Friday Numbers Analysis

By Tim Briody

January 10, 2004

I don't want to alarm you, but there seems to be a car perched and ready to attack.

Big Fish

Expanding to over 2,400 screens, Big Fish vaults over every other film in release to the top spot at the box office. Earning an estimated $4.5 million Friday, the Tim Burton film was aided by critical acclaim and Golden Globe nominations to surpass even Return of the King. Credit BOP's Kim Hollis with a nice call. Look for Big Fish to finish the weekend with $16.9 million.

My Baby's Daddy

The Eddie Griffin comedy started off with an estimated $2.5 million Friday. The number is a bit disappointing for the studio, but we do have to remember that it is January, after all. My Baby's Daddy should finish the weekend with around $6.7 million.

Chasing Liberty

The Mandy Moore presidential teen romance film earned a meager $2.4 million Friday. For some reason, the target audience did not bite on this one, so it's much closer to last year's How To Deal rather than 2002's A Walk to Remember. Both of her previous starring roles had miserable multipliers as well, so Chasing Liberty will end up with $6 million for the weekend.

The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King

The hobbits crossed the $300 million mark Friday, with an estimated $3.5 million. It now stands at $302 million after just 24 days in theaters. It took The Two Towers 34 days to do that and Fellowship of the Ring a whopping 102. Now that we're out of the holiday season, its daily takes will dwindle from here(it's down 66% from last Friday), but the $339 million earned by The Two Towers is looking like dead meat in a matter of weeks. Big Fish will nudge it out of the top spot this weekend, but not after more box office history will have been made.

Extrapolated Thursday-Sunday Estimates for the Top Ten
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross (M$)
1
Big Fish
16.9
2
The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
14.0
3
Cheaper by the Dozen
10.2
4
Something's Gotta Give
8.7
5
Cold Mountain
8.3
6
My Baby's Daddy
6.7
7
Chasing Liberty
6.0
8
Paycheck
5.7
9
Mona Lisa Smile
4.9
10
The Last Samurai
4.6