Box Office Prophets: Tim Briody's Friday Numbers Analysis

Friday Numbers Analysis

By Tim Briody

May 3, 2003

He's on about The Blue Man Group again.

X2: X-Men United

The superhero sequel starts things off nicely with an estimated $33.9 million Friday take. X-Men had an internal multiplier of 2.62 in July of 2000, and there's really no reason to expect anything but the same fanboy behavior from X2. Still, since it's May and not the middle of summer, we can bump that up to around 2.7 and give X2 a nifty $91.5 million for the weekend.

The Lizzie McGuire Movie

The Disney show turned movie earned an estimated $5.9 million Friday, a number that seems small compared to X2, but throw in a little perspective and it's pretty darn good. This won't fall to the same Friday rush that X2 got, so Lizzie McGuire should end up with a very impressive $18.7 million opening weekend.

Notable Holdovers

Like you care about anything else. Anyway, despite the word of mouth, Identity falls a to-be-expected-with-the-presence-of-X2 48.4% from last Friday, but it should recover over the rest of the weekend and see a decline of around 40%. Elsewhere, Confidence and It Runs In The Family both see declines of nearly 50% from last Friday, and both will be down about that much against over the weekend.

Extrapolated Estimates for the Top Ten

Projected
Rank

Film

Estimated Gross (M$)

1

X2: X-Men United

91.5

2

The Lizzie McGuire Movie

18.7

3

Identity

9.8

4

Anger Management

8.5

5

Holes

6.5

6

Malibu's Most Wanted

4.0

7

Confidence

2.5

8

It Runs in the Family

1.6

9

Bulletproof Monk

1.5

10

Phone Booth

1.4