Friday Numbers Analysis

By Tim Briody

June 7, 2003

Hey, can you set me up with Knight Rider?

The revolving door at the top of the box office continues as this weekend provides definitive proof that the lack of Vin Diesel and a stupid title won't keep people away from a movie.

2 Fast 2 Furious

The only new offering this week, 2 Fast 2 Furious made an estimated $20.5 million Friday, which beats the first film's $14.7 million Friday number, not unusual for a sequel.

Based on recent history, 2 Fast 2 Furious isn't likely to end up with a great multiplier. The most obvious comparison, The Fast and the Furious, had a 2.72 internal multiplier en route to a $40 million weekend.

Other comparisons of note:

xXx - 2.57
Tomb Raider - 2.71
Planet of the Apes - 2.73
Rush Hour 2 - 2.98
8 Mile - 2.62

Given this info, the best range for 2 Fast 2 Furious is in the 2.6-2.7 range. We'll split that right down the middle and give it a 2.65 weekend multiplier, giving the film a decent $54.3 million for the weekend.

Finding Nemo

Down 40.3% from last Friday, which is a bit higher than expected, Finding Nemo becomes the latest summer blockbuster that spends just one week at the top of the box office with an estimated $12.3 million on Friday. There are two consolations here. First, it passes $100 million in its eighth day of release, which is still impressive even in these days of The Matrix. Second, it will recover nicely over the rest of the weekend, and end up with an overall decline in the lower 30% range. Look for Nemo to finish the weekend with around $46 million.

Notable Holdovers

Off just 36.1% from last Friday, The Italian Job has a chance of being one of the sleeper hits of the summer, if it can keep it up. It should end up down 30% for the weekend.

Extrapolated Estimates for the Top Ten
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross (M$)
1
2 Fast 2 Furious
54.3
2
Finding Nemo
46.7
3
Bruce Almighty
21.2
4
The Italian Job
13.6
5
The Matrix Reloaded
9.1
6
Daddy Day Care
4.8
7
X2: X-Men United
3.1
8
Wrong Turn
2.2
9
The In-Laws
1.8
10
Bend It Like Beckham
1.0