Box Office Prophets: Tim Briody's Friday Numbers Analysis

Friday Numbers Analysis

By Tim Briody

April 26, 2003

Jack & Jill's Truth About Romeo was the best theme song ever.

We're just a week away from the start of the summer movie season, when X2 will outgross all these films combined, but there were still four new wide releases this weekend, with one surprise hit and two spectacular flops.

Identity

Identity keeps the number one spot warm for X2, as it earned a solid $6.2 million Friday. The marketing didn't blow anyone away, but it certainly intrigued viewers enough to get them interested. Thrillers (and John Cusack films) tend to bring out a few more folks on Friday, but $18 million for the weekend and a good chance for legs is a great start.

Confidence

The Lions Gate caper film earned an estimated $1.5 million Friday. This was probably a best case scenario. It's not a breakout hit (unlike Identity) and not a complete bomb (unlike two other films), so most of the ink is focused on the other releases this weekend. Confidence will end up with a quiet $4.8 million this weekend, followed by a quick trip to the dollar theaters.

The Real Cancun

This is the story (true story!) of a film that bombed massively. A bunch of strangers, so there were no actors to pay. Forced to appear in a film that earned $960,000 Friday. Bunin-Murray Productions found out what happens when viewers have to start paying for content they were used to getting for free on MTV. The Real Cancun: $2.6 million for the weekend.

It Runs in the Family

Just as The Real Cancun taught everyone that reality television won't work on the big screen, an estimated $867,000 gross for It Runs In The Family teaches that home movies won't work theatrically, either. Its only consolation is that it won't have the worst per screen average in the top ten, thanks to playing in only 1,207 theaters. A generous adult-skewing multiplier gives It Runs In The Family $2.8 million for the weekend.

Notable Holdovers

Anger Management falls a surprising 55% from last Friday. Most of this can be attributed to Easter being last weekend, and while it's still a lock for $100 million on Sunday, its prospects beyond that are starting to look doubtful, especially when the real heavy hitters start coming next week. Anger Management takes the second spot with $17.4 million.

Malibu's Most Wanted drops an inexplicable 23% from last Friday. If there's a film that wasn't going to be affected much by Easter, this was it. Still, this film is somehow turning into a sleeper hit.

Holes falls a misleading 48% from last Friday, which can be pegged entirely on the fact that many younger viewers are off on Good Friday. It should recover nicely for the weekend, with about a 30% drop and $11.4 million.

Bulletproof Monk plunges a less-surprising 56.7% from last Friday. It'll be down around 50% for the weekend, and collects with the rest of the dead wood in the bottom half of the top ten.

Check back tomorrow for the full weekend estimates and analysis.

Extrapolated Estimates for the Top Ten

Projected
Rank

Film

Estimated Gross (M$)

1

Identity

18.0

2

Anger Management

17.4

3

Holes

11.4

4

Malibu's Most Wanted/div>

9.4

5

Confidence

4.8

6

Bulletproof Monk

4.3

7

What a Girl Wants

3.6

8

Phone Booth

3.3

9

It Runs in the Family

2.8

10

The Real Cancun

2.6