Friday Numbers Analysis

By Tim Briody

March 6, 2004

I think they do their shopping at the same store.

Starsky and Hutch

Don't give up on them, baby. The Ben Stiller/Owen Wilson remake of the '70s cop show earned a very solid estimated $9.8 million Friday. 2001's underrated Zoolander managed a 3.2 multiplier off a Friday take of $4.9 million, so look for Starsky & Hutch to have a multiplier of around 3.0 and an impressive weekend total of $29.4 million.

Hidalgo

Viggo Mortensen's first post-Lord of the Rings film earned a not-bad estimated $5.9 million Friday. The horse racing drama should benefit from an adult (and Viggo fangirl) skewing multiplier of 3.1, for a decent weekend total of $18.3 million.

The Passion of the Christ

It falls 41.6% from last Friday, but The Passion of the Christ will once again lead the box office. The decline seems high, but factoring in the massive weekday takes and the fact that Friday was the lowest daily figure of its three-day weekend (even Academy Awards Sunday topped it), there's nothing to worry about. In fact, don't be too surprised if it easily tops the 3.66 multiplier from last weekend, giving The Passion of the Christ a weekend of $52.1 million and putting it over $200 million after just 12 days in release.

Notable Holdovers

Further stretching the definition of notable, we have Twisted and Dirty Dancing: Havana Nights. Twisted drops 46% from last Friday and Dirty Dancing drops 55%. Both films can expect overall weekend drops of similar percentages.

Extrapolated Friday-Sunday Estimates for the Top Ten
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross (M$)
1
The Passion of the Christ
52.1
2
Starsky and Hutch
29.4
3
Hidalgo
18.3
4
50 First Dates
7.7
5
Twisted
4.9
6
Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen
4.0
7
The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
3.3
8
Dirty Dancing: Havana Nights
2.6
9
Miracle
2.5
10
Monster
2.2