Box Office Prophets: Tim Briody's Friday Numbers Analysis

Friday Numbers Analysis

By Tim Briody

March 15, 2003

Next week, on Oscar Winner Survivor.

What do you get when you release two films that are basically knockoffs of other hit films, and an update of an obscure '70s horror film? Bringing Down the House at number one, of course.

The Hunted

Earning an estimated $4.8 million Friday, The Fugitive retread can forget about approaching Double Jeopardy. It won't even match the opening of 1998's U.S. Marshalls, which earned $16.8 million. Even a generous adult-skewing 3.2 multiplier gives The Hunted $15.3 million for the weekend.

Agent Cody Banks

Another Spy Kids it's not, but it's still not bad. A Friday estimate of $3.8 million could put the brakes on any franchise prospects, unless it can show overly impressive legs in the following weeks. Still, a kid-friendly 4.4 multiplier will give it $16 for the weekend, and with a fairly inexpensive budget it will be profitable for hit-starved MGM, so there may likely be a Cody Banks 2 somewhere down the line.

Willard

Rats. A $1.3 million estimate for the Crispin Glover horror flick was probably a best case scenario, but when you have something as uncommerical as this film, you take what you can get. Willard should finish with $4.9 million for the weekend.

Notable Holdovers

Bringing Down the House may be in for a leggy run. Down just 29% from last Friday, the Steve Martin/Queen Latifah hit should finish the weekend down around 25%, and can start looking forward to the $100 million mark.

The executives behind Tears of the Sun will probably be shedding tears this weekend. The Bruce Willis vehicle falls 55% from last Friday, and should be in for a 50% drop overall.

And as we near the Academy Awards, frontrunner Chicago actually has a 10% increase from last Friday with no change in screens. After this weekend, it'll be full speed ahead for $150 million, especially after the Oscars.

Extrapolated Estimates for the Top Ten

Projected
Rank

Film

Estimated Gross (M$)

1

Bringing Down the House

23.5

2

Agent Cody Banks

16.0

3

The Hunted

15.3

4

Tears of the Sun

8.5

5

Chicago

7.5

6

Old School

6.6

7

How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days

5.0

8

Willard

4.9

9

Daredevil

2.6

10

Cradle 2 the Grave

2.4