Box Office Prophets: Tim Briody's Friday Numbers Analysis

Valentine's Day Is Dated

By Tim Briody

February 14, 2004

Yes, I am a pirate. 200 years too late.

50 First Dates

With a first day estimated figure of $10.5 million, one can't help but feel underwhelmed by the performance of 50 First Dates. Even still, that's not a number to sneeze at, and it will certainly see a decent boost on Valentine's Day.

The best comparison here is clearly The Wedding Singer, and though we're dealing with much larger numbers, a 3.6 multiplier for the weekend seems like a safe bet. That places 50 First Dates at $37.8 million for the weekend, though don't be too shocked if studio estimates nudge it to $40 million.

Notable Holdovers

Barbershop 2: Back In Business plummets 65% in its second Friday. Textbook sequel-itis is at work here, and even if it cuts its losses to 60%, it's looking to fall under $10 million for the weekend.

Miracle falls 44% from last Friday. That's perhaps a bit more than expected, but it's not in as bad shape as Barbershop 2. Give it an overall decline of under 40% for the weekend, and much lower drops from here on out.

Catch That Kid is off just 27%, largely thanks to schools being closed for the holiday weekend. The overall weekend decline could be as low as 20%.

Extrapolated Friday-Sunday Estimates for the Top Ten

Projected
Rank

Film

Estimated Gross (M$)

1

50 First Dates

37.8

2

Miracle

12.0

3

Barbershop 2: Back in Business

9.7

4

Catch That Kid

4.6

5

The Butterfly Effect

4.2

6

The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King

3.7

7

You Got Served

3.6

8

Along Came Polly

3.4

9

Mystic River

3.0

10

Monster

2.7