Box Office Prophets: Tim Briody's Friday Numbers Analysis

BRUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCE!

By Tim Briody

May 24, 2003

Wow, that Phoebe is great in Buffay the Vampire Layer.

Maybe this time Jim Carrey has learned his lesson: stick to comedies. Bruce Almighty did something so shocking Friday, one may think a higher power (one not played by Morgan Freeman) was involved. In other news, go ahead and see Matrix Reloaded for the second time this weekend; you'll have a bit of room to stretch out in the theater.

Bruce Almighty

The normal-guy-gets-God's-powers comedy earned an estimated $20.8 million Friday. This number makes it a lock to be Jim Carrey's biggest opening ever, topping The Grinch's $55 million in 2000. While it will easily break the record comedy opening over the four-day weekend, Bruce Almighty could even top the opening mark of last year's Austin Powers in Goldmember from just Friday through Sunday.

Major props go to the marketing department here. It showed Carrey in his element, being funny. And it didn't give away the entire film in its advertising blitz (I'm still looking at you, Anger Management). Bruce Almighty should end up with a four-day total of $89.4 million.

The In-Laws

An estimated $2 million Friday is all the Michael Douglas/Albert Brooks vehicle could muster. It was a nice attempt at counter-programming, but when there multiple 800-pound gorillas out there that span across multiple demographics, it's hard to do much better than that. The remake looks likely to end the Memorial Day weekend with around $9 million.

The Matrix Reloaded

Whoa. That's really all that can be said to describe the second week collapse of the first of the two Matrix sequels this year. Considering the size of the opening, a large drop was to be expected, but 63% is a bit of a surprise.

With an $11.6 million Friday, Reloaded has a chance to recover a bit over the weekend, but it's pretty clear now that word-of-mouth falls on the "huh?" side of things, and while this is the type of film that clearly needs to be seen at least twice to be fully understood, it's just too confusing for some people to want to see it again. It will pass $200 million easily by the end of the weekend, but it appears that asking for $300 million may be too much. Give it a four-day weekend number of $44.1 million.

Extrapolated Estimates for the Top Ten

Projected
Rank

Film

Estimated Gross (M$)

1

Bruce Almighty

89.4

2

The Matrix Reloaded

44.1

3

Daddy Day Care

15.7

4

X2: X-Men United

11.6

5

The In-Laws

9.0

6

Down with Love

5.3

7

The Lizzie McGuire Movie

3.7

8

Holes

2.7

9

Identity

2.5

10

Anger Management

2.2