8
Jeepers Creepers 2
2.6
9
Open Range
2.6
10
Seabiscuit
2.5